Anyone for Tennis - Djokovic situation discussion time ?

Omegafanman · Jan 9, 2022

Davidt
Come on. You’re clearly cherry picking questions so the answers back up your position.

Which vaccines give immunity? None (as far as I’m aware). Fine.

Which vaccines lead to a significant reduction in severity of symptoms, hospitalisations and deaths at a population level? All of the approved ones, which is the important aspect here.

It’s not the number of infections causing the problem, just like we don’t need huge reactive measures when half the population of a given country gets the common cold. it’s the severity and impact of infection which before the vaccines was causing excess deaths and overwhelming healthcare services. Lockdown/restrictions etc are buying us time while we’re able to reduce the severity of the illness to a level we can live with, largely using vaccines. No ones saying vaccines stop infection. But they do reduce hospitalisations and deaths. Clearly it can’t go on for ever and an equilibrium between impact on the economy & peoples lives needs to be balanced in the near future. For now countries have a responsibility to keep their people safe and for islands boarder control plays a huge part. It’s not for foreign individuals to decide whether boarder controls are right/wrong, just accept it whether you’re an international sports star or a cleaner. People within the country can decide whether it’s right/wrong at election time.

I agree with a lot of what you say - But I do think a lot of people were under the impression that the vaccines would give greater immunity from infection and transmission - a message re-enforced by politicians (one assumes to drive uptake and keep a simple narrative early in the crisis) I can give stong evidence to support this. The statistics never matched that message and that has been damaging for those of us who are data/fact driven. It may also have driven higher infection rates due to changes in behaviour. In terms of elections in the UK all the main parties are in lock-step so it is hard to see a change in policy via the normal political route. Based on the comments by Trudeau and Macron maybe some Governments will push to exclude wrong thinkers from voting anyway as they clearly think they have the majority now to push 20% of the population away (which looks to be correct and is a bit ironic given Trudeau only got 33% of the vote). Hopefully we can all still have the occasional open and fact driven discusion on OF. This Covid is a big elephant in the room which has impacted us all so much. My view on Djokovic from this thread is that he needs to follow the rules, but the science shows the rules in his case give no strong benefit to protect the public - other than showing compliance and encouraging vaccine uptake. Based on his age, health, wealth and prior infection I suspect he is not at strong risk from Covid.

JimInOz · Jan 9, 2022

Observer
That was the point. You had trouble following the conversation. lol

I thought you were out?

JimInOz · Jan 9, 2022

Observer
I already wish I hadn't taken part in this conversation. It never works because when you stick with the facts, you run afoul of someone's beliefs and they accuse you of being on facebook or listening to Joe Rogan because it's easier to talk about that than explain themselves. Best of luck to everyone. I'm out.

Omegafanman · Jan 9, 2022

JimInOz
I thought you were out?

Until Musk gets us to Mars we are all in ;0)

JimInOz · Jan 9, 2022

Thanks to @STANDY who posted this in the joke thread, but it really belongs here.

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MtV · Jan 9, 2022

Boojumhunter
So unless you can trump my credentials (and those of most doctors and scientists):
Vaccines work.
Vaccines are safe.

While I’m completely with you regarding the conclusion you draw from your education and experience, may I mention that playing TOP Trumps „Personal Degree Edition“ is generally not the preferable approach to an argument, I’d say? 😁

Absolutely no disrespect to you sir, but there are more than enough confused people out there with a medical degree and job experience that outranks yours, who would still recommend against vaccinations, who think cancer can be healed with homoeopathy or homosexuality is a treatable disease.

You have the knowledge to present a perfectly valuable argument based on facts in this case. No need to rule out lesser educated people in this specific field per se, just like you wouldn’t want to be excluded by someone who has your medical credentials beaten. 😀

JimInOz · Jan 9, 2022

Attrinuted to Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić.

"The Serbian leader offered his unconditional support for Djokovic, saying his government will take 'all measures to stop the harassment' of the tennis superstar."

Shit, I hope Serbia doesn't declare war on Australia!
How will their Navy get here if they don't have a seaport?
And how will their Air Force threaten us if they can't go further than Dushanbe?

S.H. · Jan 9, 2022

Omegafanman
Based on the comments by Trudeau and Macron maybe some Governments will push to exclude wrong thinkers from voting anyway as they clearly think they have the majority now to push 20% of the population away

Huh?

Omegafanman
My view on Djokovic from this thread is that he needs to follow the rules, but the science shows the rules in his case give no strong benefit to protect the public - other than showing compliance and encouraging vaccine uptake. Based on his age, health, wealth and prior infection I suspect he is not at strong risk from Covid.

Yeah, well... making sure he does not fall ill from covid, and does not add any burden on the already overstretched hospital system is not important?

The problem with covid is in its numbers, it is a statistical problem, concerning all of us. Not very deadly, maybe but when a large part of the population is at risk of being infected, you can't deal with small adjustments at the personal level. You let everyone taking too many risks at the same time, you bomb the system. It goes against the grain of the Western individualistic mindset indeed, maybe in Asia they have less compliance problems. So, you are right, he needs to follow some rules, and I'm not even sure science says he is not at risk.

Also, having worked with simulation and statistics coupled with engineering at some point in my life, I remarked that statistics seem very simple to grasp at first sight, but are actually hard to fully comprehend, even by scientifically educated people (and I mean in my case, aerospace engineers! I saw horrible things written on paper concerning maths and statistics that took a while to correct).

Omegafanman · Jan 9, 2022

S.H.
Huh?

Yeah, well... making sure he does not fall ill from covid, and does not add any burden on the already overstretched hospital system is not important?

The problem with covid is in its numbers, it is a statistical problem, concerning all of us. Not very deadly, maybe but when a large part of the population is at risk of being infected, you can't deal with small adjustments at the personal level. You let everyone taking too many risks at the same time, you bomb the system. It goes against the grain of the Western individualistic mindset indeed, maybe in Asia they have less compliance problems. So, you are right, he needs to follow some rules, and I'm not even sure science says he is not at risk.

Also, having worked with simulation and statistics coupled with engineering at some point in my life, I remarked that statistics seem very simple to grasp at first sight, but are actually hard to fully comprehend, even by scientifically educated people (and I mean in my case, aerospace engineers! I saw horrible things written on paper concerning maths and statistics that took a while to correct).

At this stage (and taking Djokovic as the example) I am interested what his absolute risk of hospitalisation is from any of the current varients. I suspect it is very very low from the current statistics. Given the economic pressures I think the broad brush approach will need to be modifed at some point.

In terms of the politics - on one extreme you have a Chinese style digital social credit system and on the other a capitalist rights based free for all. Hopefully there is some middle ground but from the recent photo below a percentage of the population is becoming uneasy in the West. I guess that is good in a democracy to decide where the lines get drawn. Open and honest discussion is key for that so I appreciate your post and the sharing of thoughts on these matters.
.

S.H. · Jan 9, 2022

Omegafanman
Hopefully there is some middle ground but from the recent photo below a percentage of the population is becoming uneasy in the West.

I'm French and I can tell you that we are a little fed up with covid - as everyone on the planet is. But we are also a little fed up with the vocal minority of anti vax/anti system Saturday manifestants too. For years now we have people on Saturday protesting about a bit of everything (gas prices, Covid contraints, Retirement laws, etc). It is a very mixed bag, some legitimate protesters (at first), a lot of lunatics, Covid problems are just a pretext to protest, we have these since 2019.
Don't forget that here, health is mostly free, including vaccines... (mandatory health insurance is costly but it is another debate).

"I guess that is good in a democracy to decide where the lines get drawn."

Come on. Here we have people regularly organizing protests in neighborhoods where it not allowed, disorganizing public transports and other commercial / public spaces, not wearing masks in tight groups when it is mandatory, talking nonsense about vaccines. Police stays put but not many arrests, it is quite light handed, and we as a majority just wait for them to kindly stop being a nuisance.

Davidt · Jan 9, 2022

S.H.
For years now we have people on Saturday protesting about a bit of everything (gas prices, Covid contraints, Retirement laws, etc). It is a very mixed bag, some legitimate protesters (at first), a lot of lunatics, Covid problems are just a pretext to protest, we have these since 2019.
.

Completely agree. I have a relative (by marriage) who is anti everything. Before Covid they were regularly in London and wherever else protesting about immigration or Brexit. As soon as Covid, lockdowns and vaccines kicked off she’s all over this.

It’s like she/they need some big conspiracy to rally against to explain why her/their life hasn’t panned out as they wanted, rather than looking to her/themselves.

ChrisN · Jan 9, 2022

From the outside, I think that Australia has done very well in terms of deaths from this virus so it makes sense to keep going the same way, probably, and be rigid with the requirements.

Obviously, there are geographical influences, population density, life expectancy, general health of the nation, numbers vaccinated, the way deaths are recorded etc. that come into play but here are the latest figures I see per million of the population for Europe, just the worst 16 countries and it's clear that no government has covered themselves in glory.

Serbia would be similar to Portugal, it appears.

Australia numbers would be an order smaller than anything in Europe... Perhaps 100? In the end, when it's pretty much over later in 2022 (fingers crossed) it seems unlikely that Australia will be anywhere near the figures shown above.

I can fully understand the border control and government stance based on this. Forgetting whether the vaccine prevents spread and so on, what the Australian government have done appears to be working - at least from the outside.

Cheers, Chris

Archer · Jan 9, 2022

Omegafanman
I agree with a lot of what you say - But I do think a lot of people were under the impression that the vaccines would give greater immunity from infection and transmission - a message re-enforced by politicians (one assumes to drive uptake and keep a simple narrative early in the crisis) I can give stong evidence to support this.

The problem is variants. Initially the vaccines did confer a good level of immunity from infection, but the mutations have developed to evade that.

Omegafanman
Based on the comments by Trudeau and Macron maybe some Governments will push to exclude wrong thinkers from voting anyway as they clearly think they have the majority now to push 20% of the population away (which looks to be correct and is a bit ironic given Trudeau only got 33% of the vote).

Like many places here in Canada we have a small and vocal group of “anti” who will latch onto anything to rail against governments at all levels, and there are of course political and religious opportunists who will take full advantage of these people for their own agenda.

Last year we had a military member crash through the gates where the PM here lives currently with a load of guns in his truck to “arrest” Trudeau. In last fall’s election several of his campaign stops him had to be canceled because it wasn’t safe. At one he had rocks thrown at him. Whatever your politics may be, these are not acceptable things in society. Much like the protests, intimidation, and death threats many of our scientists and healthcare workers have experienced here.

These people are not fact and data driven, and quite frankly the vast majority here have been more upset at the lack of action than what has been done. We are all tired of this pandemic, and even more tired of the lack of shared responsibility seen in these people, and the hyperbole that they tend to resort to. I don’t know what you are referring to specifically, but suggesting that people who don’t agree will not be allowed to vote here tells me you have no clue about what is actually going on here...

Foo2rama · Jan 9, 2022

Observer
That was the point. You had trouble following the conversation. lol

Clearly you missed the point where I clearly explained why that doesn’t matter. I’m sorry your unable to follow high school level sentence structure.

small pox vaccine didn’t have smallpox virus in it either. So how did that magically disappear after thousands of years of killing people in the 1970’s.

M'Bob · Jan 9, 2022

Candace Owens, pundit from the Daily Wire here in the US:

“I am not getting this vaccine. Ever! Never going to get it. I don’t care if I’m on my deathbed and they say it can save you, I’m not going to get it. I’m principally now opposed to it, and I do not understand why anyone who is healthy, able-bodied and young would ever get this vaccine if you’re not at risk of Covid.”

I mean, c’mon. You have to respect someone who is taking a stand, and willing to die for their beliefs when a perfectly safe, efficacious solution is available to prevent it…

Omegafanman · Jan 9, 2022

ChrisN
From the outside, I think that Australia has done very well in terms of deaths from this virus so it makes sense to keep going the same way, probably, and be rigid with the requirements.

Obviously, there are geographical influences, population density, life expectancy, general health of the nation, numbers vaccinated, the way deaths are recorded etc. that come into play but here are the latest figures I see per million of the population for Europe, just the worst 16 countries and it's clear that no government has covered themselves in glory.

Serbia would be similar to Portugal, it appears.

Australia numbers would be an order smaller than anything in Europe... Perhaps 100? In the end, when it's pretty much over later in 2022 (fingers crossed) it seems unlikely that Australia will be anywhere near the figures shown above.

I can fully understand the border control and government stance based on this. Forgetting whether the vaccine prevents spread and so on, what the Australian government have done appears to be working - at least from the outside.

Cheers, Chris

That helps me work out the absolute risk for Djokovic a bit more.I wish the UK press presented the data in this format rather than just listing 150,057 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid since records began. Looking at the average for all countries from the table it is 990 deaths per million (keeping in mind that covers all ages and health conditions). That should give us all some hope. I think the work by profesor Norman Fenton and his push for all cause age adjusted mortality figures to be used would be very helpful. I also need to get updated on the stats for heart disease, cancer, suicide etc - I do also realise it is hard to balance the total needs of a population with a finite budget.

M'Bob · Jan 9, 2022

Davidt
It’s like she/they need some big conspiracy to rally against to explain why her/their life hasn’t panned out as they wanted, rather than looking to her/themselves.

I think this is right on the money. It’s sad, really, that some people feel so disenfranchised in life that being a member of a cohesive group, any group, is so important that the mantra validity is irrelevant.

Omegafanman · Jan 9, 2022

M'Bob
I think this is right on the money. It’s sad, really, that some people feel so disenfranchised in life that being a member of a cohesive group, any group, is so important that the mantra validity is irrelevant.

The turn outs for general elections in the UK have been rather patchy. I imagine it is the same in other countries. If there is a silver lining to this very dark cloud maybe more enagement with official politics might not be a bad thing - voting is important.
1992 was the last high point - The Sun's analysis of the election results was headlined "It's The Sun Wot Won It",
Shows why social media is so critical.

M'Bob · Jan 9, 2022

M'Bob
Candace Owens, pundit from the Daily Wire here in the US:

“I am not getting this vaccine. Ever! Never going to get it. I don’t care if I’m on my deathbed and they say it can save you, I’m not going to get it. I’m principally now opposed to it, and I do not understand why anyone who is healthy, able-bodied and young would ever get this vaccine if you’re not at risk of Covid.”

I mean, c’mon. You have to respect someone who is taking a stand, and willing to die for their beliefs when a perfectly safe, efficacious solution is available to prevent it…

And while I’m railing, let’s talk for a moment about the repugnant behavior of some in the news media, like her, above:

People that have good jobs and incomes, who spread dangerously false and tainted information to a vulnerable viewership, for nothing more than the attempted gratification of an insatiable, narcissistic, black-hole of an ego.

padders · Jan 9, 2022

I am lead to believe there is a large population of Croatian descent in Australia. Maybe this has something to do with this blatant Anti Serbian persecution.

::stirthepot::

😉