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Originally about tariffs and watches ... now just political rambling
Locked
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Peemacgee
··Purrrr-veyor of luxury cat box loungersOne of the few positiv effects with the Circus....from 11.17 to 9.51!
The Swedish Kronor is strong right now....
your not the only one - £GBP hitting record highs against the US$.
Since the Donald has complained about currency manipulation, perhaps this is the plan all along.
It makes US goods and services cheaper, so exports go up and the trade imbalance lessens.
However, it does make everything even more expensive for the American people - and that is on top of the Tarif-tax he's making our US of A friends pay.
Stagflation anyone?
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverFahrenheit 451 might be an outside runner?
Aspects of snow crash mixed with Idiocracy
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Waltesefalcon
·I still lean towards us heading down the route of Fahrenheit 451. We live in a society that actively eschews the pursuit of knowledge for the pursuit of instant gratification. Most studies have shown a steady down turn globally in the number of books read per year since the late 90s. Something I see pretty consistently is that my students are more reticent to engage in reading in their spare time than they were ten years ago.
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Dsloan
·It's a tangent from watches, but here's a small business owner (Catalyst Games - they make tabletop roleplaying games and do their manufacturing in China) breaking down in detail how the tariffs are affecting their operations: https://www.catalystgamelabs.com/ne...2iznnqjbC1jauYKGjw_aem_1xMM5g_WucHVgbnWMbxtLA
TL/DR: it's really tough right now and some manufacturers like them are just letting finished product sit in China because they can't afford to ship the items over. They are projecting that some of their items that usually cost $35-$40 would need to retain for closer to $60 to maintain their profit margins.
TL/DR: it's really tough right now and some manufacturers like them are just letting finished product sit in China because they can't afford to ship the items over. They are projecting that some of their items that usually cost $35-$40 would need to retain for closer to $60 to maintain their profit margins.
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kfranzk
·... We just need to have patience for the president figure out what he wants...
=> Maybe he wants a zero tariffs world, that will end up with lots of work for the poor countries, i.e. with lowest paid saleries.
But there are those non tariff barriers like social, industry, food standards aso.
=> Maybe he wants all goods for Americans manufactured and grown inland.
Ok, BMW today produces all SUVs for all countries in the US, that works fine, but with huge imports of parts, motors, gears..
But I've been heard, an US-made iPhone would cost 9.000$ ??
And there is no industry outside China producing the Rare Earths and that means seperating the single elements, and these are fundamental for all electrics and electronics.
=> But maybe he wants to get rid of the huge amount of US debt burden (att.).
I think, the US governments and citizens consume too much more than they earn.
And they pay with paper documents, they can produce themselves.
Thats why some EU governments and companies sold US bonds lastly??
Thats why the Renminbi trys hard to get standard in the BRICS countries and emerging markets.
Again where will Trump be at the end in the real world?
My own favorite at first is a zero tariff, even migration and job zone with North Amerca and Europe. And in a second run lets reduce non tariff hints.
And for China 35% custom fees are enough.
And to be honest, let the countries with lower wages produce the lowtech products.
Greetings to my US friends Konrad (in Germany)
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverI still lean towards us heading down the route of Fahrenheit 451. We live in a society that actively eschews the pursuit of knowledge for the pursuit of instant gratification. Most studies have shown a steady down turn globally in the number of books read per year since the late 90s. Something I see pretty consistently is that my students are more reticent to engage in reading in their spare time than they were ten years ago.
I think they all get it a little right. We are seeing an incredibly high-tech world with fairly obvious differences in monetary equality- a la most cyberpunk. Meanwhile to your point there are essentially literally "firemen" running about disassembling societies features and removing information. 'Ignore the evidence of your eyes and ears;' "outreach is fraud, war is peace, destructionof jobs is work" messages a la 1984.
Meanwhile in the United States in an even more dystopian twist than Soylent Green, corporations extract every single bit of material wealth from many elderly for "long-term care."
I probably need to reread Fahrenheit it's been a fair number of years.
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverMy problem with Trumps politics is, I cannot really find out where he wants to be at the end, economically and financially.
=> Maybe he wants a zero tariffs world, that will end up with lots of work for the poor countries, i.e. with lowest paid saleries.
But there are those non tariff barriers like social, industry, food standards aso.
=> Maybe he wants all goods for Americans manufactured and grown inland.
Ok, BMW today produces all SUVs for all countries in the US.
But I've been said, an iPhone would cost 9.000$ ??
And there is no industry outside China producing and that means seperating the Rare Earths, and these are fundamental for all electrics and electronics.
=> But maybe he wants to get rid of the huge amount of US debt burden (att.).
I think, the US governments and citizens consume too much more than they earn.
And they pay with paper documents, they produce themselves.
Thats why some EU governments and companies sold US bonds lastly??
Thats why the Renminbi trys hard to get standard in the BRICS countries and emerging markets.
Again where will Trump be at the end in the real world?
My favorite at first is a zero tariff zone with North Amerca and Europe. And in a second run lets reduce non tariff hints.
And for China 35% custom fees are enough.
And to be honest, let the countries with lower wages produce the lowtech products.
Konrad (in Germany)
These are governments dept only, not private. (In the numbers are billions (in US terms)
There is no end goal that will benefit the US.
Point:
Any strategy that is so wildly complicated that no one can figure out its benefits is too complicated to work.
Point:
any strategy that has results that wildly contradict or work against its stated aims is not a strategy.
Point:
No more points. They've been made in this thread ad nauseam. The people who have the capacity to understand them get it and the people that don't, won't.
this is a narcissistic temper tantrum being thrown by an individual facing his own impermanence. There is no goal other than self-enrichment and self-empowerment. Unless the goal itself is inspecific chaos.
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Dsloan
·My problem with Trumps politics is, I cannot really find out where he wants to be at the end, economically and financially.
=> Maybe he wants a zero tariffs world, that will end up with lots of work for the poor countries, i.e. with lowest paid saleries.
But there are those non tariff barriers like social, industry, food standards aso.
=> Maybe he wants all goods for Americans manufactured and grown inland.
Ok, BMW today produces all SUVs for all countries in the US.
But I've been said, an iPhone would cost 9.000$ ??
And there is no industry outside China producing and that means seperating the Rare Earths, and these are fundamental for all electrics and electronics.
=> But maybe he wants to get rid of the huge amount of US debt burden (att.).
I think, the US governments and citizens consume too much more than they earn.
And they pay with paper documents, they produce themselves.
Thats why some EU governments and companies sold US bonds lastly??
Thats why the Renminbi trys hard to get standard in the BRICS countries and emerging markets.
Again where will Trump be at the end in the real world?
My favorite at first is a zero tariff and migration and job zone with North Amerca and Europe. And in a second run lets reduce non tariff hints.
And for China 35% custom fees are enough.
And to be honest, let the countries with lower wages produce the lowtech products.
Greetings to my US friends Konrad (in Germany)
These are governments dept only, not private (the numbers are billions in US terms).
Yep. I could endure hardship if there was an important goal. Like, if our leaders said we are going to put a huge tax on oil and gas because we need to aggressively move to carbon neutrality, I'd be willing to accept a decade or two of pain for the larger greater good.
But, I just don't see a clear goal or strategy here at all.
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texasmade
·Yep. I could endure hardship if there was an important goal. Like, if our leaders said we are going to put a huge tax on oil and gas because we need to aggressively move to carbon neutrality, I'd be willing to accept a decade or two of pain for the larger greater good.
But, I just don't see a clear goal or strategy here at all.
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Archer
··Omega Qualified WatchmakerYep. I could endure hardship if there was an important goal. Like, if our leaders said we are going to put a huge tax on oil and gas because we need to aggressively move to carbon neutrality, I'd be willing to accept a decade or two of pain for the larger greater good.
But, I just don't see a clear goal or strategy here at all.
Does anyone really believe that the "deal making" process is going to be any less chaotic and scattershot than the implementation of the tariffs has been? I cannot see why anyone would think that.
I fully agree that these tariffs are driving trade deals - the question is how many of those trade deals will involve the US. There's a risk premium in US assets that wasn't there previously...where will that premium end up and what impact will it have with the ability of the US to make deals. The US has already broken trade deals, so why would we think any new deals will hold?
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverMost likely all the other countries doing trade deals with China as they've shown themselves to be more stable and reliable.
Not so sure about that. Maybe it is a devil you know type situation, I think everyone is aware of what nonsense China pulls. The nonsense America is currently pulling is the new mercurial "pseudo"-unknown.
If anything I think this highlights the sort of America-to-China Spectrum of taking trade advantage which has existed for a while.
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Dsloan
·Only clear goal I see is another tax cut for the ultra wealthy as they continue to mooch off the government.
I just don't understand the thought processes of the ultra wealthy. I'd rather be wealthy and live in a functioning democracy than be ultra wealthy in a banana republic.
But, I guess it takes a certain level of callousness to become ultra wealthy in the first place....
Most likely all the other countries doing trade deals with China as they've shown themselves to be more stable and reliable.
Man, you gotta hand it to China - they are navigating the self-destruction of Russia and the US quite effectively.
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BlackTalon
··This Space for RentIn high school, my friends and I used to debate: are we going to end up more like Brave New World or 1984? I'm currently thinking that the Handmaid's Tale is actually the winner.
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texasmade
·Not so sure about that. Maybe it is a devil you know type situation, I think everyone is aware of what nonsense China pulls. The nonsense America is currently pulling is the new mercurial "pseudo"-unknown.
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The Father
·Two wrongs don’t make a right.
It would seem that the way our government wants to encourage domestic production is to devalue our currency so much that it will eventually be cheaper to manufacture here than China.
There is no question that China has deliberately manipulated their own currency to gain an unfair trade advantage. This is not news, every administration since Nixon knew it.
But I don’t think the way to combat this is to make our people poorer via inflation so we can be the cheap labor.
And if things don’t go your way, be sure to Wag The Dog (look that up).
gatorcpa
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverChinese wage for factory worker $300 a month probably has some relevance.
Then, I think you would probably agree that is really hard to combat and still pay American workers a fair living wage. And I think we both agree, generally, that people in America deserve to live within reasonable means.
That being the case, why does it not make sense to continue to export what we are exceptional at and import the things that we cannot make that cheaply?