Watch Investment Funds…ugh…

Archer

There are very dedicated watch "hypers" out there who will do whatever they can to counter that trend, because they know they would lose their shirts if that happens. In some circles you are only a true enthusiast if you pay inflated grey prices, and you are a low level chump if you wait for a watch from the AD to get it at list. The level of insanity out there is massive, and those people will do anything to keep it going.

I actually think some of the pricing is pretty artificial anyway, with watches moving back and forth between dealers, with widely publicized increases each time before they actually sell them to collectors.

S.H.

The recirculation between vendors is a well known trick among low grade antique dealers, I would not be surprised if it applies here too indeed.

I agree about the level of insanity, for me it is mind boggling. Like meme stocks, disconnected from value and return; pure greed running wild.

I personally apply a criterion to see if a watch is overvalued (to me) : what is the multiple between routine service cost and market value. A sub costing around 500 to service valued 10k? A multiple of 20 is a sign of trouble to me, there is some kind of disconnect.

Larry S

What I resent, particularly with Rolex, is I WEAR mine. Now I’m far more careful of where and when because though insured, I will struggle to replace them.

sgrossma

With the amount of players, I think the market will remain stable with only short term ups and downs. Even though sales and prices were down during the early days of the pandemic, dealers held together and did not lower prices... at all.

Larry S

What I resent, particularly with Rolex, is I WEAR mine. Now I’m far more careful of where and when because though insured, I will struggle to replace them.

pdxleaf

This thread seems to have a theme realated to an internal gut check about the direction of watch collecting.

On a positive note, I am encouraged by the many young people who have blogs and podcasts about watches. Some other collectibles seem to be dominated by old men. This suggests that an interest in watches will survive, although it doesn't say much about what brands and models will be of interest in the future.

The few young people I know seem more interested in brighter colors, cotton candy dials and that sort of thing. 70's watches may have a revival much like bell bottoms. Steel chronographs may always have respect, much like renaissance paintings by the masters. It invokes a high period for art. But in everyday life, people admire the masters but prefer abstract and impressionism in their daily lives. Interest in steel chronographs may fade. Not a prediction, just another frame of reference. The only sure thing is that human culture is not stagnant and loves change. Even Rolex and Omega can't resist it.

Foo2rama

This is not new and and least one of them was directly implicated in market manipulation about 7-10 years ago.

Dan S

But I quickly realized that high-end dealers, auction houses, social media influencers, watch industry "media" sites, and the brands themselves (e.g. bidding on their own watches) are already so far down this road, that I'm not sure it can get much worse.

eugeneandresson

I wear the crap out of my ‘investment’ piece. And I scratch it with glee. Because it’s a tool watch and the purpose of its creation. And the ‘returns on the investment’ are the pleasure it gives not having to give a shit about it whilst potentially scratching and dinging it whilst wearing it.

‘Watch investment funds’ sound very much like ‘chocolate flavored shit’ to me : does not compute. I baby my 60s MkII racing-project/franken more even though it’s worth less…because it is beautiful, rare in its condition (especially for a parts watch) and gives a totally different kind of pleasure and, being a collection of 60s parts (except the movement holder and dust cap) will be quite difficult to replicate in the way that it came together. Different strokes for different folks I guess…

eugeneandresson

‘Watch investment funds’ sound very much like ‘chocolate flavored shit’

DoctorEvil

I get ya. I was hoping one day to get a GMT2 as a travel watch for when I finally retire. But it kinda defeats the whole purpose if I'm scared to wear it out because in some places it could get me mugged or even killed.

sgrossma

I don't think meme stocks and the watch market are really comparable. You might have a few dealers that over leverage and have to dump inventory at any given time, but as a whole, there is too much money behind all of this. Most dealers and collectors would rather just hold a few years longer than take a loss. You can also enjoy watches, but you can't physically enjoy meme stocks!