Breaking News: The New Steel Speedmaster With Caliber 321 “Ed White”

cvalue13

I wonder if they’re making a lot fewer than originally anticipated.

rhr321

What are you smoking? You can’t buy any Patek sport model at retail. They got multi-year waiting lists for Nautilus and you need to be known customer. The situation with Patek is way way worse than Omega.

cvalue13

The reality is, mechanical watches are not needed for anything whatsoever. Their very existence - every one - is a game of desires.

that the apex of this game results in seeming distortions shouldn’t be too surprising.

And as it turns out, to survive, watch cos have figured out they need demand to outstrip supply (or else secondary market sales below MSRP tank demand, they end up with stranded product, and their image - which is their only true product - is negatively effected), which achieving demand outstripping supply (seemingly paradoxically) further increases demand.

Not to suggest I have it all figured out, but instead only that I see the most successful brands all doing it or TRYING to do it and assume THEY have something figured out.

cvalue13

The reality is, mechanical watches are not needed for anything whatsoever. Their very existence - every one - is a game of desires.

that the apex of this game results in seeming distortions shouldn’t be too surprising.

And as it turns out, to survive, watch cos have figured out they need demand to outstrip supply (or else secondary market sales below MSRP tank demand, they end up with stranded product, and their image - which is their only true product - is negatively effected), which achieving demand outstripping supply (seemingly paradoxically) further increases demand.

Not to suggest I have it all figured out, but instead only that I see the most successful brands all doing it or TRYING to do it and assume THEY have something figured out.

Archer

The vast majority of watch companies are not doing this, and are still surviving (and more) just fine. In fact, Omega is one of them, so although there are some models that are harder to get due to lower production volumes, most Omegas can simply be bought whenever you want to buy them.

cvalue13

I was suggesting Omega might be viewed as being in the above-mentioned *trying* do it bucket. That increasingly seems plausible. Whether the current trajectory sticks or goes as far as Rolex remains to be seen, of course.

But if you were being generous (rather than contrarian) to my point I think you’d have to agree that it’s past due to still in 2021 feel like like “I don't understand why Omega (or any manufacturer) would advertise a product for sale but not have anything available” - the point to which I was responding

cvalue13

That’s a fine view, and may prove to be right.

But I don’t share the view, neither do professional analysts of the sector, and neither does it square with the observed manufactures’ moves in this direction or those losing their asses (which suggest it’s not merely a whim or mistake but instead intentional and responsive to a business need).

cvalue13

I suppose you could dig up some one-off post of haste that suggests otherwise, but no, in the main my thoughts in this subject have been consistently: throttling production is different from matching production to a desired demand ratio, doing so is not “evil” (least of all if it makes business sense), and disagreeing with the various versions of “if you make more watches you’ll make more money” claptrap

cvalue13

Funny you call it a strawman, as it’s a strawman you’re here creating. I did nowhere suggest that you think a glut is a good idea

instead, I was supporting my assertion that the Swiss watch industry is uniquely negatively affected by any oversupply or stale inventory (see bullwhip analysis), and simultaneously uniquely positively affected by demand outstripping supply (see analysis variously above on this both curing the overstock problems, but also adding benefits to both obtaining and incrementally raising MSRP)

cvalue13

First, exceptions don’t make rules

Second, Swatch group doesn’t even need to be an exception: over the past few years analysista have noted the company (1) narrowing its portfolio of offerings, (2) focusing on “heritage” piece marketing, (3) moving the company to DTC platform (in partial effort to address supply chain/inventory ails), and (4) having some successes at introducing high-demand/low availability marketing-leading pieces, in an apparent shift toward incorporating this brand strategy (as a compliment to DTC)

… which was basically my original point RE we shouldn’t be surprised to see Swiss watch manufactures having pieces that are very hard to get

M'Bob

Great discussion.

One topic that often gets overlooked is what happens when demand exceeds supply, and then the consumer fatigues from the wait, and looks elsewhere?

I had a new cal 321 Speedy on order, but after a year of waiting, despite the fact that I still like it, I decided to get something else. Am I the exception? Will most wait? Perhaps. I guess the above suggests that to be the case.