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I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

Foo2rama
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Flintlock Flintlock
What I don't understand is the grey market availability of a hot seller. If ADs are reselling to dealers at above list price isn't corporate concerned? That would have to be the only motive as the ADs don't have to discount to move product. I imagine corporate gets a boost by not honoring warranty on those sales, even though they have been paid in full. You'd think they'd just raise prices to match the scalpers.

Because AD’s are not doing that. They cannot sell over MSRP. And third party resellers are not selling as many as you think.
 
Flintlock
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If ADs sell to a grey market re-seller does the company know what the price is, or even know of the sale?
If that product is then sold sans warranty does that reduce the allowance for warranty repairs expensed each period?

I couldn't guess at the quantity of 3rd party sales. I just read on here and I notice they are available on the flea bay. Obviously many aren't dealers, just people looking to make a buck. It happens with cameras when a new model comes out. They get pre-ordered and sold out by persons who sell on the Bay for a profit.
 
Foo2rama
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Flintlock Flintlock
If ADs sell to a grey market re-seller does the company know what the price is, or even know of the sale?
If that product is then sold sans warranty does that reduce the allowance for warranty repairs expensed each period?

I couldn't guess at the quantity of 3rd party sales. I just read on here and I notice they are available on the flea bay. Obviously many aren't dealers, just people looking to make a buck. It happens with cameras when a new model comes out. They get pre-ordered and sold out by persons who sell on the Bay for a profit.

There are a lot of speculators. Look if you got a BLNR... wouldn’t you flip it?
 
Waxtactic
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Couple of things to comment on:

1) Rolex has been known for buying a watch or two on the grey market if its BNIB and tracing it back to the AD. If they find an employee or owner is flipping they consider revoking their license to sell.
2) My hunch on the SS market is that they constrain production bc when people go in for one and only find precious metal or DJ’s (date justs) they’ll opt for those instead of waiting for a SS. This bolsters the revenue from their more available models and creates a revenue foundation. In addition, limitation creates hype and we can see the fruits of that labor right here in this thread.
3) I have seen a SeaDweller and SS YM’s in the cases, but I havent see a sub in a super long time.
 
J
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I've seen a few Explorer IIs and mil-gauss, that's it for SS sport rolex watches in every AD I've looked at in Charlotte, Atlanta, Portland, and Boston. Some PM and TT varieties though. Never seen a new GMT of any type. I've seen all of them USED in every jewelry store that sells watches. EVERY SINGLE ONE. The watches are out there, it is just the market value over retail means that an AD can easily bundle them with traditional slow selling PM or dress watches or reserve them for high income buyers. Clearly a significant, perhaps even majority, amount get flipped very quickly (within a few months of ownership) and put into the GM. Rolex may know this and be wary of it continuing, so they don't raise pricing or production. They may not even understand how to remedy the situation. They may LIKE it, as their ADs certainly must be happy if they are selling stuff out the back door immediately upon receipt.

But for the occasional watch buyer, or the rolex enthusiast without deep pockets, this is a disaster. You can't walk into an AD and get ANY sport model for a retirement present or wedding/graduation gift. Even the OPs and DJs are hit or miss, especially for the more popular dial colors. The scarcity on the shelf is so profound I think the sport models will actually fade from public awareness because no one ever sees one.

I see very few 6 digit sport models on wrist. Plenty of 5 digit models. I know one guy with a TT sub and another with an expII. All the rest I see out in the wild are older watches. This is gonna be a problem for Rolex in the long term I think. They are either going to drastically trim down ADs to concentrate inventory (essentially abandoning small to mid sized cities) or will have to significantly alter their production ratio to boost SS sport model production and get them back on the shelf. ADs ought to get more stuff that sells and fewer mandated shelf toads that force them to bundle. They may even split their product line to make stuff that more appeals to the Asian market in order to preserve some stock for the western market.

Rolex is an everyman's aspirational watch, not a wealthy mans aspirational watch, IMHO. If this situation is a ploy to "move up" in the ranks I'm not sure how successful it will be unless they significantly reduce production, raise prices, and curtail retail outlets.
 
Foo2rama
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@jason10mm

Every rep at every Rolex store is pissed. They are making way less commission then they used to as there is nothing to sell but DJ’s.

Watches are not going out the back door.

The whole Rolex Boutique staff at a major jeweler quit as they where no longer making commission and could not sell other brands inside the same attached jeweler. The Staff at the main Rolex boutique in my area has all left to the other watch brands located in the same mall. Never the same people in it high turnover.
Edited:
 
IDXM
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Besides alienating your sales staff, just don’t see how this can be viable business model in the long-term. At a certain point the substitution effect will take and people will look for something else. Also, it just looks bad that little is available and only VIPs get the good stuff. My guess is the pendulum will swing back to greater availability, but maybe not to previous heights.
 
J
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Foo2rama Foo2rama
@jason10mm

Every rep at every Rolex store is pissed. They are making way less commission then they used to as there is nothing to sell but DJ’s.

Watches are not going out the back door.

The whole Rolex Boutique staff at a major jeweler quit as they where no longer making commission and could not sell other brands inside the same attached jeweler. The Staff at the main Rolex boutique in my area has all left to the other watch brands located in the same mall. Never the same 2 people in it.

If true then this is great news. Rolex will have to respond. They may trim ADs, but I think they will increase SS sport watch production instead.
 
blufinz52
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J jason10mm
I've seen a few Explorer IIs and mil-gauss, that's it for SS sport rolex watches in every AD I've looked at in Charlotte, Atlanta, Portland, and Boston. Some PM and TT varieties though. Never seen a new GMT of any type. I've seen all of them USED in every jewelry store that sells watches. EVERY SINGLE ONE. The watches are out there, it is just the market value over retail means that an AD can easily bundle them with traditional slow selling PM or dress watches or reserve them for high income buyers. Clearly a significant, perhaps even majority, amount get flipped very quickly (within a few months of ownership) and put into the GM. Rolex may know this and be wary of it continuing, so they don't raise pricing or production. They may not even understand how to remedy the situation. They may LIKE it, as their ADs certainly must be happy if they are selling stuff out the back door immediately upon receipt.

But for the occasional watch buyer, or the rolex enthusiast without deep pockets, this is a disaster. You can't walk into an AD and get ANY sport model for a retirement present or wedding/graduation gift. Even the OPs and DJs are hit or miss, especially for the more popular dial colors. The scarcity on the shelf is so profound I think the sport models will actually fade from public awareness because no one ever sees one.

I see very few 6 digit sport models on wrist. Plenty of 5 digit models. I know one guy with a TT sub and another with an expII. All the rest I see out in the wild are older watches. This is gonna be a problem for Rolex in the long term I think. They are either going to drastically trim down ADs to concentrate inventory (essentially abandoning small to mid sized cities) or will have to significantly alter their production ratio to boost SS sport model production and get them back on the shelf. ADs ought to get more stuff that sells and fewer mandated shelf toads that force them to bundle. They may even split their product line to make stuff that more appeals to the Asian market in order to preserve some stock for the western market.

Rolex is an everyman's aspirational watch, not a wealthy mans aspirational watch, IMHO. If this situation is a ploy to "move up" in the ranks I'm not sure how successful it will be unless they significantly reduce production, raise prices, and curtail retail outlets.

TLDR
 
Traveler
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It’s funny how these threads pop up because someone hasn’t read the (many) other ones on the EXACT SAME TOPIC that already exist, and we have to go through the same stuff over and over again. Sometimes you still feel compelled to repeat yourself in all of them... as if I didn’t spend enough time on here already .... 😒 Anyway I’m just going to say one thing :

6A77A08E-5F37-4115-B32D-A30E9025AB7F.jpeg
 
Evitzee
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Traveler Traveler
It’s funny how these threads pop up because someone hasn’t read the (many) other ones on the EXACT SAME TOPIC that already exist, and we have to go through the same stuff over and over again. Sometimes you still feel compelled to repeat yourself in all of them... as if I didn’t spend enough time on here already .... 😒 Anyway I’m just going to say one thing :

6A77A08E-5F37-4115-B32D-A30E9025AB7F.jpeg
Yes, the poor substitute for the real thing.
 
alfanator
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I was going to pick up a ceramic GMT, ready to buy, got laughed at in an AD (Ben Bridge), sales woman was literally laughing out loud when I asked. Terribly rude. So, went and got a a vintage SD and a used SD4K shortly after. They could forget about getting my money any time soon. I will go out of my way to get vintage or used.
 
asrnj77
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Evitzee Evitzee
Yes, the poor substitute for the real thing.

Not sure why people say this. Is the Rolex Sub more accurate than the Tudor Black Bay? Is it stronger? No, it’s a prestige thing that people want a Rolex crown on the their clasp that everybody can see. People like Tudor because it’s a quality watch that’s available for people to buy and enjoy.

Regarding the bubble, I don’t think the values will drop below retail but somebody that paid $10,000 over retail for a BLNR might be left without a chair when the music stops.
 
jankymutt
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Traveler Traveler
It’s funny how these threads pop up because someone hasn’t read the (many) other ones on the EXACT SAME TOPIC that already exist, and we have to go through the same stuff over and over again. Sometimes you still feel compelled to repeat yourself in all of them... as if I didn’t spend enough time on here already .... 😒 Anyway I’m just going to say one thing :

Sorry if this thread annoys you, however it's evidence that there are constantly new people getting into the same hobby you enjoy. I do look through the threads on page 1 and 2 to see if there is already a topic I can post in. Nothing seemed to fit, but maybe I didn't dig deep enough.
 
Traveler
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Evitzee Evitzee
Yes, the poor substitute for the real thing.
My point was that Tudor IS Rolex - HQ is just repositioning the brands within their family. Why? Who knows... only about 20% of what Rolex does actually seems to make sense when looked at conventionally - but it’s clearly happening. Again, other threads on this topic are available should anyone care.
 
77deluxe
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Traveler Traveler
My point was that Tudor IS Rolex - HQ is just repositioning the brands within their family. Why? Who knows... only about 20% of what Rolex does actually seems to make sense when looked at conventionally - but it’s clearly happening. Again, other threads on this topic are available should anyone care.

I agree that their strategy doesn’t really seem to make sense, but here we are in another thread discussing Rolex....hmm....
 
HiDive
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I am a regular customer with a long friendly relationship at an AD and I don't mind a wait if it is something I am really interested in. I recently picked up the ceramic Pepsi bezel GMT Master II after waiting about two months. I was in no hurry and perfectly willing to wait longer. I think the problem is impatient people. It also only took me about a month to get the Seadweller 50th Anniversary model.

fetch
 
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