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Mark020
··not the sharpest pencil in the ΩF drawerNice article on OF: https://orologi.forumfree.it/?t=80471837#entry674613437
Some of my thoughts:
I have recorded 15 Contaxes with (partial) serial number. To come to an estimate of production I use a couple of methods
1) Known Survivor Rate: based on other batches this number generally lies between 1% and 10% (of course 0% is an option but that is a bit a filosofical thing)
2) Tank formula (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem).
3) Some gold UG's have a number below the serial (always on the inside of the case btw). This is the number within a batch. Given that I got some of these numbers in confidence I can't share the exact numbers. But see attached for an example. For instance if the serial is 665.041 is #30 and 665.011 is #19. This means that 665.011 -/- 18 is 664.993 will be #1 in the series. In this case, by sheer coincedence, for 2 batches I could calculate the exact number because I could use the adjacent batch.
My estimate for the total production number of Contaxes is between 400 and 800 pieces. One remark: due to the fact that the specific Contax movements are hard to identify I would not be suprised if there are more Contaxes around than we think. I know of at least one which was on C24 advertised as Compur.
617.xxx from Sala 1
Some of my thoughts:
I have recorded 15 Contaxes with (partial) serial number. To come to an estimate of production I use a couple of methods
1) Known Survivor Rate: based on other batches this number generally lies between 1% and 10% (of course 0% is an option but that is a bit a filosofical thing)
2) Tank formula (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem).
3) Some gold UG's have a number below the serial (always on the inside of the case btw). This is the number within a batch. Given that I got some of these numbers in confidence I can't share the exact numbers. But see attached for an example. For instance if the serial is 665.041 is #30 and 665.011 is #19. This means that 665.011 -/- 18 is 664.993 will be #1 in the series. In this case, by sheer coincedence, for 2 batches I could calculate the exact number because I could use the adjacent batch.
My estimate for the total production number of Contaxes is between 400 and 800 pieces. One remark: due to the fact that the specific Contax movements are hard to identify I would not be suprised if there are more Contaxes around than we think. I know of at least one which was on C24 advertised as Compur.
617.xxx from Sala 1
