Archer
·Polls regularly put support for separation there in the 20% or less range. Last poll I see is from May-Jume and support for leaving was at 18% Support for staying in Canada is much greater.
There is a referendum coming up, but it's a referendum to have a referendum. This referendum is about if the province should have a second referendum to enter into binding separation talks. So the first vote is to have the separation vote, and the second one would be the one that starts it in motion.
Despite the desire for a minority to leave Canada, that would be a messy and difficult process. No one can ever answer the tough questions about how exactly that would go, from compensation for federal lands, share of national debt, use of currencies and passports, diplomatic supports abroad, and of course the very sticky issue of treaty rights that Alberta cannot just wipe away.
I don't think anyone here is completely discounting it, because we have had 2 such referenda in Quebec and the last one was a close call. Also Brexit, which I think is a better illustration of my concern than the Quebec scenarios. People there thought it would never pass, but thought a strong vote yes would give them more bargaining power when the vote was no - in one poll about a week ago 50% of the people wanting to vote to have the binding referendum, said they didn't want to separate, but wanted to "send a message" to the federal government. That sort of thinking leads to unexpected/unwanted outcomes...



