Weather in OZ in January

I am heading to Tasmania in two weeks for 5 days and then off to Melbourne for 5 days for a wedding. I need to decide whether to bring a watch on a bracelet or one on a strap, based on how hot it is likely to be. A google search suggests not too hot (average 26c in Melbourne and lower in Tas), but I read every year about blazing temperatures in relation to the tennis tournament, so I am a bit unclear, and I don't have a good recollection from the last time I was in Melbourne many years ago. Not a life changing issue either way, but just hoping for some guidance. And no, I am not going to bring both!

Also, any risk these days walking around Melbourne wearing a nice watch? There seem to have been a lot of watch muggings here in Los Angeles lately.

Thanks in advance.

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The weather in Melbourne can vary quite a bit today it's going to be @ 35C (@ 95F) it was 41C (@ 106F) a few days ago, and was @ 23C (@ 73F ) on the days in between.
Realistically the likely upper temps for January in Melbourne will range from 20C the the mid 40's with the odd high 40's temp quite possible.
Having said that, it's a common joke that we get 4 seasons in one day, this is wrong, it should be 6 seasons in one day as the local indigenous people have 6 seasons! 🤣

Melbourne is a physically a very spread out large city, and it can depend on where you are if your near the bay you are likely to be a bit cooler as you catch the sea breeze in the afternoons and early evenings, but this doesn't reach all that far in. the northern and western suburbs have a lot less greenery and due to their more industrial nature have a lot more paved surfaces so they can retain and radiate more heat than the leafy South Eastern suburbs.
Humidity can be quite a variable too!
Here is a link for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the BOM)) They also have a useful app that you can download to your phone for the duration of your visit.

You shouldn't worry about getting mugged in Melbourne, I never do, but as anywhere keep your wits about you.

A can't really speak for Tassie as I've not been there for many years, but the weather is likely to be a little cooler and I doubt you will have the slightest security worry there.