This isn’t a watch guy clearly, and that kind of “honesty” can be hurtful to someone who thinks he has a prize and now he looks foolish. If this were a close friend, then sure- you can tactfully say “hey bud, I think you got a fugazi”. But the OP doesn’t know the fellow well and if he wants to continue having a pleasant social relationship with him, the erring on the side of tact and just opting out of the entire transaction would be the best way to go.
If this fellow asks what he “thinks” of the watch, then that would invite an honest response of “I have some concerns about it’s validity” or something like that.
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