This is an interesting dynamic. There are groups of collectors who purcased watches years ago at seemingly huge discounts and groups who are starting now at much higher prices. The question of future prices is on the minds of both groups, reflected in the OPs initial question. Another question not expressly stated is the effect these new prices will have on the community.
As a member of the group who recently arrived (also an older member), it hurts when I see Ron Evans 18k gold SM sold for $11,995 in 2009. (
https://historical.ha.com/itm/explo...036.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515). That is one example of the huge price increase of which everyone is aware. There are many more examples that raise the green envy monster in me.
I think of these vintage watch prices like any other commodity. There is an inherent value combined with rarity that sparks the imagination of the public and makes them desirable to both collectors and non- collectors alike. This is true for vintage SMs.
I wish I thought to buy an Ed White watch years ago. I also wish I bought a Porsche 912 a few years ago for a quarter of what they cost now. But I didn't. What used to be the cheaper and less desirable alternative to the 911 is overtaking it's bigger brother.
What I did recently buy is a beautiful 145.012 67 with a great case, black dial and gorgeous patina lume. And I paid the full asking price without hesitation. Risky? Sure. But my risk is lowered because it is in such nice condition and I care less about the risk because of the joy I get staring at it.
"Condition, condition, condition." As been said many times before, this rule will sustain the price levels in my opinion. Are some poorer examples overpriced? Probably. But completely rusted 21 window VW Sambas are getting 60k and that is crazy too.
The sad thing is that it's going to price out most collectors. There may be more collectors with one or two special vintage SMs as opposed to the seemingly many now with dozens. (Grandpa's watch collection is going to fund a lot of future college educations and downpayments on houses.)
Final note, while I don't own an Ed White watch, I do have a nice Ed White autograph over a picture of his spacewalk. That might be as close as I get. Unless you hoarders release some.
😁
