Yet that’s only one third of the prevailing price!

 

Finding one new at MSRP is a bargain at this point. With warranty is even better. Pretty foolish of the AD to sell it that cheap.

 

@magic12345magic let's see some pics!

 

Really? I see lots of hype on these being posted, presumably by owners but I note that in the past month 2 for sale on forums* have failed to sell at £4700/$6000, both admittedly without boxes/papers. Perhaps there is a big premium for a clean full set, there often is for LE editions, but while they have clearly risen greatly in value, I am not sure it is as far as some would have you believe.

*Here and TZ-UK where there is an active sale for one at present if anyone is interested.

 

Couple of thoughts on this (as someone who recently bought a full set used TinTin, though not on the forum). I think there is a premium on NOS watches as there is a growing perception that these are an increasingly rare find. For one, most everyone who initially bought these watches did so because they really liked them and wanted to wear them and not for speculative purposes. Second, once the value of these watches began to rise, there was a run on those NOS or floor models that could be obtained. NOS models went from $3500 to $5000-ish to "I can probably find one for you for $7000" to now closer to $9000 for NOS models. I know because I've been tracking it and asking retailers and resellers.

For this reason, I think there's been a series of "pops" in the market as folks realize that this is probably it for NOS in this range. Compare and contrast with Ultramans, which I suspect a lot of people bought solely to flip them. You've seen these come out in dribs and drabs, but the market is certainly softening. I suspect there are a lot more new, in box w/ stickers and never worn versions that will be sold off through the years, but nobody is clamoring to pick them up because supply is steady and strong because so many bought them with no intention of wearing them and solely to flip them and the market seems to be pricing that in.

I draw this distinction because there's also been a subsequent rash of folks who own and have worn the watches who are now looking to realize some gains from selling them. Certainly nothing wrong with that, but the supply for these gently used and otherwise TinTins isn't as scarce - there are plenty of people who own them and will probably part with them for the right price - maybe it's $6k, maybe it's $8K (and so we're not there yet) and maybe it's more - but theres plenty of them and every NOS watch today may become one in the future. In sum, you need to distinguish between NOS TinTins and worn sales because one is rare and getting rarer and the other will presumably stay static unless and until prices rise enough to change that.

 

I got mine in HK in october. Curious which shop. PM me if you could.

 

Found this on an eBay sales group. I don't think it was ever an "ugly duckling" do you?

 

For full sets with box and papers the price is more than realistic, because a normal Speedmaster costs now 4.600 Euro (after price adjustment) and the Tin Tin is rare and discontinued so that the price should be significant higher and I see them in the realistic range from 6.000 Euro to 7.000 Euro (Full Set, NOS). Without box and papers it would never be my interest because the watch is too new to be without papers. And maybe that is the difficulty in selling these watches.

 

The watch only example at TZ-Uk is now down to £4,500/~$5,750/~€5,000 if anyone is interested. Like I say, there is a fair bit of hype about but if you buy into it then go get it...

 

Just my 2 cents here, but I think £4500 is still high for a watch only example. I personally wouldn't go higher than £3500 for a watch only piece. I've been hunting tintins for a while now, and I've found it harder to find one that's a watch only, compared to finding full sets.

 

Great! Why you huntin'?

 

I had the last authorised dealer Tintin in the UK reserved for me at the OB Regent street at UK RRP towards the back end of 2017 and.........

I skipped as I didn't see myself bonding with it and went for the CK2998

I didn't bond with the CK2998 either

 

Today's Chrono24 price estimate:
7361€ for a used TinTin
Range (6752€ minimum - 7970€ max) which gives a median of 7361€

 

Slightly off topic but please be informed today is the 90th anniversary of Tintin. 250.000.000 albums sold since 1929...

I'll drink to that, cheers!

 

cause i've been through the desert on a horse with no name

 

I see now why you would need a wristwatch..

 

G'day everyone, happy new year!

I thought I'd write today to provide a bit of an update and to put forward an idea that @blubarb and I have talked about. According to my notes, we've now seen 198 unique Tintins in this thread. The distribution of new watches over time is shown below in the same ways as I posted a few months ago (on p.79 of the thread).




If we assume that the rumors are roughly accurate and there are between 1500 and 2000 Tintins in existence, the number that we've seen in this thread actually represents a decent proportion of the overall population; specifically, between about 10-13%.

This seems like a lot and it leads to an interesting question: Is it typical to see so many unique watches (or any kind of product) reported in online threads of this general kind?

If we dig a bit deeper into this question, an interesting opportunity arises. Consider that there are some limited edition models where we know the total number of watches in existence. Working backwards, if we were to figure out whether this proportion is roughly the same for those other watches (and adjust for thread length), this could actually be an interesting way to increase our confidence in the Tintin production number estimates getting around. We could even frame this as a kind of hypothesis to be tested. If the number of unique watches appearing in discussion threads related to each specific model is roughly proportional to (1) the length of the thread, and (2) the number of watches that exist, if we calculate the proportion of unique watches appearing in threads dedicated to different numbered editions and adjust for thread length, then those proportions should be fairly stable across models and they should be roughly the same as the estimates for the Tintin.

This could be tested in maybe five main steps:
1. Identify candidate numbered LEs. A few that come to mind are the CK2998, Speedy Tuesday 1 & 2, Apollo XI 45th, Snoopy 1 & 2.
2. Identify threads associated with each numbered LE. At this step, I think we'd be looking for threads that are similar to the Tintin thread, in that (i) they are focused on a specific LE and (ii) folks have been reporting arrivals or new acquisitions for a reasonable period of time. Kind of like this example for the ST1: https://omegaforums.net/threads/omega-speedmaster-speedy-tuesday-limited-edition-arrivals.51317/
3. For each such thread, collect data on (i) the number of unique watches observed in the thread and (ii) the length of the thread in terms of time and pages. The outcome measure would be unique watches reported, per unit of LE volume (which we know for numbered editions), per unit of thread length (say, months, for argument's sake).
4. Aggregate scores for as many numbered LEs as possible
5. Use the obtained range of scores to provide a comparison for the Tintin numbers.

Incidentally, according to this method, the thread-length adjusted values for the Tintin, using month as our length measure would currently be between:

unique observations/total population/thread length in months
198/1500/38 = 0.00261
198/2000/38 = 0.00347

Meaning that around three-tenths of a percent of the total population of watches have been reported in the thread per month, on average.

While this is not a way to prove any particular estimate correct with 100% certainty, it could at least suggest that the popular production numbers that people have talked about are in the right ballpark. On the other hand, if the results from the other LEs come back fairly consistent and then the Tintin numbers are wildly different, that's possibly even more interesting.

A little bit of geeky food for thought. Cheers!

 

It may not be too surprising that we managed to get 10-13% of the serials # of the Tintin speedy in here as this watch was / is more likely to appeal to collectors... who in turn are more likely to be on this forum. Even more so for the ST1 (and perhaps 2), as these were specifically developed for #SpeedyTuesday e-followers... which would naturally lead to skewed numbers/stats vs. regular production references.

Other than that, thank you for compiling these numbers and for providing your analysis. Great job!!!

On a related note: Joyeux Anniversaire Tintin!!! You sure look youthful for a 90 year old chap....

 

None of the allure of a Tintin back story/mythology . . .

. . . but just wondering if some design cues have strayed north east from Bienne across to Grenchen:





'Very happy to announce the first “Capsule” collection at Breitling around the golden years of civil aviation between the 50ies and 70ies. Our “Capsule” collections will be limited in time and/or in production and/or in networks. These pieces are not numbered which is the difference towards our limited editions more targeting collectors. The first product of our “golden age civil airline squad” is the SWISSAIR. SWISSAIR was one of the most emblametic airlines of this time.'

 

Amazing!!! Check this:

https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https://www.ebay.com/ulk/itm/362527076174