I can't speak for him but to me it means he doesn't have access to easy money.

 

That was the intention- hence the no offense intended (in parenthesis) to fellow members who have worked for their money and choose to spend it on luxury items.
As has been the case historically, when we see an economic boom (like we did in the 80’s and again in the early 00’s) that is forged from bad debt and built on credit and money in the ether (bull market) - we see lots of people who have quickly suprpassed their standard income bracket and want to flash it- luxury goods is the first thing they go after. When the market levels, those who didn’t plan for the famine will find themselves quickly selling off those assets (now liabilities) and trying to get whole again....that’s when it’s prime time to buy!

 

No I am afraid I miss it as well, wonderful patina and a great history. A quick search I couldn't even find an image but now on a mission

 

Speaking of SS sports/tool models and the grey market, I found a jeweler near me with a surprising variety of them in fair to excellent condition at not unreasonable prices, for the current market anyway, (Explorer I 5-5.5K USD w/box and papers, Sub Date w/box and papers for 7-7.5k, etc), so if anyone is looking in the south GA area and wants a place they can see what they're buying in person before purchase feel free to shoot me a PM and I'll pass along their info, if this is allowed (I think it is, but mods please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). Good local reputation from what I gather, mostly deal in gems and engagement type jewelry, so pre-owned watches seem to a sideline for them, with Rolex their area of focus. Examples in the case were (just at a glance), the two mentioned above, two Yachmaster I's, a GMT, and a recent vintage Turnograph. Several varieties of the DJs as well. I may have, probably did, miss a few others, as I just stopped in for a glance not expcting much after grabbing some cigars at my favorite local spot around the corner from them. I think they offer a warranty or guarantee; not certain.

No relationship or connection with the store personally of course, actually if someone beats me to the Sub I'll be uselessly envious.

 

I don’t believe one second that Rolex has been manipulating the supply in any significant or even relevant way.

Out of the entire population, let’s take the top 0.1 percenters.... which would still be 7.8 million of potential customers for a Rolex watch.
Rolex produces say 1 million watches and may be 50% are professional models... say about 500,000 watches, tops per year. So we already have a dramatic inherent supply vs. demand imbalance... which is further compounded by the real (and perceived... similar to the Tulip story) scarcity of the product... which makes it EVEN more appealing. Remember, humans want what they can’t get! Consequence? People hoard them for their pleasure (how many around here have acquired more than 1 Rolex over the last 5 years?), or to flip them (we all know there is a big inventory out there.... but with a mark-up).

Now factor in the further compounding factors:
- influence of social media platforms where people brag about their possessions?
- top quality of the modern product itself (the highest ever with ceramic and the 32xx movements with 72 hour power reserve?) with some timeless designs (Daytona LN, BLRO, Hulk, BLNR, ...)… so MANY (I am certain) repeat customers;
- amazing track record of holding value over time (and a liquid asset too)... which also makes this a safe heaven for adding diversity to one’s financial savings/investments... which is a smart move ahead of a (potential) looming economic downturn… so many additional customers/demand;
- drumbeats from all the Hodinkees of the world in support for Rolex product, which has further reenforced the aura of the brand including in our community of WIS (which was already in the top 3 most recognized brands in the world)… again, an even wider base of customers (new and repeat);
- and on, and on.... and on.

So, YES, there is overall (much!) more demand than ever with a constant supply (although Rolex HAS increased production volumes through longer work hours, including on Saturdays... so much so that people working there are miserable!!)... so there is currently scarcity. Whether one believes it, or not.

It WILL level off at some point, and all the more rapidly of the economy tanks as flippers may possibly run into cash-flow challenges.
No matter what, in the meantime, it is fun to watch, to ponder and to discuss. This thread will make it to 30-40 pages before it gets better.

 

no offense, but I think people who say “no offense” before saying something d*ckish are still being d*ckish. (See? Still felt d*ckish.)

what you did say was that Rolex’s target audience is people who didn’t earn their money (with an added pat-on-your-own-back that you’re someone who did earn his money, so you’re not interested in Rolex).

So, it seems like, someone who proclaims they’re not interested in Rolex watches comes to the OF Rolex sub in order to get straight down to the business of judging the fundamental character of people who are interested in Rolex watches?

That sort of contribution is something I’d expect in the comment section of a GQ article, not OF.

Meanwhile, I’ve got to go research how to get money without “earning” it - because it sounds f’ing awesome to me (so long as there’s zero effort or risk involved, as you suggest)

 

yes, and I want THOSE watches and ALSO the Rolexes - MOAR OF ALL THE WATCHES

 

Given the way Omega boutiques/ADs are treating the new 321 Ed White, our principles may get an exercise!

 

Everything you listed above existed before the “shortage” began...it’s not really an explanation for what’s going on now...

 

I disagree... the demand has increased across the board.
Why are 2915 in six digit territories now? Why are the PP Nautilus, AP RO, etc in such short supply?

Hodinkee. Phillips. Instagram. Facebook. Paul Newman's Paul Newman.

The knowledge has been spreading faster than ever and the hype has had a dramatic snowball effect on this hobby... and we now see the results across the board. New and vintage.

 

Do you have proof?

 

Do you have proof that says otherwise?

 

I have proof that someone that used to sell 250+ subs a year at a Rolex boutique now only get about 20 a year to sell

 

I like getting down to data on whether watch collecting or watch flexing has increased materially with the past 10 years of global bull market.

in no way decisive but instead a proffered data point: an inflation-adjusted list of the top 68 sales prices at auction:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_watches_sold_at_auction

Of note: 56 of those are since 2010 (and 35 of those of have occurred since 2016).

Also of note: of those 68 top sales, 52 are Patek and 7 are Rolex (taking the #1 and #2 spots, respectively); in the top 10, 7 are Patek and 3 are Rolex (and 9 of the top 10 have occurred since 2014)

 

The SS sports shortage could be caused by both increase in demand and Rolex marketing strategy.

I was on the waitlist for a DJ41 black dial back in a few months ago, I received calls from my local AD every month before i changed my mind and not interested in a DJ anymore, so I put my name down on the waitlist of a batman, no update calls from AD since then.

 

Knowing what you know, if you were forced to come up with a plausible explanation of this that didn’t involve Rolex reducing supply across the board, what would you say? (For example, some have said Rolex is not lowering supply but instead re-directing supply to upcoming/hot markets such as Hong Kong/China, where in the past 3 years there’s been on the magnitude of 20% year-after-year increases in luxury watch sales.)

I’m taking your started point on its own terms as really incredible insight - just wondering what that same insight would say if forced to come up with a credible alternative to global supply reduction

 

Working frequently at a International airport over the years it’s not Rolex SS sport watches that are seen on most Chinese, it’s DJs and same for Omega it’s Constellations

Being a global forum has to seem funny that Singapore, US, UK, European, Malaysian, UAE and Australian members have all posted pictures of empty Rolex counters for nearly 2 years.
Prior to this in a boutique in Dubai in 2013 then again in 2014 I could have bought 5 Subs and it still would have left the display case nearly full.

No skin off my back what’s going on but it’s been weird to watch the last few years.

 

I have mentioned it is a ploy for two things before.

Sell the millions of DJs they got stuck with when China outlawed gifts of wealth like watches

and

Grow the Tudor brand.

 

yes, an interesting factoid I’ve picked up is that, in China, Omega has been the premier “status” brand (well over Rolex), and the Constellations are the lead. Only recently has Rolex been making gains.

also read that, to date, among the reasons for Omega’s primacy over Rolex in China has to do in part to happenstance: in Omega’s favor, some facet’s of the Omega name/symbol are associated with long-standing symbols of wealth/luck; meanwhile, the Rolex naming conventions have in China been poorly translated in unflattering ways: e.g., the “Sea Dweller” is transcribed as the “Sea Monster” (and our unofficial pet names are as a result equally problematic - e.g., our “Hulk” is known in China as “The Green Sea Monster.”

 

Chatting to a young Chinese captain on a bulk carrier a few years ago due to his nice Tag Heuer. He mentioned it is the brand of choice for young professionals for two reasons
1) The size, as most young Chinese enjoy big watches ( easier to show their wealth/status coolness )
2) Less counterfeited than Rolex as most of even his family have a Fake Rolex or two.
He was a pretty hip 28yo that was quiet good to have a chat to about all things Chinese