I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

cvalue13 · Jan 22, 2020

Archer
Chicken v egg. The market didn’t put the sort of premium on these watches that there is currently, say 4 years ago. So what changed? Supply...

Assuming it’s primarily (entirely?) supply side, and that this assumption is based on ADs asserting that they’re receiving fewer SS sports in recent years, shouldn’t it relatively easy to gather some data that verifies? (Or is the response that ADs are too terrified of Rolex?)

If by “ADs” we mean only non-boutiques, then if ADs proves out receiving fewer, it would need to be tested whether boutiques meanwhile received more?

Or if both ADs and boutiques are receiving fewer, how are the individual owners of (especially) boutiques not rioting in the streets? BC they’re making up for lost profits with grey market kick-backs?

Archer · Jan 22, 2020

cvalue13
Assuming it’s primarily (entirely?) supply side, and that this assumption is based on ADs asserting that they’re receiving fewer SS sports in recent years, shouldn’t it relatively easy to gather some data that verifies? (Or is the response that ADs are too terrified of Rolex?)

If you had spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to prepare your store to sell Rolex (which in the past has been a license to print money essentially) would you be vocal about it, knowing that your agreement with Rolex states that Rolex can cancel your dealership at any time, without giving any reason?

cvalue13
If by “ADs” we mean only non-boutiques, then if ADs proves out receiving fewer, it would need to be tested whether boutiques meanwhile received more?

Boutiques are either company owned, or dealer owned. The company certainly isn't saying anything about it, and won't.

cvalue13
Or if both ADs and boutiques are receiving fewer, how are the individual owners of (especially) boutiques not rioting in the streets? BC they’re making up for lost profits with grey market kick-backs?

Sure, riot in the streets and lose your AD status - see my first point above.

I have no doubt that some AD's are in fact getting kickbacks of some kind. They sell to well known grey market dealers at MSRP, so on the books everything looks fine. The grey dealer flips it for a profit and the AD gets a piece of that. Won't say all AD's are doing this, but odds are some are taking advantage of the situation.

janice&fred · Jan 22, 2020

Archer
I'm not being screwed in any way, because I have zero interest in anything that Rolex currently makes.

I couldn't agree more. I don't fault people that want whatever rolex is now peddling but for me the only rolex stuff I ever liked was some vintage models, and none of them were "sport models". and before anyone piles on me for this we do in fact own more than a few sport models including a red sub, sapphire seadweller and two 1655's. however I wouldn't have bought any of them if they didn't fall into my hands for next to nothing. that's just my preference. rolex wise I like vintage oysters like datejusts, dates, airkings and precisions. those are the models that were most popular back in the day as they were high quality yet not in your face style-wise. again...just my own personal preference but I would feel like a shallow and trendy Kardashian if I was to buy and wear one of those new fat-cased boat anchors that people are bending over and taking it between the cheeks for. and what's hilarious is they are willing to get on a waiting list to do so!

Evitzee · Jan 22, 2020

STANDY
Where does Brooking institution get their stats from, do they mean 50% of the USA

😕 how can 50% of the population be middle class when over 80% live on less than $10 a day

Nearly 1/2 of the world’s population — more than 3 billion people — live on less than $2.50 a day. More than 1.3 billion live in extreme poverty — less than $1.25 a day

Here's the article from Brookings. They state that 50% of WORLDWIDE people can be considered middle class. Obviously the amount of money considered middle class varies greatly, but they base it on PPP (purchasing power parity). Someone in Africa earning $15/day isn't a current customer of Rolex, but as the trend continues upward he/she may well be in the future. All this is in direct contrast to those people who preach doom and gloom for those on the lower end of the income spectrum. Things are getting better, quickly, for the masses.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/futu...f-the-world-is-now-middle-class-or-wealthier/

fryingtonite · Jan 22, 2020

Foo2rama
It’s a non profit trust. Your both right.

Er, what does that mean? Someone's making some money, right?

Tim

cvalue13 · Jan 22, 2020

fryingtonite
Er, what does that mean? Someone's making some money, right?

Tim

Rolex is a 'family owned trust,' that exists tax-free under applicable (not U.S.) law - with it's only mission to make money for the trust. So yes, they are making money. The 'non-profit' concept/nomenclature comes only from it's tax exempt status (and people in the U.S./U.K. confuse their own country's notion of 'non-profit').

But why it is relevant: Rolex is not beholden to any shareholders, or other dynamics than their own internal strategies. Brands that are publically traded have different masters to answer to; Rolex (and other wholly/privately owned brands) are in that respect free of the burdens of shareholders.

NickC · Jan 22, 2020

A couple of recent conversations with friends has led to the following. The first lives in Europe. Bought his first ever Rolex from the local AD in Summer last year - a bi metal Sub for full rrp. Over Christmas put his name down for a Pepsi and was told he would have it in the first half of this year.

Second friend lives in PA. Has bought one or two watches a year from his local AD for the past few years. Mainly Rolex but some others as well. At beginning of December, inquired about a white gold Daytona. He collected it two weeks ago. He got it for rrp and they deducted the sales tax.

Clearly the stock is out there, if you're a good customer.

Partagas · Jan 22, 2020

I'm a free market guy, but would never pay over MSRP for any watch. No thanks. I'm happy where I am with the few Rolex watches in my small collection, which is good, because I won't be paying current prices. My next brand new watch will likely be an Omega when the time comes.

Archer · Jan 22, 2020

NickC
Clearly the stock is out there, if you're a good customer.

Yes, what stock is out there is set aside for good customers certainly. It often requires buying something else that you might not want, in order to be a "good customer" though.

On another forum I'm a part of, someone had been trying to buy a watch for their son's graduation - a Rolex Sub. They were good customers at the dealer, had bought many watches there, and the father was on the "waiting list" to get this for his son for quite some time, and the dealer knew what it was for. Initially the father was told this would not be a problem since they were "good customers" but as time grew short he started to ask the dealer when the watch was coming, because the son was graduating soon. The dealer said essentially that "you aren't there yet" on the list. When he asked what was required to get him there, he was told he had to buy another watch along with the Sub.

His wife fancied a TT ladies DJ, so he said he would buy that as well, but the dealer said that "wasn't enough" to get him over the line...he had to buy something more expensive.

For anyone who remembers not that long ago, that stores used to have plenty of sport watches like subs in stock, and if you were lucky you could possibly get a discount. So no one is going to convince me that this is just demand as some want to believe. Yes there's stock, but certainly not like there used to be.

JwRosenthal · Jan 22, 2020

Archer
Yes, what stock is out there is set aside for good customers certainly. It often requires buying something else that you might not want, in order to be a "good customer" though.

On another forum I'm a part of, someone had been trying to buy a watch for their son's graduation - a Rolex Sub. They were good customers at the dealer, had bought many watches there, and the father was on the "waiting list" to get this for his son for quite some time, and the dealer knew what it was for. Initially the father was told this would not be a problem since they were "good customers" but as time grew short he started to ask the dealer when the watch was coming, because the son was graduating soon. The dealer said essentially that "you aren't there yet" on the list. When he asked what was required to get him there, he was told he had to buy another watch along with the Sub.

His wife fancied a TT ladies DJ, so he said he would buy that as well, but the dealer said that "wasn't enough" to get him over the line...he had to buy something more expensive.

For anyone who remembers not that long ago, that stores used to have plenty of sport watches like subs in stock, and if you were lucky you could possibly get a discount. So no one is going to convince me that this is just demand as some want to believe. Yes there's stock, but certainly not like there used to be.

This is a similar story to what we heard from one of our own members here who was actually shown the watch he has been waiting for was told at that moment he had to buy more in order to get it otherwise it would get sold to someone who had purchased more from them- and they recommended he buy the store branded watches to bump his customer status- totally unacceptable behavior from any retailer and clearly supported by Rolex- they will never see a dime from me....and frankly, they don’t care as I’m not in their target demographic...I actually earn my money (no offense to many members here who I respect who have purchased from Rolex recently- you have far more patience and tolerance that I do).

NickC · Jan 22, 2020

Archer
Yes, what stock is out there is set aside for good customers certainly. It often requires buying something else that you might not want, in order to be a "good customer" though.

On another forum I'm a part of, someone had been trying to buy a watch for their son's graduation - a Rolex Sub. They were good customers at the dealer, had bought many watches there, and the father was on the "waiting list" to get this for his son for quite some time, and the dealer knew what it was for. Initially the father was told this would not be a problem since they were "good customers" but as time grew short he started to ask the dealer when the watch was coming, because the son was graduating soon. The dealer said essentially that "you aren't there yet" on the list. When he asked what was required to get him there, he was told he had to buy another watch along with the Sub.

His wife fancied a TT ladies DJ, so he said he would buy that as well, but the dealer said that "wasn't enough" to get him over the line...he had to buy something more expensive.

For anyone who remembers not that long ago, that stores used to have plenty of sport watches like subs in stock, and if you were lucky you could possibly get a discount. So no one is going to convince me that this is just demand as some want to believe. Yes there's stock, but certainly not like there used to be.

It's things like this that I hate about the current situation. Clearly the stock isn't there like it used to be as my dad once bought two Daytonas in a day from the same shop - a shop he'd never set foot in before. That was in the mid 90s. However, the stock CAN be there and what certain dealers are doing is no different than shill bidding on Ebay, in my opinion. Clearly they are getting away with it as there is always someone else willing to take your place in the queue. I haven't bought a brand new watch in a couple of years now and I've no desire to at the moment based on some stories .

Partagas · Jan 22, 2020

JwRosenthal
This is a similar story to what we heard from one of our own members here who was actually shown the watch he has been waiting for was told at that moment he had to buy more in order to get it otherwise it would get sold to someone who had purchased more from them- and they recommended he buy the store branded watches to bump his customer status- totally unacceptable behavior from any retailer and clearly supported by Rolex- they will never see a dime from me....and frankly, they don’t care as I’m not in their target demographic...I actually earn my money (no offense to many members here who I respect who have purchased from Rolex recently- you have far more patience and tolerance that I do).

I would laugh, and tell them to take me off the list...permanently, and walk out the door. If that's how that (or any) AD operates, I'd take my business elsewhere. You know, there are ALOT of fantastic watches out there not branded "Rolex"!

janice&fred · Jan 22, 2020

Partagas
You know, there are ALOT of fantastic watches out there not branded "Rolex"

oh I hear ya. even if there was no contrived shortage and if I (which I don't) had big money to spend on a new watch, I would be looking at something a bit more refined like a JLC rather than some Hillbilly watch like a new Rolex. 😁

JwRosenthal · Jan 22, 2020

janice&fred
oh I hear ya. even if there was no contrived shortage and if I (which I don't) had big money to spend on a new watch, I would be looking at something a bit more refined like a JLC rather than some Hillbilly watch like a new Rolex. 😁

Hey, if you’re gonna call it a hillbilly watch, you have to at least say it right- Row-leyx.

janice&fred · Jan 22, 2020

JwRosenthal
Hey, if you’re gonna call it a hillbilly watch, you have to at least say it right- Row-leyx.

ah i'm just being my typical over-the-top self. I actually kinda like the modern and cheerful looking milgaus with the greenish crystal and the stainless 39mm oyster perp non-date with white dial. I could see myself rocking one of those but for sure it would be second hand. 😁

Alpha · Jan 22, 2020

Nowt wrong with a nice Milgauss 😀

JwRosenthal · Jan 22, 2020

I think a lot of us enjoy watching this train wreck which is the “Rolex crisis” like a perverse thrill- we are 20 pages in here. I know I have no stake or interests in the company or their products (other than the vintage pieces I own and take issue with the companies position on parts availability and who can work on my watch), but I still read and participate in these threads and even feel outrage and anger...totally irrational.

I think this hits on a lot of nerves socially and economically that run contrary to how many of us “feel” about this hobby/ industry. But as I said in another thread, we are trying to apply rational thought to an irrational market (buying a $10k+ watch is the furthest from a rational purchase as anyone can get). It’s what makes it so fascinating and so emotionally charged- it defies logic.

Ottsby · Jan 22, 2020

I don’t think Rolex is limiting production per se, but they are certainly not increasing production to meet the current demand.

In short term, it might be good financially but in the longer run I think they are turning off potential repeat customer and I’m not sure they will come back.

janice&fred · Jan 22, 2020

Alpha
Nowt wrong with a nice Milgauss 😀

nice one Stuart! hey do you still have the black dialed 6694 you got from me years ago? I miss that watch!

cvalue13 · Jan 22, 2020

JwRosenthal
.I actually earn my money

WTH is that supposed to mean (other that the obvious, I'd hope)?

I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

cvalue13

Archer

janice&fred

Evitzee

fryingtonite

cvalue13

NickC

Partagas

Archer

JwRosenthal

NickC

Partagas

janice&fred

JwRosenthal

janice&fred

Alpha

JwRosenthal

Ottsby

janice&fred

cvalue13

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