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I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

  1. jhross98 Jan 23, 2020

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    i ended up trading the white dial and cash for the gray / white gold variant

    good thing i stuck to my "principles" of only owning 2 modern daytonas. ..
     
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  2. JwRosenthal Jan 23, 2020

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    My local AD (who also is the AD for Omega, IWC, JLC, Cartier, Breitling, Heuer etc) says it’s a problem for them because the last thing they want to say to a customer is no- they would love to take their money- and usually try to steer the customers towards another product- but most of the people coming in specifically for Rolex aren’t interested in a thing else. But because their business is so diversified as a high end jewler, they can operate having an empty Rolex wing of their store (I think there were 3 two-tone watches in the case and all the wall displays were empty as well).
    So how does a Rolex Boutique, who sells nothing but Rolex survive? They have to pay lease, utilities, staff, etc. Are they selling enough precious metal watches to keep the boutiques alive? Are they subsidized by Rolex to maintain a storefront despite not having inventory to sell?
     
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  3. JwRosenthal Jan 23, 2020

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    I think you made a wise choice- the grey is more attractive and sportier IMO.
     
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  4. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 24, 2020

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  5. Lenny Pepperidge Jan 24, 2020

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    Here's my hunch of how this plays out. Rolex will slowly increase prices and trickle out a bit more inventory into the market in stages over the next few years until they raise retail up to grey market prices or as high as they think they can sustain moving forward. It's a long play strategy that requires a company to be utterly ruthless, incredibly disciplined and have the marketing machine to back it all up.
     
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  6. Lurk41 Jan 24, 2020

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    Agreed, and I'll go a bit further than that
    As long as there is a shortage, any increase of the MSRP will cause an increase on the grey market. And because MSRP stays below grey market, Rolex can increase their prices without too much complain. Once the grey market price will be too high for most, it'll stop increasing and Rolex will have their target MSRP

    So when saying "they raise retail up to grey market prices", people should understand it is not current grey market prices but future ones, once the inflate stopped. Hopefully for Rolex, it will be high enough to put Tudor against Omega and them against AP
     
  7. larryganz The cable guy Jan 25, 2020

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    This is exactly what my AD in Denver has been saying for the past several years.

    In 2014 when I bought my Rolex 42mm Polar Explorer II there, they had several cases full of Rolex, including many SS Sport watches such as Submariners (SS and TT), Yachtmasters, GMT II (except for Batman), Explorer I, and Explorer II. They even had white dial Daytonas with steel bezel. In 2015 at the same AD, the Daytona, Batman and Hulk were still the only hard to find Rolex, but they got me a Hulk. Other brands of watches took a back seat to the large number of Rolex displays.

    In 2016 (I think) I got on the list for a ceramic Daytona as soon as it was announced, and later the Pepsi GMT II when it was announced, but they never got me one and only called me about a Sea Dweller and Deep Sea Deep Blue a couple of years ago. I declined those, telling the AD that my budget was earmarked for the Daytona and Pepsi GMT. By the end of 2018 their supply of SS watches was dried up, and they had to put a lot more floor space toward other brands. I eventually decided the Daytona wasn't a priority and bought the Pepsi GMT Mk2 used last spring.

    Then I got on the list for a 126660 Deep Blue in July 2019, and the assistant manager told me they had not seen one since fall 2018, so he was hoping to have another one by the end of 2019. I still talk to him 1-2x a month asking about the watch, but he has no control over what they get and asks me to be patient [edit - he says I'm the only one waiting for a Deep Blue]. It's now near the end of January 2020 and he's telling me they didn't get a single Deep Blue in 2019, but then he said Rolex opened the factory and they hope to get one in the next couple of months. I could not get more details about the factory, so I wonder if they had shut their main factory down for a while?
     
    Edited Jan 25, 2020
  8. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Jan 25, 2020

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    fashion island?
     
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  9. JwRosenthal Jan 25, 2020

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    C69C4770-7928-4DD0-AD20-B4F7B988389A.jpeg
     
  10. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Jan 25, 2020

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    Just sounds like the large jeweler by me with an empty Rolex boutique in it. Ad for Pan, Brietling, Patek, omega, long, tag, high end Seiko, JLC, Cartier and a few more. It’s crazy now that I list them lol. They literally have a 2nd door and an empty Rolex showroom that’s built into their store.
     
    Edited Jan 25, 2020
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  11. JwRosenthal Jan 25, 2020

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    I know! I thought that part of the store was under construction when I walked in as the cases and shelves throughout the store are dripping with merchandise and the Rolex wing looks like a going out of business sale- I almost expected to see caution tape draped across it.

    I think I saw a tumbleweed blow through and heard the echo of lost sales ;)
     
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  12. killer67 Jan 25, 2020

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    wonder if they will ever go to a consumer direct model like I believe AP is implementing? I’m not sure manufacturers can build customer direct relationships but it will certainly cut out the grey market dealer situation and only leave the private party reseller situation lol which is likely less pernicious
     
  13. Lenny Pepperidge Jan 25, 2020

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    Perhaps, like Willie Wonka after Slugworth stole the recipes, they're just waiting to find their Oompa Loompas before restarting the factory.
     
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  14. wjgesq Jan 25, 2020

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    It’s clear manipulation. The greys make out big time. APs are not in the same league.
     
  15. wjgesq Jan 25, 2020

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    Nice watch.
     
  16. wjgesq Jan 25, 2020

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    Vintage Coke GMT is the reaL money maker.
     
  17. Lenny Pepperidge Jan 25, 2020

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    The median annual income in China last year was USD 12,000. The Chinese middle class is not buying Rolexes. Now there has been a huge number of "affluent" Chinese minted. That, however, didn't happen in the last two years to coincide with the "shortage." It happened in the last quarter century. In fact, Chinese economic growth has been maturing and slowing (last year slowest growth in GDP of the last 30). China's not fueling this. This is a very cynical, disciplined market manipulation on Rolex's part in an effort to drive up their pricing and market (status symbol) cachet to the PP level.
     
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  18. GandOsDad Jan 25, 2020

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    no way I see that happening. They have a network of ADs who have invested time and money into supporting the mothership....I don’t see how they turn that machine off
     
  19. cvalue13 Jan 25, 2020

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    Surely agree it’s not the case that China/HK alone are fueling this, but China/HK do have something material to do with it. Namely, regardless of what’s happened in the past 25 years, in the past 2-3 the China/HK consumption of luxury Swiss watches has increased ~25% each year, year after year. And concurrently, Rolex has made a large push to displace Omega as the go-too luxury watch in that market.

    This swell in luxury product buying in the past few years (not 25) was in part the impetus for the recent bans/taxes on luxury goods purchases.

    But to restate the limits of the above: totally agree it’s not merely China fueling this, but I also don’t think it’s correct to say that China is unrelated even in part.
     
  20. JwRosenthal Jan 25, 2020

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    They also had a network of watchmakers they sent Dear John letters to despite them fully investing in Rolex approved equipment and having been an authorized service provider for years- they don’t give two shits about their network apparently.
     
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