In reality they're not making any more of these so as more people come to be able to afford to buy them the prices will continue to rise. It's seasonal, every season they go up in price.
I have to wonder how much the prices are related to the stock market. People obviously have more money now, so they are ok spending it in other areas (watches)? When the market goes down, will prices go down as well?
Looking back only 12 months, what people are asking for even non super collectible models ST145.0022 etc... has risen dramatically. I look back at forum posts from 12-18 months ago, and there are many watches I'd buy in a second.
What do you think the 50th anniversary of the moon landing next year will do to speedy prices ☕
I think that more than the stock maket, the prices might be related to the overall low-risk rates granted by Government bonds etc.
Some people must have "diversified" their worth in other asset classes, and it turns out that watches is just another one of those...
You mean if interest rates rise people might have more of an interest in bonds vs. right now with cash bringing essentially zero return people prefer to use some of their cash in stuff like watches which may appreciate?
I assume you wanted to quote my "bonds" post ? If so, I risky assets' returns are less impacted than "risk-free" assets by today's ECB/FED policies. Thus, I'd say that most of the people that have held a part of their wealth in government or corporate bonds have had no choice but to invest in other areas. It's a simplified take obviously but there has to be a link with the fat increase of the vintage watch market's value / so I believe that if cash returns increase again, some "investors" might loose interest in other asset classes such as watches
I've only been into watches about 1 year and a half and don't own any vintage watches but, as I liked vintage connies and Speedmasters I've kept an eye on them price wise. All I can say is prices have went up...a lot. To be honest I'm not sure how much longer this can continue and frankly it has me hesitating to buy anything at the moment...new or used.
New watches are one thing
New watches are one thing, but I think if you're at all interested in vintage Speedmasters, the right time to buy was yesterday. Look at how far Heuer has come in just a couple years. Look at the ridiculous prices being asked for run of the mill Rolex Daytonas (think high 5 figures). Hell look at any vintage tool watch at all! Even "poor mans Heuers" and beat up tool watches from no name brands are commanding stupid values now compared to a couple years ago.
I think we're still at the bottom of the market when it comes to Speedies, as crazy as that sounds. As @STANDY says, "The only way is up"...
I agree that in a low yield environment that investors will go towards riskier assets. However, it's kind of a large jump to go from gov/AAA bonds to watchs as an investment. Instead I think you just have people chasing yield through riskier BBB bonds as well as a greater confidence in the equity markets. Interestingly, I actually feel that watches as a whole are quite correlated with the stock market so if you're looking for diversification then I guess you're doing it wrong.
Instead, I think the run up in prices has been increased demand. Just more and more people going after fewer and fewer goods. I attribute a couple of factors to this:
1. Better journalism through blogs, forums, and especially Hodinkee. I know the Dink gets a bad rap sometimes here, but it was personally my gateway to realizing there was high quality content out there in an easy to read manner.
2. Better online resources/data to derisk buying a vintage speedy. Not only the good work that spacefruit has done with speedmaster101, but also the wide variety of resources this forum provides. Add to that the ability to quickly find various price points (watchrecon, ebay, chrono24) you have a larger audience who will feel more comfortable spending $7-8k for a used/vintage speedmaster than before when all you had was a blurry picture via email/craigslist and no data points to compare.
3. Social media. How I loathe and love it at the same time. Yes, Instagram (IG) has played a large part in showcasing the aesthetics of these watches and it has, in turn, developed a greater following which tends to continue to feed unto itself.
In short, I actually expect speedmaster prices to continue to appreciate, although not with as much velocity. As many have mentioned, condition will create a larger deviation in prices with better condition commanding a substantially larger premium. However, I do think we are getting close to the cap for non-straight lugged speedmasters.
