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But the mugger who wants your wallet at 3am is likely going to take any watch you have and figure it out later.
Nothing good happens after midnight.
An acquaintance had his 1966/67 Rolex GMT (ref 1675) stolen while on vacation in Buenos Aires. Heartbreaking for him, since he had worn that watch since he purchased while on active duty in Viet Nam. Interesting story actually, he originally had it on a ref 7206 rivet bracelet, but he says that the clasp popped open during a firefight and damaged the bracelet, and he almost lost the watch. Afterwards, he put it on a ref 9315 diving bracelet with a flip lock clasp. He still has the damaged 7206, but he won't sell it to me.
Some times no matter how hard you avoid it. Trouble still finds you.
In all seriousness ... I have a second Baltic on order, a Victirinox Diver and two Timex for those times when an irreplaceable watch is not appropriate. In the final analysis, insure your collection, keep them safely locked away when not in use. They are things and not worth your life so don’t wear em in sketchy places.
Most thieves are first attracted to your appearance: if you look well-heeled, their eyes will take note, and deduce that you may have a decent timepiece. There is nothing more fun than going out of the house looking like a total slob, even in a questionable part of town, with a $20,000 watch on your wrist, and have the sketchy dudes look at you with disgust and pity.
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I recently spent a week in a pretty nasty city, a business trip to an industrial area I'd normally avoid like an Invicta factory outlet store. When I asked about the area we'd be staying in I was immediately told "don't wear a watch, they'll cut your hand off to get it", when I suggested they might be exaggerating a tiny bit I was told "no, that's what happens, it's faster than asking you to give it up" .