I always loved nice watches and Speedies in particular. Only now I can finally afford to start a small collection on the cheaper side. The other day I was looking for a Cal. 321 Ref. 105.012 classic Moon watch and to my surprise the price of these skyrocketed over the last couple years. Other sought-after references are also much pricier now.

Why the surge in price now? Would this have anything to do about the emergence of smartwatches and how more people are turning to classic mechanical watches that pack a lot of history?

 

Nothing more than 2.5 PSI or you risk the seals.

 

Proliferation of "keeping up with the Jones" due to the expanse of social media (i.e. Instagram) backed by the ever growing consumer credit bubble maybe?

Coupled with the recent 50th anniversary of the moon landing.

 

that’s a great chart. I second cheap money, people with cash chasing potential “investments”, as well as a return to something more tangible. Personally I switched over to mechanical watches about 9 years ago because I got tired of having so many things to charge and have always been fascinated by mechanical watches. I started with a Tudor Pelagos, but eventually caught the vintage bug (seikos and omegas) thanks to a good friend.

 

It’s all Fratello,s fault #speedytuesday

 

Makes sense, but cheap money has been around since the early 2010's. I don't intend to resell my watches unless I'm in a dire financial pickle so the way I see it it's definitely not an investment for me. I can relate to your experience, I recently ditched my Apple Watch for a Zenith El Primero. Wearing a mechanical watch gives me so much greater satisfaction than strapping a tiny computer to my wrist.

 

A few factors fueled the rise in prices: appetite for real assets as a hedge to zero rate policy, more buyers coming from Asia, new media (Instagram / FB), merchants' / auction houses' / brands' de-facto collusion to entertain the rise (front-running is tolerated in the real asset world). Watch collecting today has little to do with what it was 10 years ago. It's different and it has little to do with connected watches or whatever inventions.

 

Pretty much the same for me as it was 10 years ago.
I look for them, I buy them. ( not as many due to the prices )

There has been changes
A lot more pseudo dealers
A lot more buy to flip to fund their hobby
A lot more people that think watches are a investment
But there has always been the above three around even 10 years ago

Instagram, media and social media has Increased popularity and it’s the increased popularity which has meant more competition and this has lead to higher prices

 

It'd be interesting to see this graph overlayed against other watches. I suspect it's not just the Speedmaster that is spiking in value.

 

I dont know how long this platform exists, but i find it interseting that up to the end of 2015 there is hardly any deviation from the mean/median value. So probably there were only few pieces listed for sell in the first place. And now the quality might play a big role, therefore the huge price variations.

 

This trend is mostly noticeable for famous references like Nautilus 5711, or Royal Oak 14790ST. Less famous models are still hit by the inflation but not as much.

 

Dennis's theory placed part of the blame on the many OCD lunatics chasing every variant of Speedmaster vintage models they could score..

 

Did you mislabel the initial graph? Shouldn't it be "Number of Speedmaster Limited Editions Introduced Each Year"?

 

Surely it can't be a manifestation of OCD?

If so, then these OCD types would be sitting on the floor rocking back and forth in the corner of their bedrooms due to all the daily variances and inconsistencies in time keeping between the watches and the clock on their connected device.

 

Money laundering...

 

It's pretty crazy...happy I bought mine some time ago!

 

"Cheap" money over the past few years, a healthy (growing) economy, and the omnipresence of social media = price inflation. The same thing has happened to vintage cars, guitars, and tube stereos.

 

How are you making those plots? And where does the data come from? I can think of a few similar analysis I'd like to run.

 

They don't have time for that - all energy is focused on ensuring the correct hands, bezel, pushers, dials, fonts are correct and original to each variant

 

Watches are never good investments.