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I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

  1. JwRosenthal Sep 1, 2019

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    I own 3 Rolex’s- all purchased used, I’m in the camp of screw Rolex and their current sales concepts- love their products- hate the company. There are literally millions of used Rolex’s in circulation and many good watchmakers that can take care of them.
    Go the green route and recycle.
     
  2. watch3s Sep 1, 2019

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    Yup dont play their games, and soon enough the flippers will suffer. Once upon a time, batmans, subs, sat at $7,900, and $7,400 respectively, with bumps and TTT for weeks.
     
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  3. Lenny Pepperidge Sep 2, 2019

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    Yep. There's no way this organically just happens in the past 24 months. And you can't blame China. The rise of an affluent class in China happened over a decade ago, not two years ago. And on top of that, Xi has cracked down hard on conspicuous consumption recently. Combine that with slowing growth, and if anything, there should be less demand coming out of China than there was three or four years ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see the watches back in the dealers in the next 18 to 24 months but at a price somewhere in the middle of current msrp and the grey market prices, say 13K for a Sub and 15K for a Pepsi or Batman.
     
  4. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Sep 2, 2019

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    Yes - one of the reasons brands had so much inventory is the very crackdown on corruption and giving of gifts like watches you speak of.
     
  5. WatchTimes Sep 2, 2019

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    Rolex is a private company and its in a Swiss trust.
    No one knows who the beneficiaries are.
    Being as they do not have shareholders they do not have to justify their actions
    They control the supply and market.
    Rolex will always have buyers unless the economy vanishes.
    There are always people with money, some make more when the economy tanks and those people will always buy Rolex.
     
  6. mcnuonuo Sep 2, 2019

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    Rolex ADs are also not allowed to sell new watches at a price that's not MSRP, so they can just open the box and make it pre-owned, then mark it up a few thousand bucks.
     
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  7. fbf Sep 2, 2019

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    absolutely 100% true. THey will remove the AD sticker and make the watches "used".
     
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  8. pIoNeErOfThEnILe Sep 2, 2019

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    and why wouldn't they do that if there's no accountability?. it's not like rolex is going to send moles to their AD's to catch them and hurt their own brand in the process.

    even if AD's only do this to a portion they receive..1/4...1/3 ...1/2 whatever. if rolex doesn't give a chit about their AD's the AD's sure as hell will make up for profits lost by having to take watches that don't sell, by hook or crook. it might even be about survival for the AD to boot...just think if rolex ends this charade and makes watches available ....dominos are going to fall in many places
     
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  9. JwRosenthal Sep 3, 2019

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    This is truly the most despicable of all the practices I have heard yet! I guess I shouldn’t be outraged or surprised.
     
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  10. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Sep 3, 2019

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    I can't speak for all markets, but it's not as easy as it's being made out to be. When a watch gets sold, AD's here have a special tablet with a swipe unit on it, and one of the cards that comes with the watch is swiped, then a photo is taken of the watch with the sales receipt. All of this is uploaded to a database in Switzerland.

    This doesn't prevent the AD from selling a watch to someone who is in on the scheme, and who brings it back a week alter not having worn it, and then they can sell it used for a premium. If an AD was caught doing this, I'm sure they would loose their account.
     
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  11. Lenny Pepperidge Sep 3, 2019

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    I assume that the warranty card being activated for the first time on a "used" watch might be detectable and would set off some alarm bells.
     
  12. wsfarrell Sep 3, 2019

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    It's actually very easy. A gray seller (or one of his runners) goes to an AD with a lot of cash, and pays MSRP + 50% (or so) for whatever SS models are available. AD swipes the warranty card, fills out a fake sales receipt for MSRP sold to Joe Sixpack, and then Joe puts the watches up on eBay, chrono24, etc. for 2x MSRP. When customers come in and complain about the empty Rolex SS displays at the AD, the owner makes sad comments about shortages, asks the customer to buy $40,000 worth of gold watches so he can get on a 5-year wait list, and then goes in the back and counts his cash.

    Since gray sellers usually obscure dealer names and watch serials in online sales, it would be extremely difficult for Rolex to trace a particular eBay watch to Authorized Dealer ABC. And even if they did, the AD sale looks legit. And (IMO) Rolex doesn't care. They stop caring when the AD pays them for that month's shipment.
     
  13. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Sep 3, 2019

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    2 flaws to this theory. 1 no dealers have a large amount of used pieces or brand new “used” pieces for sale on a regular basis.

    2 there is no grey market resellers with a steady supply of watches.
     
  14. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Sep 3, 2019

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    Yes, that's the scenario I outlined above. What I was referring to when I said it wasn't as easy as it's being made out to be was this:

    You can't just pull the sticker off and call it used...
     
    Edited Sep 3, 2019
  15. JwRosenthal Sep 3, 2019

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    As long as we have an economy of instant wealth, there will be those who want to flash it- this has always been Rolex’s market (I doubt the tools were their bread and butter for many years) and anyone who has never really worked for their money (aka not the easy money, fast money, new money crowd), don’t care about cost/benefit, fair trade practices or grey market- they really didn’t “earn” the money, so they don’t care what it costs- this is what has driven the market to where it is IMO, and we as collectors have been competing against these ass-clowns.
    As has been said many times- just sit back, relax and don’t buy a Rolex right now-it will all level back out soon enough and there will be a flood of used Batman’s, Hulks & Jolly Green Giants to make everyone sick of them and the AD’s will have their showcases full and be back to offering hand jobs and a glass of champagne if you just please try on a new watch.
     
  16. Tigeranteater Sep 4, 2019

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    The last sentence almost made me pass out I laughed so hard.
     
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  17. nzshadow Stowaway Sep 4, 2019

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    I could not agree more. Collectors vs hypebeasts, we are coming at it from two very different angles & the brand gives no fucks whatsoever about the collectors. Your solution is exactly right- ride it out. There's a happy ending joke in there somewhere too.
     
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  18. JwRosenthal Sep 4, 2019

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    Apparently I’m the only one who remembers the Rolex experience back in the day.;)
    There was lots of flattery, a parade of dozens of watches being pulled out on the counter as I pointed into the case, suggestions that my prowess could not be matched and that I was the most interesting man alive. The happy ending was when the credit card came out.
     
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  19. wsfarrell Sep 4, 2019

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    When what came out?
     
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  20. Lenny Pepperidge Sep 4, 2019

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    .I'd go further and say that the company values stereotypical Rolex statusdouche much more than collectors. Statusdouche will be out there every day telling everyone he knows how amazing Rolex is, that it's the only watch you should own, and that people who buy IWC or Omega or JLC do so simply because they can't afford The Precious. Conversely, the collector guy will say what a great watch it is and then also talk about what a great watch his Omega or vintage JLC is too.
     
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