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Dan S
·For those who are old enough ...
Originally about tariffs and watches ... now just political rambling
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Porteroso
·Well, according to the 2018 version of Trump, we did just that, and he negotiated the best trade deal in history. He has subsequently spat the dummy and has thrown that agreement out of the pram (hope someone in the UK can verify I'm using those right!). A lot is made in the media by people who have an agenda to talk about how onerous our tariffs apparently are, but if you look at actual applied tariffs, ours were actually slightly lower than the US:
There is a binding dispute resolution mechanism in that agreement, and the US has made good use of it - the problem is they lose those cases, say with regards to dairy, which seems to be a big thorn in Trumps side. He said something about after the first "can" of milk we apply high tariffs. We don't generally get our milk in cans here - bags, yes certainly! 😉
On dairy, the US doesn't even use the allocations that they negotiated, so these high tariffs that are constantly talked about are never actually levied...
This is again a significant underestimation of how serious this is here. Political memory is one thing, betrayal is another thing completely, and that's how Canadians feel, betrayed by our closest ally. That feeling and the repercussion of it is not going away any time soon.
I think most Americans think Trump is going about this in quite an inelegant way, but will benefit greatly if we can just get to a place where we have free trade, no barriers. That's what is being fought over. I am not sure where Trump wants this to end, but it is what he has said before, and a free trade situation is the only thing that makes sense.
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NGO1
·I think most Americans think Trump is going about this in quite an inelegant way, but will benefit greatly if we can just get to a place where we have free trade, no barriers.
It’s a global jolt. I’ll wait and see if it’s busies usual for SP500 next 2 earnings.
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texasmade
·I thought the goal was to reshore American manufacturing jobs or was it to reduce our debt? Really Trump had no real end goal because the tariff plan made no real sense in accomplishing the goal of reshoring, reducing debt, or reducing tariffs.
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverI thought the goal was to reshore American manufacturing jobs or was it to reduce our debt? Really Trump had no real end goal because the tariff plan made no real sense in accomplishing the goal of reshoring, reducing debt, or reducing tariffs.
Hence the problem with approaching this as if logic was involved. It's really easy to find a motive that makes some sort of sense if you ignore the supposed stated goal and substitute a different wanted outcome.
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Archer
··Omega Qualified WatchmakerTariffs are only one piece of the puzzle. Canada restricts many aspects of importing through NTBs. I won't comment further, or argue about it, just say that not only Canada, but many countries, have indeed taken advantage of the United States, restricting goods from it to protect their profits, and certain industries.
I think most Americans think Trump is going about this in quite an inelegant way, but will benefit greatly if we can just get to a place where we have free trade, no barriers. That's what is being fought over. I am not sure where Trump wants this to end, but it is what he has said before, and a free trade situation is the only thing that makes sense.
1 - The US farmers use growth hormone to increase milk production, and in Canada that is not permitted. I would not want to drink US milk personally, and many here feel the same. No amount of trade arguments are going to solve that one.
2 - The US dairy industry is heavily subsidized, both directly and indirectly. Removal of tariffs and NTB's does not in any way level the playing field. If the US wanted to really do this, they would have to stop subsidizing the dairy industry in the US, and that isn't going to happen any time soon.
I'll give an honorable mention to the fact that we still have many small family dairy farms here (although some consolidation is still happening) and our supply management system allows those to be something that a farmer can earn a living from, and not have to sell out to some large corporation.
If you want free trade, then negotiate for it. The trade deal he made last time with Canada and the US is up for renewal next year, and we have already indicated that we are willing and able to sit down and renegotiate early if the US wants us to. Instead of doing that, they make enemies of us, essentially rip the "greatest trade deal ever" and prove to us that they are an unreliable trading partner that cannot be trusted to abide by the agreements they willingly signed.
Now you can disagree with these points certainly, but they are things that would have to be worked out before we are going to give up our markets. If you think this is somehow unfair, and we are ripping you off somehow, then so be it. But this illustrates that removal of trade barriers is only a small piece of a much larger and more complex puzzle, and one that isn't going to be solved on a watch forum...
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Archer
··Omega Qualified WatchmakerHence the problem with approaching this as if logic was involved. It's really easy to find a motive that make some sort of sense if you ignore the supposed stated goal and substitute a different wanted outcome.
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CalgaryJim
·I'm a big fan of free trade, but this is a horrible analogy.
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CalgaryJim
·
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Mtek
·Hence the problem with approaching this as if logic was involved. It's really easy to find a motive that make some sort of sense if you ignore the supposed stated goal and substitute a different wanted outcome.
I’ve seen this several times in this thread, ad hominem attacks. Quite frankly, I thought this group would be above it.
I voted for the current admin, and the first time ever for a Republican. They are governing exactly how they said they would during the campaign. The current admin has a higher approval than the left leaning Congress. The way things were in the past, is what caused the rise of someone like Trump. No more business as usual. I am fine with it.
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverI’ve seen this several times in this thread, ad hominem attacks. Quite frankly, I thought this group would be above it.
I voted for the current admin, and the first time ever for a Republican. They are governing exactly how they said they would during the campaign. The current admin has a higher approval than the left leaning Congress. The way things were in the past, is what caused the rise of someone like Trump. No more business as usual. I am fine with it.
I can understand why you think it is an ad hominem attack. However, ad hominem attacks go directly after someone's character while ignoring what they said, essentially asserting "what you said was wrong because you are/have personality trait X" and therefore never have to address the item being argued.
In point of fact, my post is not an ad hominem attack. I am looking specifically at what the current administration has stated and am contrasting it directly to their actions and the outcomes, and I am stating that it doesn't make sense (which is therefore illogical). As a single example, we know- beyond any reasonable doubt- that the amounts the US is supposedly being tariffed by other nations are an absolute fabrication and instead are based upon trade deficit. There's a lot that's been discussed about trade deficit in this thread and how it actually works. De facto, the tariffs we are assigning to other countries are irrational. There are a lot of ways I could describe that but I'll stick with "in the absence of logic."
It is absolutely possible to call someone illogical after examining their actions and it not be ad hominem, and I understand why you're upset by that. I appreciate you being direct in expressing yourself.
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Dan S
·Hence the problem with approaching this as if logic was involved. It's really easy to find a motive that makes some sort of sense if you ignore the supposed stated goal and substitute a different wanted outcome.
I’ve seen this several times in this thread, ad hominem attacks. Quite frankly, I thought this group would be above it.
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Mtek
·I can understand why you think it is an ad hominem attack. However, ad hominem attacks go directly after someone's character while ignoring what they said, essentially asserting "what you said was wrong because you are (or have) personality trait X" and therefore never have to address the item being argued.
In point of fact, my post is not an ad hominem attack. I am looking specifically at what the current administration has stated and am contrasting it directly to their actions and the outcomes, and I am stating that it doesn't make sense (which is therefore illogical). As a single example, we know- beyond any reasonable doubt- that the amounts the US is supposedly being tariffed by other nations are an absolute fabrication and instead are based upon trade deficit. There's a lot that's been discussed about trade deficit in this thread and how it actually works. De facto, the tariffs we are assigning to other countries are irrational. There are a lot of ways I could describe that but I'll stick with "in the absence of logic."
@Dan S A lot of “experts” got the US into the predicament it is in.
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Mtek
·Left leaning Congress? The one headed by Mike Johnson in the House and Thune in the Senate? Give me a break!
I didn’t mean that as the majority, I was trying to imply the Dem and Progressive members. Apologies if I worded incorrectly.
Bottom line, people are happier with Trump than the alternative. I am one of them. Have a nice day.
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Porteroso
·I can understand why you think it is an ad hominem attack. However, ad hominem attacks go directly after someone's character while ignoring what they said, essentially asserting "what you said was wrong because you are/have personality trait X" and therefore never have to address the item being argued.
In point of fact, my post is not an ad hominem attack. I am looking specifically at what the current administration has stated and am contrasting it directly to their actions and the outcomes, and I am stating that it doesn't make sense (which is therefore illogical). As a single example, we know- beyond any reasonable doubt- that the amounts the US is supposedly being tariffed by other nations are an absolute fabrication and instead are based upon trade deficit. There's a lot that's been discussed about trade deficit in this thread and how it actually works. De facto, the tariffs we are assigning to other countries are irrational. There are a lot of ways I could describe that but I'll stick with "in the absence of logic."
It is absolutely possible to call someone illogical after examining their actions and it not be ad hominem, and I understand why you're upset by that. I appreciate you being direct in expressing yourself.
And Trump didn't really upset the markets much first term. Some, but the markets were strong. So that is explained by either tariffs (which would cripple the world economy) not being the goal, or the second term version being a very different person.
The fact that they are yet again paused just means he is more interested in negotiation than the tariffs themselves.
And looking for logic, for a reason, is simply what people do. You might not want to, but given how much money I've lost over the course of this train wreck, I am quite interested.
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Mtek
·Ah, the standard line from the authoritarian playbook. Thanks for showing your true colors.
I’m not trying to confuse you with facts Dan, but I haven’t hid them. I am open, and have been. I will also take a populist over a Trudeau. The current gop party has expanded over every demographic in my country for a reason.
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ErichPryde
··Seamasters ForeverOn the lack of logic topic, I think we cannot know that. Maybe we don't know what the logic is, but that doesn't mean there is no plan. Say the goal was the same goal Trump has been talking about for years. Fair trade, zero for zero. How does he get the leverage he needs to make it happen? I can't think of another way other than what he's doing. Of course before this, I wouldn't have been able to think of this scenario either.
And Trump didn't really upset the markets much first term. Some, but the markets were strong. So that is explained by either tariffs (which would cripple the world economy) not being the goal, or the second term version being a very different person.
The fact that they are yet again paused just means he is more interested in negotiation than the tariffs themselves.
And looking for logic, for a reason, is simply what people do. You might not want to, but given how much money I've lost over the course of this train wreck, I am quite interested.
An excellent response, thank you. I agree with a lot of what you've said and I think this is an interesting conversation worth pursuing. I'll come back to it a bit later, as I am about to throw some discs with my kids.
