I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

JwRosenthal · Sep 1, 2019

S Shay
Hi Guys,

Not sure this is the right thread. I am looking to buy a Rolex sub or Explorer I and I visited an AD to see if I can get on the waiting list and I was told indirectly I needed to buy a Rolex first to be eligible to get on the waiting list. Do you need to buy a Rolex from the AD before being eligible to be on the waiting list for a sport model? Your feedback/experience will be appreciated. I am from the UK.

Best

I own 3 Rolex’s- all purchased used, I’m in the camp of screw Rolex and their current sales concepts- love their products- hate the company. There are literally millions of used Rolex’s in circulation and many good watchmakers that can take care of them.
Go the green route and recycle.

watch3s · Sep 1, 2019

Yup dont play their games, and soon enough the flippers will suffer. Once upon a time, batmans, subs, sat at $7,900, and $7,400 respectively, with bumps and TTT for weeks.

Lenny Pepperidge · Sep 2, 2019

Archer
Well, there's one thing I know for sure. Rolex doesn't give a rat's ass about their AD's or their employees.

They are a ruthless company when it comes to business, and if they think restricting supply will benefit them in the long run by being more exclusive, being able to raise prices, get PM watches moving as incentives, or whatever, they will do it without regard for the consequences for their AD network.

Yep. There's no way this organically just happens in the past 24 months. And you can't blame China. The rise of an affluent class in China happened over a decade ago, not two years ago. And on top of that, Xi has cracked down hard on conspicuous consumption recently. Combine that with slowing growth, and if anything, there should be less demand coming out of China than there was three or four years ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see the watches back in the dealers in the next 18 to 24 months but at a price somewhere in the middle of current msrp and the grey market prices, say 13K for a Sub and 15K for a Pepsi or Batman.

Archer · Sep 2, 2019

Lenny Pepperidge
Yep. There's no way this organically just happens in the past 24 months. And you can't blame China. The rise of an affluent class in China happened over a decade ago, not two years ago. And on top of that, Xi has cracked down hard on conspicuous consumption recently. Combine that with slowing growth, and if anything, there should be less demand coming out of China than there was three or four years ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see the watches back in the dealers in the next 18 to 24 months but at a price somewhere in the middle of current msrp and the grey market prices, say 13K for a Sub and 15K for a Pepsi or Batman.

Yes - one of the reasons brands had so much inventory is the very crackdown on corruption and giving of gifts like watches you speak of.

WatchTimes · Sep 2, 2019

Rolex is a private company and its in a Swiss trust.
No one knows who the beneficiaries are.
Being as they do not have shareholders they do not have to justify their actions
They control the supply and market.
Rolex will always have buyers unless the economy vanishes.
There are always people with money, some make more when the economy tanks and those people will always buy Rolex.

mcnuonuo · Sep 2, 2019

Foo2rama
The fact that I can walk into a 1,500+ sq foot Rolex Boutique and they only have DJ’s and Cellini’s and some random solid gold pieces. 5 years ago they had subs and other SS models always in stock.

There is no way demand is higher now then back then. They claim they get 2 subs a week and I wager that it is one of the highest volume shops in their network. I’m pretty sure they are Rolex owned. South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa CA. Next to Omega, across from Paneri, VC, JLC, and IWC. The same mall has a GO, Brietling and Patek store. Not to mention Mount Blanc, Tiffany’s, and Cartier.

Rolex ADs are also not allowed to sell new watches at a price that's not MSRP, so they can just open the box and make it pre-owned, then mark it up a few thousand bucks.

fbf · Sep 2, 2019

M mcnuonuo
Rolex ADs are also not allowed to sell new watches at a price that's not MSRP, so they can just open the box and make it pre-owned, then mark it up a few thousand bucks.

absolutely 100% true. THey will remove the AD sticker and make the watches "used".

pIoNeErOfThEnILe · Sep 2, 2019

F fbf
absolutely 100% true. THey will remove the AD sticker and make the watches "used".

and why wouldn't they do that if there's no accountability?. it's not like rolex is going to send moles to their AD's to catch them and hurt their own brand in the process.

even if AD's only do this to a portion they receive..1/4...1/3 ...1/2 whatever. if rolex doesn't give a chit about their AD's the AD's sure as hell will make up for profits lost by having to take watches that don't sell, by hook or crook. it might even be about survival for the AD to boot...just think if rolex ends this charade and makes watches available ....dominos are going to fall in many places

JwRosenthal · Sep 3, 2019

F fbf
absolutely 100% true. THey will remove the AD sticker and make the watches "used".

This is truly the most despicable of all the practices I have heard yet! I guess I shouldn’t be outraged or surprised.

Archer · Sep 3, 2019

JwRosenthal
This is truly the most despicable of all the practices I have heard yet! I guess I shouldn’t be outraged or surprised.

I can't speak for all markets, but it's not as easy as it's being made out to be. When a watch gets sold, AD's here have a special tablet with a swipe unit on it, and one of the cards that comes with the watch is swiped, then a photo is taken of the watch with the sales receipt. All of this is uploaded to a database in Switzerland.

This doesn't prevent the AD from selling a watch to someone who is in on the scheme, and who brings it back a week alter not having worn it, and then they can sell it used for a premium. If an AD was caught doing this, I'm sure they would loose their account.

Lenny Pepperidge · Sep 3, 2019

I assume that the warranty card being activated for the first time on a "used" watch might be detectable and would set off some alarm bells.

wsfarrell · Sep 3, 2019

Archer
I can't speak for all markets, but it's not as easy as it's being made out to be. When a watch gets sold, AD's here have a special tablet with a swipe unit on it, and one of the cards that comes with the watch is swiped, then a photo is taken of the watch with the sales receipt. All of this is uploaded to a database in Switzerland.

This doesn't prevent the AD from selling a watch to someone who is in on the scheme, and who brings it back a week alter not having worn it, and then they can sell it used for a premium. If an AD was caught doing this, I'm sure they would loose their account.

It's actually very easy. A gray seller (or one of his runners) goes to an AD with a lot of cash, and pays MSRP + 50% (or so) for whatever SS models are available. AD swipes the warranty card, fills out a fake sales receipt for MSRP sold to Joe Sixpack, and then Joe puts the watches up on eBay, chrono24, etc. for 2x MSRP. When customers come in and complain about the empty Rolex SS displays at the AD, the owner makes sad comments about shortages, asks the customer to buy $40,000 worth of gold watches so he can get on a 5-year wait list, and then goes in the back and counts his cash.

Since gray sellers usually obscure dealer names and watch serials in online sales, it would be extremely difficult for Rolex to trace a particular eBay watch to Authorized Dealer ABC. And even if they did, the AD sale looks legit. And (IMO) Rolex doesn't care. They stop caring when the AD pays them for that month's shipment.

Foo2rama · Sep 3, 2019

2 flaws to this theory. 1 no dealers have a large amount of used pieces or brand new “used” pieces for sale on a regular basis.

2 there is no grey market resellers with a steady supply of watches.

Archer · Sep 3, 2019

wsfarrell
It's actually very easy. A gray seller (or one of his runners) goes to an AD with a lot of cash, and pays MSRP + 50% (or so) for whatever SS models are available. AD swipes the warranty card, fills out a fake sales receipt for MSRP sold to Joe Sixpack, and then Joe puts the watches up on eBay, chrono24, etc. for 2x MSRP. When customers come in and complain about the empty Rolex SS displays at the AD, the owner makes sad comments about shortages, asks the customer to buy $40,000 worth of gold watches so he can get on a 5-year wait list, and then goes in the back and counts his cash.

Since gray sellers usually obscure dealer names and watch serials in online sales, it would be extremely difficult for Rolex to trace a particular eBay watch to Authorized Dealer ABC. And even if they did, the AD sale looks legit. And (IMO) Rolex doesn't care. They stop caring when the AD pays them for that month's shipment.

Yes, that's the scenario I outlined above. What I was referring to when I said it wasn't as easy as it's being made out to be was this:

F fbf
THey will remove the AD sticker and make the watches "used".

You can't just pull the sticker off and call it used...

JwRosenthal · Sep 3, 2019

As long as we have an economy of instant wealth, there will be those who want to flash it- this has always been Rolex’s market (I doubt the tools were their bread and butter for many years) and anyone who has never really worked for their money (aka not the easy money, fast money, new money crowd), don’t care about cost/benefit, fair trade practices or grey market- they really didn’t “earn” the money, so they don’t care what it costs- this is what has driven the market to where it is IMO, and we as collectors have been competing against these ass-clowns.
As has been said many times- just sit back, relax and don’t buy a Rolex right now-it will all level back out soon enough and there will be a flood of used Batman’s, Hulks & Jolly Green Giants to make everyone sick of them and the AD’s will have their showcases full and be back to offering hand jobs and a glass of champagne if you just please try on a new watch.

Tigeranteater · Sep 4, 2019

JwRosenthal
As long as we have an economy of instant wealth, there will be those who want to flash it- this has always been Rolex’s market (I doubt the tools were their bread and butter for many years) and anyone who has never really worked for their money (aka not the easy money, fast money, new money crowd), don’t care about cost/benefit, fair trade practices or grey market- they really didn’t “earn” the money, so they don’t care what it costs- this is what has driven the market to where it is IMO, and we as collectors have been competing against these ass-clowns.
As has been said many times- just sit back, relax and don’t buy a Rolex right now-it will all level back out soon enough and there will be a flood of used Batman’s, Hulks & Jolly Green Giants to make everyone sick of them and the AD’s will have their showcases full and be back to offering hand jobs and a glass of champagne if you just please try on a new watch.

The last sentence almost made me pass out I laughed so hard.

nzshadow · Sep 4, 2019

JwRosenthal
As long as we have an economy of instant wealth, there will be those who want to flash it- this has always been Rolex’s market (I doubt the tools were their bread and butter for many years) and anyone who has never really worked for their money (aka not the easy money, fast money, new money crowd), don’t care about cost/benefit, fair trade practices or grey market- they really didn’t “earn” the money, so they don’t care what it costs- this is what has driven the market to where it is IMO, and we as collectors have been competing against these ass-clowns.

I could not agree more. Collectors vs hypebeasts, we are coming at it from two very different angles & the brand gives no fucks whatsoever about the collectors. Your solution is exactly right- ride it out. There's a happy ending joke in there somewhere too.

JwRosenthal · Sep 4, 2019

Apparently I’m the only one who remembers the Rolex experience back in the day.😉
There was lots of flattery, a parade of dozens of watches being pulled out on the counter as I pointed into the case, suggestions that my prowess could not be matched and that I was the most interesting man alive. The happy ending was when the credit card came out.

wsfarrell · Sep 4, 2019

JwRosenthal
The happy ending was when the credit card came out.

When what came out?

Lenny Pepperidge · Sep 4, 2019

nzshadow
I could not agree more. Collectors vs hypebeasts, we are coming at it from two very different angles & the brand gives no fucks whatsoever about the collectors. Your solution is exactly right- ride it out. There's a happy ending joke in there somewhere too.

.I'd go further and say that the company values stereotypical Rolex statusdouche much more than collectors. Statusdouche will be out there every day telling everyone he knows how amazing Rolex is, that it's the only watch you should own, and that people who buy IWC or Omega or JLC do so simply because they can't afford The Precious. Conversely, the collector guy will say what a great watch it is and then also talk about what a great watch his Omega or vintage JLC is too.

I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

JwRosenthal

watch3s

Lenny Pepperidge

Archer

WatchTimes

mcnuonuo

fbf

pIoNeErOfThEnILe

JwRosenthal

Archer

Lenny Pepperidge

wsfarrell

Foo2rama

Archer

JwRosenthal

Tigeranteater

nzshadow

JwRosenthal

wsfarrell

Lenny Pepperidge

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