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Speedy Tintin information gathering
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Mtnmansa
·Where did you source the black/red racing strap?
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ReturnOfUltraman
·
Should’ve made it red and black! 😎
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WurstEver
·It's Monday night here now, but I had some time on Sunday afternoon and I was wondering about whether the rate at which serial numbers were coming into this thread had changed over time - specifically, whether it had decreased - so I went back through the thread, made some notes, and started playing around with the numbers. I replaced missing digits in serial numbers with zeros. I only counted each serial when it was first reported (i.e., they weren't counted again if they were mentioned in a reply). But I didn't make any attempt to identify or remove duplicates other than that. For each serial, I made a note of the thread page they were reported on and the month and year of the post. I transformed the month and year to a month number starting with December, 2015, which is when @blubarb kicked off the thread and hypothesised that production had ceased. I ended up with 172 serial numbers, distributed among the months since the thread started as below ...
After a spike at the start of the thread, despite some month-to-month variability, it seems like serials have continued to come in at a reasonable rate. The average rate may even have slightly increased over recent months. There's certainly no strong evidence of it tapering off. What does this mean? Well, it's hard to say, because this is a function not only of the availability of Tintins, but also of the popularity of the thread. What's maybe more interesting is what I found when I looked at the dates that different serial numbers were first reported, as shown below...
Serial numbers starting with 777 show up throughout the whole life of the thread, from the early months (at the bottom) to the late months (at the top). However, the action here is on the right-hand side. With the exception of just one example, serials starting with 778 and above cluster in the top right-hand corner. The bottom right-hand corner is virtually empty. Specifically, with just that one exception, Tintins with a serial number of 778 and higher only begin to show up (in this thread) in Month 14; which is January 2017. Is this possibly evidence of the release of a big batch of new Tintins around that time? I acknowledge that this might not be news to @blubarb who has been diligently tracking the serial numbers, or to those who've been following the thread more closely than I. But I thought it was interesting to see the sudden appearance of lots of watches with those high serial numbers at a time that coincides with the beginning of a new calendar year, contrasted with their near-complete absence beforehand. Food for thought 😀
After a spike at the start of the thread, despite some month-to-month variability, it seems like serials have continued to come in at a reasonable rate. The average rate may even have slightly increased over recent months. There's certainly no strong evidence of it tapering off. What does this mean? Well, it's hard to say, because this is a function not only of the availability of Tintins, but also of the popularity of the thread. What's maybe more interesting is what I found when I looked at the dates that different serial numbers were first reported, as shown below...
Serial numbers starting with 777 show up throughout the whole life of the thread, from the early months (at the bottom) to the late months (at the top). However, the action here is on the right-hand side. With the exception of just one example, serials starting with 778 and above cluster in the top right-hand corner. The bottom right-hand corner is virtually empty. Specifically, with just that one exception, Tintins with a serial number of 778 and higher only begin to show up (in this thread) in Month 14; which is January 2017. Is this possibly evidence of the release of a big batch of new Tintins around that time? I acknowledge that this might not be news to @blubarb who has been diligently tracking the serial numbers, or to those who've been following the thread more closely than I. But I thought it was interesting to see the sudden appearance of lots of watches with those high serial numbers at a time that coincides with the beginning of a new calendar year, contrasted with their near-complete absence beforehand. Food for thought 😀
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sevenhelmet
·Has anyone had their TinTin serviced yet? I'm curious how long most will wait. I assume mine is still less than 5 years old due to being a later serial number (77810303, if the complete serial isn't already in your trackers @WurstEver and @blubarb ). Running a steady +6s/day, so I think it should be fine for now.
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Redbirdsfan70
·@WurstEver Thanks for sharing that detailed breakdown. I still think we need to trust what we have heard from Robert-Jan Broer and another poster that spoke with Omega VP of Product Development on production numbers. They are the most informed sources we have. Anything else is just speculation on our part. It may have been that those 778 serial numbers were not distributed until early 2017 or perhaps they were in ADs in parts of the world where the interest was low and then managed to be redistributed in the supply chain to markets where there is an interest.
The watch is still gaining interest and popularity. In FB groups I almost never saw a Tintin 6-8 months ago but now it is a common occurrence. It just stands to reason that the more people learn about it and get exposure to it the more it will be collected. Eventually, all the new inventory will dry up and what we will see is straight up pre-owned sales. Sure, some collectors will never wear the watch and leave it in the wrapping but that will slowly dry up too.
I'm curious if your data can tell us how many of the 172 watches you've tracked were purchased new, NOS, or unworn and if there is any pattern in that data.
The watch is still gaining interest and popularity. In FB groups I almost never saw a Tintin 6-8 months ago but now it is a common occurrence. It just stands to reason that the more people learn about it and get exposure to it the more it will be collected. Eventually, all the new inventory will dry up and what we will see is straight up pre-owned sales. Sure, some collectors will never wear the watch and leave it in the wrapping but that will slowly dry up too.
I'm curious if your data can tell us how many of the 172 watches you've tracked were purchased new, NOS, or unworn and if there is any pattern in that data.
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Neek
·
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WurstEver
·I still think we need to trust what we have heard from Robert-Jan Broer and another poster that spoke with Omega VP of Product Development on production numbers. They are the most informed sources we have. Anything else is just speculation on our part. It may have been that those 778 serial numbers were not distributed until early 2017 or perhaps they were in ADs in parts of the world where the interest was low and then managed to be redistributed in the supply chain to markets where there is an interest.
Yep, I agree. I don't think there's anything in the data that contradicts what's been said by those reputable folks about overall production volume. It maybe just adds a little detail to the story.
I'm curious if your data can tell us how many of the 172 watches you've tracked were purchased new, NOS, or unworn and if there is any pattern in that data.
Great idea, but sadly I didn't keep track of that. I suspect the data would be patchy because while some people have been explicit about reporting, for example that their Tintin was brand new, NOS, etc and even sometimes which box it came with, much of the time there's no mention of those details. At some point it will be interesting to see if new serials start to taper off. @blubarb will be in a better position to differentiate between new serials and repeats because he has full serial numbers. Will be interesting to see how it develops over time!
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Redbirdsfan70
·Yep, I agree. I don't think there's anything in the data that contradicts what's been said by those reputable folks about overall production volume. It maybe just adds a little detail to the story.
Great idea, but sadly I didn't keep track of that. I suspect the data would be patchy because while some people have been explicit about reporting, for example that their Tintin was brand new, NOS, etc and even sometimes which box it came with, much of the time there's no mention of those details. At some point it will be interesting to see if new serials start to taper off. @blubarb will be in a better position to differentiate between new serials and repeats because he has full serial numbers. Will be interesting to see how it develops over time!
Great point. I'm curious to see the next update from @blubarb and what his GTM count tells us.
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WatchWalker
·The prototype TinTin seemed to have a rocket pictured on the dial at 11h. Did anyone here ever see one of those versions and was able to take a picture, and since I am pushing my luck, post it here? 🤪
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The Father
·Out for its maiden voyage. Bracelet tucked away and on this from watchgecko
the WATCHGECKO site has some good stuff
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Redbirdsfan70
·The prototype TinTin seemed to have a rocket pictured on the dial at 11h. Did anyone here ever see one of those versions and was able to take a picture, and since I am pushing my luck, post it here? 🤪
No one would be able to post it here but supposedly there are some with pics. If you read through the posts one member did a mock-up which is supposedly spot on and there is another poster that said he will provide pics if you PM him. I haven't heard back from him yet. I'm waiting patiently. 😀
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BlackTalon
··This Space for RentI will admit if the watch had the rocket on the dial it would have been a lot less attractive to me. it would have probably cut down a bit on the interested audience.
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The Father
·The prototype TinTin seemed to have a rocket pictured on the dial at 11h. Did anyone here ever see one of those versions and was able to take a picture, and since I am pushing my luck, post it here? 🤪
urban legend
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Redbirdsfan70
·I will admit if the watch had the rocket on the dial it would have been a lot less attractive to me. it would have probably cut down a bit on the interested audience.
It wouldn't have been as interesting to me either. I love the story exactly as it is now.
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Redbirdsfan70
·urban legend
Not according to RJB. He's seen it.
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Sunsetamps
·Not according to RJB. He's seen it.
It’s real. And there were hundreds made with a rocket and destroyed. It’s a factual part of the watch and was not a prototype but one was saved for the museum. Just agreeing with Redbirds.
Edited:
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The Father
·Not according to RJB. He's seen it.
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blubarb
··I might rise, but I refuse to shine.Yep, I agree. I don't think there's anything in the data that contradicts what's been said by those reputable folks about overall production volume. It maybe just adds a little detail to the story.
Great idea, but sadly I didn't keep track of that. I suspect the data would be patchy because while some people have been explicit about reporting, for example that their Tintin was brand new, NOS, etc and even sometimes which box it came with, much of the time there's no mention of those details. At some point it will be interesting to see if new serials start to taper off. @blubarb will be in a better position to differentiate between new serials and repeats because he has full serial numbers. Will be interesting to see how it develops over time!
It's Monday night here now, but I had some time on Sunday afternoon and I was wondering about whether the rate at which serial numbers were coming into this thread had changed over time - specifically, whether it had decreased - so I went back through the thread, made some notes, and started playing around with the numbers. I replaced missing digits in serial numbers with zeros. I only counted each serial when it was first reported (i.e., they weren't counted again if they were mentioned in a reply). But I didn't make any attempt to identify or remove duplicates other than that. For each serial, I made a note of the thread page they were reported on and the month and year of the post. I transformed the month and year to a month number starting with December, 2015, which is when @blubarb kicked off the thread and hypothesised that production had ceased. I ended up with 172 serial numbers, distributed among the months since the thread started as below ...
After a spike at the start of the thread, despite some month-to-month variability, it seems like serials have continued to come in at a reasonable rate. The average rate may even have slightly increased over recent months. There's certainly no strong evidence of it tapering off. What does this mean? Well, it's hard to say, because this is a function not only of the availability of Tintins, but also of the popularity of the thread. What's maybe more interesting is what I found when I looked at the dates that different serial numbers were first reported, as shown below...
Serial numbers starting with 777 show up throughout the whole life of the thread, from the early months (at the bottom) to the late months (at the top). However, the action here is on the right-hand side. With the exception of just one example, serials starting with 778 and above cluster in the top right-hand corner. The bottom right-hand corner is virtually empty. Specifically, with just that one exception, Tintins with a serial number of 778 and higher only begin to show up (in this thread) in Month 14; which is January 2017. Is this possibly evidence of the release of a big batch of new Tintins around that time? I acknowledge that this might not be news to @blubarb who has been diligently tracking the serial numbers, or to those who've been following the thread more closely than I. But I thought it was interesting to see the sudden appearance of lots of watches with those high serial numbers at a time that coincides with the beginning of a new calendar year, contrasted with their near-complete absence beforehand. Food for thought 😀
I cannot say my data differs from yours - that was a great analysis and graphing it was an exceptional idea - something I will do with the numbers as well and as soon as I have a sound data sample that will be somewhat significant. Unfortunately I wasn't thinking far enough ahead to discriminate between new and re-sold so that is now pretty much unobtainable. Great work, @WurstEver