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UG Clapton 881101/01 market trends

  1. subregister Jul 17, 2020

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    Hello everyone -
    Price trends update on the Universal Geneve 881101 "Eric Clapton", below.
    Please note that the below is just an image, and it includes both asking prices from dealers/forums, as well as final sale prices from auction. On the source page you can filter by one or the other.
    It's quite a scatter without more context as to the quality of each, but at least provides some direction...

    Screen Shot 2020-07-17 at 9.46.03 AM.png

    Source: Alpha Hands

    Screen Shot 2020-07-17 at 9.46.16 AM.png
     
  2. BlackTalon This Space for Rent Jul 17, 2020

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    There is hope! Thank you for the info.
     
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  3. subregister Jul 17, 2020

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    I should probably have noted that lower prices indicate not the best examples ;)
    The very best pieces that are exceptionally rare trade still trade above $30k USD.
     
  4. BlackTalon This Space for Rent Jul 17, 2020

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    No no no. Please revise what you wrote and say prices are plummeting, ESPECIALLY for great examples.

    Pretty please?

    It doesn't need to be true, just need future sellers to think it's true. :whistling:
     
  5. jhross98 Jul 17, 2020

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    I am not an expert on every ug model but my sense is A examples of the 60s chronos are very stable last few years
     
  6. subregister Jul 17, 2020

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    *BREAKING NEWS*
    UG CLAPTON PRICES PLUMMET
     
    watch3s, Foo2rama and BlackTalon like this.
  7. Walrus Jul 17, 2020

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    Looks like a bitcoin chart
     
  8. rolokr Jul 18, 2020

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    Good Luck finding one ! Nina too !
     
  9. CafeRacer Jul 21, 2020

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    Are these actual sale prices, or just advertised prices?
    There seems to be a huge difference between what they're advertised for and what the actually change hands for.
    That might help to explain the huge range...(?)

    E.g. this one has been sitting for just under US$12k for months now with no takers:

    claptonFS.jpg
     
    GuiltyBoomerang likes this.
  10. subregister Jul 21, 2020

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    Hello @CafeRacer
    Correct. I did mention in my post that the chart "includes both asking prices from dealers/forums, as well as final sale prices from auction. On the source page you can filter by one or the other." in an effort to help differentiate the two, which as you note, are quite different.

    For those that are interested in more detail, if you head to the Alpha Hands page, you can filter by Dealer v Auction (and other items as well), which will in turn update the chart. In this way you can look at auction results (the best information as they provide actual sale prices) v dealer prices (which are most often advertised prices, though they can be sold at the advertised level on occasion).
    Looking just at dealer prices tells us where people want the market to be (in my head I always give a nice haircut to the asking price). The only way to have a bit better information (since dealers don't provide selling prices, of course), is for the buyer to share the price at which they purchased the watch (and I would update the chart), or to drill into the 'Source' button on the table, go to the location of the post, and if on a forum you can see how quickly the watch sold - say if it was the same day or within a couple days, you can surmise that it was sold at the asking price or very close to it, most likely. Hope that helps, everyone!
     
    Edited Jul 21, 2020
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  11. CajunTiger Cajuns and Gators can't read newspapers! Jul 21, 2020

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    the chart is nice, but doesn't offer much help as the market for exceptional examples has not changed direction.
    condition is always key and as with any reference values are all over the place depending on originality and condition
     
  12. subregister Jul 21, 2020

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    @CajunTiger yes, correct - I have not created a grading system where I assign a score to every watch, and thus create the ability to filter and crate charts dependent on level of quality. I've thought about it, but it makes my head spin. The closest I get is that visitors can filter out incorrect hands, bezels, etc. from the chart to enable something slightly more representative.

    And of course, when looking at any data point, visitors can always click on "source" to be taken directly to the watch so they can see the example and level of quality. Not ideal, but the best I have come up with to date.
    If anyone has a suggestion to @CajunTiger 's point, please do chime in, I'm all ears :thumbsup:
     
  13. dsacks30 Jul 24, 2020

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  14. rolokr Jul 24, 2020

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    Missing hands, replacement crown, and no reference number ?
    10k ?
     
    Edited Jul 24, 2020
  15. kanye_mouse Jul 24, 2020

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    If you go to the source link (thanks for the great site, Alpha Hands!), you can play around with the data points and filter. For example, here it is filtered by auction results only. I'm no expert, but I think the two lower-priced examples from last winter were sub-par examples for Heritage? Others with more knowledge can head to the link and look at the original lots and provide better takes.
     
    Screen Shot 2020-07-24 at 9.53.21 AM.png
  16. subregister Jul 24, 2020

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    thanks @kanye_mouse for the kind words!
    Indeed @dsacks30, that Clapton has started off far for quickly than I would have expected for a piece that needs crown, hands and relume main hands. We would expect this bidding to flatted out in the remaining days. Will be interesting to see.
    I do think from images I have seen that it may be quite possible to read the full serial and reference (don't quote me on that...)
     
  17. rolokr Jul 24, 2020

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    Case back looks odd to me a bit. Looks like letters on the back and should be 881101/01 ?
     
  18. subregister Jul 24, 2020

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    The letters (hard to read) I am thinking are the "STAINLESS STEEL SWISS" that we see
    But the reference and case are a real challenge too. I would personally want to be pretty confident about numbers, otherwise adjust a bid accordingly.
     
  19. dsacks30 Jul 26, 2020

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    You were right, the bidding did flatten out. It ended at $11,201.
     
  20. bgrisso Jul 26, 2020

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    The serial and case ref were at least partially, if not fully, visible. Still I'm a bit surprised at the total, with sales tax added, a full service, plus the parts needed, probably close to $14K, assuming you can even get the correct parts. I don't really see the appeal compared to the one that @CafeRacer posted.

    Still, it's Ebay. Who knows if the bids are even genuine, if the buyer will pay, and if a return will happen..........Always a lot of ifs
     
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