Trilogy watches or vintage, what's a better investment?

If you ever work that out, please share with the rest of us. 😉

In all seriousness... certain vintage pieces have displayed ongoing, upward trends in price... there's no guarantee that will continue, but there is data that shows growth over time.

The modern pieces... there is not enough data to predict what will happen.

The silver snoopy did well immediately.

The Apollo 11 45th kept value pretty much.

50th Anniversary sets dipped, and have just about recovered, from what appears to come to market... but again, too small a data set to really know.

Other LEs have been available for less than retail, then recovered and crept upwards with time.

TL : DR the future is uncertain.

I think the Trilogy Set (557 sets) is the future direction of watch collecting.because they are faithful examples of the original watches. If you bought the originals in this NOS condition, what would they cost, let alone ever finding them. If you follow eBay, more and more vintage pieces are combinations of old and new. I really liked the Lewis Speedmaster in the Forum Sales section, NOS everything with a 321 like new movement and raised logo dial.

That is what i said when it was BERK was half that price. Or when 2915s were $10k. But Tencent, they are going to own the internet one day.

The answer is that neither are good investments.

They're toys, buy the one you want to play with most.

Vintage has the least possibility of dropping badly and staying down. However, you do have to do a lot of homework before each purchase to be sure of what you're getting.

Neither one should really be looked at as an investment, unless you want to become a dealer.

Strawberry blonde or dirty blonde? which one is more fun?

If your buying any watch, new, LE, vintage it doesn't matter with the hopes of breaking even or profiting long term you are making a big mistake. Buy a watch because you can afford to enjoy it, and for this reason alone.

The question is simple...which would you enjoy wearing the most?

The only hope for the Trilogy to gain value is to leave them untouched in the box...this is just crazy. Buy a watch to enjoy it, not with the false hope it may appreciate.

I totally agree with CajunTiger. There are potentially better investments out there, but they don't convey the same pride as wearing a beautiful watch. And, please remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Vintage probably is better investment, as I have not lost any money on my preowned Speedmaster purchases. That being said, I am located in South Korea, and it seems that the 4 pieces of the 2017 Speedmaster reissue have all been spoken for. I put my name down at the OB, but no callback.

I agree that the only hope of the Trllogy increasing in value is to leave it untouched. That said... if you decide to go that route you won't be the only person doing it. I'd guess 10-20% of the sets won't be worn.

And personally I couldn't do it. I just couldn't look at those watches and not wear them. I'd have to buy 2 sets. So then one set goes up in value (eventually) while one set goes down. No point for me from an investment perspective.

The price on the Trrilogy is pretty steep. To me, a vintage reference in top condition will outperform reissue in long run.

I don't know much about investing in watches but I know a little about investing in vintage cars. When one buys vintage art, jewelry, comic books, cars, etc. often times I hear "buy it because you like it not for investment". In my opinion one purchases without regard to its potential investment. And if the value goes down there is no loss because one didn't buy if for speculation in the first place. Nothing written wrong with that.
I started out at 14 loving sport cars. At 16 I bought an Austin Healey for 1k. I bought it for fun. I liked it. I bought a second Healey restored it and doubled my money 2 years later discounting my sweat equity. From then on I bought cars to speculate. Typically over the years I made a profit. Over 50 years my 12k on my second Healey went to 2.5 million. Sure I'm no investment guru and I do this for a hobby and there certainly was luck along the way. I loved driving these cars after restoring them. People have told me how can you drive these perfect cars. For me watches are meant to be worn as cars are meant to be driven. I hate garage and trailer queens. Sorry for digressing. My point is why can't you wear a watch for purposes of enjoyment and also for investment. Why not enjoy both worlds? At a vintage Ferrari show I was asked why I was selling my Lusso? When I told him the market was right to let it go he said he would never sell his special Ferrari regardless of profit. I have no issue with that. We all have our own motivation. However I told him that if I did not speculate on cars I would never have owned the car of my dream and I would not be side by side speaking and befriended this Ferrari owner. I think it is Ok to wear a vintage watch , watch the market, and sell the time piece for a more valuable watch if the market goes up. If you take this tact understand like the stock market you can loose your shirt. But collecting this way is for me a lot of fun.

I think the general consensus is buy what speaks to you... investment value generally is secondary 😉

Depends on what vintage 😉

the trick : knowing when modern becomes vintage, and the price trend gradient flips from negative to positive.

which is mostly speculation at the end of the day as most of us can't see the tree for the leaves, let alone the forest for the trees with respect watches in the world...unless we know facts that most don't, like production volume, price trends over time etc etc etc.

so, unless one is super diligent and spends most of their free time trying to piece all this info together, just buy what you like, and stop creating threads like this.

please.

The time an individual spends loving a watch is what I call INVESTMENT. Many prefer buying a watch thinking that some people have INVESTED time with that watch wearing it through thick and thin. That’s their choice and they would gladly pay a premium for the “patina.”

I prefer buying a virgin piece and INVESTING my very own love and affection with it as I go through life. In twenty years, I would have INVESTED so much love with my watch that I wouldn’t sell it for 17 million dollars (although I bet my children who will inherit my watch will give in). 😀

Probably in my experience closer to 8-10% but I've never worked on the super big yavhts.
44m/145ft 5 year old sailing yacht our budget was 1.2m usd/year on crew, maintenance, fuel, berthing etc and the owner rarely used the boat at the time.

I buy watches to put on my wrist and stocks to appreciate, it is tempting when you see how crazy some of the prices for Daytona's, speedys and UG Nina's etc have gone up but I'd bet a lot of them were purchased initially as wearer's or just as part of a collection and suddenly, conveniently the prices have exploded.

Will the Swiss vintage Chrono bubble burst? Yes. When? I don't know.
Will we have another stock market correction? Yes, many. When? I for one don't know.