How to tell a service is due?

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Is the five year mark when lubrication inside the watch starts to degrade to a point where parts are no longer protected, and wear is happening or is likely to happen?
 
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This isn't very scientific, and is by no means meant to replace an inspection by a qualified watchmaker, but one thing you can do to get an indication of whether the oils in a watch are dry is to put it to your ear. If you hear a ting-a ting-a sound, rather than a flatter tick tick sound, the pallet stones are dry and slapping against the escape wheel. That's probably an indication that the rest of the oils are dried out too.
I've serviced an old Unitas 6498 pocket watch (and learnt a lot along the way) and the way it sounds compared to the other one I haven't done yet is quite noticeable.
 
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Is the five year mark when lubrication inside the watch starts to degrade to a point where parts are no longer protected, and wear is happening or is likely to happen?

Complicated question to answer, but that is generally considered as a time frame that is safe. However I've had watches in for service that were only 5 years old, and were a mess inside with wear all over the place, so it depends on the environment and use.

People do think that if they wear a watch in rotation, that the service intervals can be extended, and to a degree that's true. However that only applies if the watch is actually stopped, so if you keep the watch running and on a winder, then you can't assume any extended service interval. And the relationship is clearly not linear, so wearing it 1/2 the time will not extend the service interval by 2X, as the oils will often just dry up in that time. For me personally, 7 years would likely be the max. for a service interval.

This isn't very scientific, and is by no means meant to replace an inspection by a qualified watchmaker, but one thing you can do to get an indication of whether the oils in a watch are dry is to put it to your ear. If you hear a ting-a ting-a sound, rather than a flatter tick tick sound, the pallet stones are dry and slapping against the escape wheel. That's probably an indication that the rest of the oils are dried out too.
I've serviced an old Unitas 6498 pocket watch (and learnt a lot along the way) and the way it sounds compared to the other one I haven't done yet is quite noticeable.

Unfortunately this is not terribly reliable. Some watches produce a ringing sound in the escapement even when brand new - not sure if it still is but this used to be a Rolex thing that people would ask about. Not sure if anyone ever determined specifically what was making the sound, but on a modern Rolex (relatively modern at least) I once owned, I could hear a ringing with the ticking all the time, even right after service.

If you are looking for a diagnostic that doesn't require any equipment or looking at the movement, the run time is probably the most indicative that I can think of. If you know you watch normally runs for 48 or 50 hours from a full wind to being stopped, and after a number of years it's stopping earlier than that, you know that the loads on the movement have increased, and this likely is due to dried up oils debris, etc.

Cheers, Al
 
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Thanks Archer, for this and your other posts on servicing. They are some of the clearest information that articulate the various perspectives on deciding when to service a watch, something surprisingly lacking elsewhere considering how much is written about watches these days.