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Aludic
路路@SpeedyBirthYearI liked @ac106's suggestion enough to try it out.
Following the German Tank problem logic (details here: http://www.statisticshowto.com/german-tank-problem), we would get to an approximate total production figure well below 10k.
This would be based on:
where
N = the maximum number we are looking for (i.e. the number of FOiS produced to date)
m = highest number found so far
n = number of serials witnessed
Concerning m: the highest number I have witnessed so far was 8110, n can be estimated at about 45
(This thread alone, a quick search turned up at least: 8110, 81XX, 72XX, 6991, 67XX, 640X, 630X, 62XX, 6283, 6224, 6176, 60XX, 605X, 6052, 6047, 6004, 58XX, 56XX, 5150, 5123, 5104, 5043, 478X, 45XX, 4423, 41XX, 4118, 390X, 3865, 3732, 3480, 3226, 3193, 3090, 2527, 2067, 1586, 1440, 1242, 123X, 1101, 995, 595, 482, 16) I have been quite conservative and eliminated any potential double count due to partially disclosed numbers.
Leading to an N of 8110 + (8110 / 45) - 1 = 8289
So, based on this I would conclude that:
- The total number produced to date is likely around 8300
- The number is highly influenced by the highest number found so far (m = 8110),
- If, however, Omega still produces new FOiS (which according to Watchbase it doesn't do anymore since 2016), the number could still go up as all observations made so far are by nature skewed towards the lower end of the scale as numbers are assigned - more or less - chronologically)
Bring on those (higher) serial numbers!
Following the German Tank problem logic (details here: http://www.statisticshowto.com/german-tank-problem), we would get to an approximate total production figure well below 10k.
This would be based on:
where
N = the maximum number we are looking for (i.e. the number of FOiS produced to date)
m = highest number found so far
n = number of serials witnessed
Concerning m: the highest number I have witnessed so far was 8110, n can be estimated at about 45
(This thread alone, a quick search turned up at least: 8110, 81XX, 72XX, 6991, 67XX, 640X, 630X, 62XX, 6283, 6224, 6176, 60XX, 605X, 6052, 6047, 6004, 58XX, 56XX, 5150, 5123, 5104, 5043, 478X, 45XX, 4423, 41XX, 4118, 390X, 3865, 3732, 3480, 3226, 3193, 3090, 2527, 2067, 1586, 1440, 1242, 123X, 1101, 995, 595, 482, 16) I have been quite conservative and eliminated any potential double count due to partially disclosed numbers.
Leading to an N of 8110 + (8110 / 45) - 1 = 8289
So, based on this I would conclude that:
- The total number produced to date is likely around 8300
- The number is highly influenced by the highest number found so far (m = 8110),
- If, however, Omega still produces new FOiS (which according to Watchbase it doesn't do anymore since 2016), the number could still go up as all observations made so far are by nature skewed towards the lower end of the scale as numbers are assigned - more or less - chronologically)
Bring on those (higher) serial numbers!
