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I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

  1. cvalue13 Jan 23, 2020

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    At this stage, I’ll add my anecdotal data point on Rolex SS:

    In December of 2017, I was in Las Vegas with my wife and we spent the weekend looking for a watch for her. This is just after the SS Sky-Dweller was released, and I was interested to fiddle with one in the metal. So, while looking all over Vegas over a 3 day period for her, I’d ask any Rolex AD/boutique if they had one on hand - received hard “nos” or polite winces. So much so, I stopped even asking after the first day.

    Until the final day. We were at the last Rolex boutique/AD in town (there are a lot in Vegas). As my wife was considering a watch, three very young, very brash, d-bags walked in and nearly elbowed my (pregnant) wife out of the way to ask our sales-woman if they had any SS Sky-Dwellers. She politely replied, “No, sir, I’m sorry,” and the three d-bags huffed out.

    At which point she turned back to my wife and I and whispered, “Actually, we have one in the back, but I’m not selling it to those as*holes.”

    But she did sell it to me.

    HOWEVER, here is how a shlub like me was able to purchase the “it” SS Rolex at that time: as it happens, that boutique had just the week before been purchased by a company in Europe, and as a result of the turnover still being incomplete the salespeople “did not yet have the ability to make sales or take payments over the phone” (her words). So, “we would have normally all gone down our telephone lists of preferred out-of-town buyers and sold it within an hour, but instead we’re kind of stuck having to instead draw names out of a hat each day for which of us gets a chance to sell it ‘in person’.” So, my wife and I both walked out with watches that day.

    But for my part, it took more than just a little luck. (1) There was probably only a single SS Sky-Dweller in all of Las Vegas that wasn’t otherwise slated for a telephone/preferred buyer; (2) only bc the salespersons at this boutique were, for that specific week, unable to sell by telephone; (3) perhaps the saleswoman only let us in on the existence of the watch because the 3 d-bags nearly shoulder-checked my pregnant wife, and she felt sentimental towards us (thanks, d-bags?); (4) further, it may have been that the saleswoman thought it could get us over the hump on purchasing a hard-to-unload lady’s precious metal unit (it did).

    It’s my only Rolex (so far), and I wear it a LOT. (My wife’s was stolen last year )
     
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  2. Alpha Kilt Owner, Beagle Parent, Omega Collector Jan 23, 2020

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    Managed to access old Photobucket images and :)

    f66673be.jpeg

    c29344bf.jpeg
     
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  3. MTROIS Jan 23, 2020

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    I understand what you are saying, but this is just one datapoint... which does not prove that other watches were no diverted to other boutiques or markets as @cvalue13 was suggesting.
    When one looks at the reports that the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) issues, it shows a clear increase of units sold from 2000 to 2019, especially in the watches above 3,000CHF, which is where Rolex is.
    See https://www.fhs.swiss/scripts/getstat.php?file=histo_gp_191111_a.pdf
     
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  4. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 23, 2020

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    ::facepalm1::
     
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  5. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 23, 2020

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    As for this "evidence", the "above 3,000 CHF" takes in so many watches, it's pretty meaningless in terms of describing what's happening with a specific model range of a specific brand. Again, this condition existing is not sound reasoning for anything specific to Rolex.
     
  6. cvalue13 Jan 23, 2020

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    Archer, not to speak for MTROIS, but I think the conversation about “proof” has shifted toward MTROIS’s statement that “the demand has increased across the board” (and he’d rattled off numerous luxury brands).

    So reading y’alls conversation as an observer, I think he’s proffering some of your requested proof regarding increased demand across the board, not suggesting that you can tease out Rolex-specific numbers (which I think he’d agree is not possible).
     
  7. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 23, 2020

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    But that's exactly what he's said has resulted in the shortage of Rolex sport models. So if he agrees that these stats don't prove the Rolex numbers (which clearly they don't) then increased demand is proof of nothing with regards to the Rolex situation.
     
  8. cvalue13 Jan 23, 2020

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    Archer, can you elaborate? You were both using anecdotal evidence regarding supply, you asked for proof of his anecdotal evidence, and so he responded in kind - honestly seems as justifiable a request for “proof” as yours?

    But, as you’ve said before, no one has the “proof” in the form of verifiable data from the Rolex company one way or the other - so we’re all left to indirect evidence and some of it anecdotal.
     
  9. cvalue13 Jan 23, 2020

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    Except that you seemed to ask for proof of his claim that there is increased demand across the board - and that specific request seems to be what he was responding to.

    I’m interested in both of your insights, and stepping out of line in trying to clear up what seems like a misunderstanding that’s really bright here nor there
     
  10. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 23, 2020

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    The assertion that increased demand "across the board" is responsible for the Rolex situation is just that - an assertion without much of anything to back it up.

    For example, during the time when this increased demand "across the board" was happening, there were brands that were buying back their own products and destroying them to keep the glut of watches from hitting the grey market and killing the value of the brand. This was partly (mainly?) due to China's clamp down on corruption, which hurt the watch brands particularly hard as watches were often gifts given as bribes - another reason why the "it's China's fault" as the reasoning for the Rolex shortage doesn't make any sense.

    So the idea that increased demand "across the board" means increased demand for any specific brand of the sort that would lead to the current Rolex situation, is not backed up by any real facts.

    In terms of my evidence, I've heard from dealers (watchmakers who work for dealers specifically) who have said they are getting a fraction of the sport models they used to get a few short years ago. It's not proof of anything specific regarding world wide production, but if watches are being "diverted" as the latest theory goes, to where, and more importantly, why?

    As always I will listen to any well reasoned argument on the subject, but what keeps being presented are vague stats that, as you say, can't be used to prove anything with regards to specifics of Rolex sport models.
     
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  11. jhross98 Jan 23, 2020

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    If it's any consolation for the rolex ss haters on this thread.. I'm seriously thinking about trading my ss white dial Daytona for the Grey dial white gold in the center below

    68258.jpeg

    But then again I also own the black dial ss so....
     
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  12. JwRosenthal Jan 23, 2020

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    You can’t trade the white one, then you won’t have the whole set.
     
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  13. jhross98 Jan 23, 2020

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    lol. i don't have the whole set. . just black and white SS

    i really can't justify having 3 modern rolexes .. .although why the line is between 2 and 3 shows my level of craziness anyway
     
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  14. JwRosenthal Jan 23, 2020

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    That’s what I mean- don’t trade the white- add the grey dialed one so you have all 3. You have brown and black shoes I assume, and weekend casual shoes....isn’t this kind of the same thing ::stirthepot::
     
  15. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 23, 2020

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    Who are you referring to?

    I don't desire anything from the current Rolex catalogue, but by no means am I a "rolex ss hater"...

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. jhross98 Jan 23, 2020

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    then. . you aren't a SS rolex hater! they are legion though
     
  17. jhross98 Jan 23, 2020

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    LOLOL

    i guess this is true

    to be honest i agree with the previous posts. . i bought the white because all the "influencers" have the white and i'm supposed to like the white. the reality is i find white watches hard to wear, the bezel doesn't look great against the pure white dial, and i LOVE the black one. then i saw the gray WG on oysterflex and fell head over heels for that one. .

    one has to go unfortunately and i think its the white
     
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  18. scapa Jan 23, 2020

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    Went into my Rolex AD yesterday, with a view to trying on an. Explorer or OP39. They had no Explorers, and haven't for over a year, and they also had no OPs except for a few oddball 34s and one purple 36 -- waiting list on the 39s can be 9-12 months on some models, the sales rep said, and they get what they get, no waiting lists are being started or even honoured anymore.

    Not a Rolex guy really, but hadn't realized that DJs, OPs and Explorers were also backordered to this extent.
     
    Edited Jan 23, 2020
  19. cvalue13 Jan 23, 2020

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    Black on black, no contest
     
  20. OmeGez Jan 23, 2020

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    Even the standard Oyster Perpetual models are on back order, it’s become a joke. I couldn’t get a 116000 Oyster in 36mm from my AD even.