October 5th 2020 - Snoopy Celebration

petay993 · Dec 1, 2020

Archer
Well, yes I get that...I was wondering if there was something specific that you believed would be the delay due to complexity, lack of resources, etc.

I didn't mention delay in this context.

I believe that that in going for such an unusual and intricate caseback design Omega must have been aiming for limited production as it just doesn't have a mass produced feel about it and it will be more expensive to put together than your average Rolex caseback for example.

Of course I could be wrong and they may be geared up to turn out tons of them but I would be very surprised. Time will tell. I am firmly in the limited camp, others clearly feel this will run over 20k units and all demand will be met. It will be interesting to see how it plays.

My invoice states Feb 28th delivery.

YHY · Dec 1, 2020

P petay993
Some communication would be great, particularly as Omega appear to have delayed the start of distribution. I am wondering if they have been caught out by the level of demand and are re thinking allocation strategy and production run.

I still firmly believe production will be limited by the design.

I don't think this piece is overpriced next to a Daytona and might even look reasonable value once the pricing on the new standard Moonwatch is revealed

my OB told me swiss HQ took over the allocation. so what was decided in country has been superseded

Archer · Dec 1, 2020

P petay993
I didn't mention delay in this context.

I believe that that in going for such an unusual and intricate caseback design Omega must have been aiming for limited production as it just doesn't have a mass produced feel about it and it will be more expensive to put together than your average Rolex caseback for example.

Of course I could be wrong and they may be geared up to turn out tons of them but I would be very surprised. Time will tell. I am firmly in the limited camp, others clearly feel this will run over 20k units and all demand will be met. It will be interesting to see how it plays.

My invoice states Feb 28th delivery.

Yes, true, my bad. I was thinking of the previous Snoopy while I was writing that, and that one was delayed due to the difficulties in making the case backs.

I don't believe there is any technical reason for them to limit production. You had mentioned the expense, but the expense is already covered in what they are charging for the watch.

The actual technical execution of this case back is very simple. Install a different fourth wheel on the movement, and a different chronograph wheel, press the globe on the fourth wheel, the Snoopy capsule on the chronograph wheel, mount the case back, and you are done. There's nothing particularly complex about the parts or their assembly.

Decisions on how may to make of a given watch are rarely determined by technical reasons, and almost always driven by marketing.

Cheers, Al

Martin_J_N · Dec 1, 2020

Archer
Decisions on how may to make of a given watch are rarely determined by technical reasons, and almost always driven by marketing.

Yep, marketing rules and if people continue to buy the watch, Omega will continue to make the watch, what do Omega have to lose by making as many as they can sell.

Just my few cents of uninformed opinion. 😀

sgrossma · Dec 1, 2020

Martin_J_N
Yep, marketing rules and if people continue to buy the watch, Omega will continue to make the watch, what do Omega have to lose by making as many as they can sell.

Just my few cents of uninformed opinion. 😀

I unfortunately can't help myself anymore from replying to these comments - this is what comes with being home all day, everyday, perhaps.

What do they have to lose? Oh, nothing but long term brand value.

I hate to keep comparing Omega to Rolex (because I know they are very different), but Rolex could easily ramp up production and make more Subs, GMTs, and Daytona's if they would like. AP can make more 15202 blue dials. Etc.

Omega makes luxury watches. Luxury watches lose perceived value when everyone has them. Omega is doing the best they can to find a balance - or at least a better balance than other brands.

But to propose that they will pump out as many as they can would go against good business sense and is nonsense.

Sell more of 1 run of watches today and fulfil all demand (hurt resale value, hurt brand value)? Or constrain supply (to a degree) and keep people coming back for more and more (maintain/add value, strengthen brand value)?

Come on....!

Archer · Dec 1, 2020

sgrossma
Sell more of 1 run of watches today and fulfil all demand (hurt resale value, hurt brand value)? Or constrain supply (to a degree) and keep people coming back for more and more (maintain/add value, strengthen brand value)?

Come on....!

But it's clearly far more complex than the simple binary choices you have presented. You will upset people either way, so Omega has decided to upset fewer people (in the "keep it very exclusive camp" like you) in order to satisfy the rest who just want the watch. They have upset a lot of people with some releases over the past 5 years that were very limited and sold out immediately. This upset fewer people.

Anyone who is familiar with Omega already knows they produce a lot of watches, a lot of models, and they typically aren't hard to get. Applying some other business model that Omega has never really used on a wide scale, would be a massive shift in their strategy.

sgrossma · Dec 1, 2020

I am suggesting it is a balance (meet as much demand as possible without harming brand value).

The Speedmaster Professionals (especially the "special/limited/etc" models) are often the most coveted and desired watches in the modern Omega era. It is hard to say that when these watches aren't trading at/near/above MSRP, that it is also not good for other Omega lines, and the brand as a whole. Trading value aside, the prestige of having a luxury good that not everyone can get also helps value. Most Omega watches can be gotten, though. A very few can't.

It is impossible to make 100% of people happy. But bigger picture strategy, a few 100 or few 1000 people who can't get 1 specific watch does not seem quite as bad as the flagship line of watches not holding value due to oversaturation. I talk a lot about value, but it is important factor for many people. Nobody wants to buy a watch that lose 40% the day they walk out of the store. It really hurts. That is why I have not bought an IWC new at a store since 2008. And I have bought many Omegas. I have limited resources and I can buy many watches if they hold value, but only a very few if they lose 40% constantly.

There will always be upset people, yes. One thing Omega has usually been good at (relatively speaking) is giving everyone the opportunity to get a desired watch. As I have said before, If you are a Speedmaster fanatic and follow Instagram and the forums, occasionally email the nearest boutique it is very hard to miss out on the latest offering. If you come along 2 weeks or 2 years after the release - you might not get the watch and yes, you might have some upset people.
But those you want it, stay in the know, and act accordingly, generally can get any Omega watch (at least here in the US).

Martin_J_N · Dec 1, 2020

sgrossma
I unfortunately can't help myself anymore from replying to these comments - this is what comes with being home all day, everyday, perhaps.

What do they have to lose? Oh, nothing but long term brand value.

I hate to keep comparing Omega to Rolex (because I know they are very different), but Rolex could easily ramp up production and make more Subs, GMTs, and Daytona's if they would like. AP can make more 15202 blue dials. Etc.

Omega makes luxury watches. Luxury watches lose perceived value when everyone has them. Omega is doing the best they can to find a balance - or at least a better balance than other brands.

But to propose that they will pump out as many as they can would go against good business sense and is nonsense.

Sell more of 1 run of watches today and fulfil all demand (hurt resale value, hurt brand value)? Or constrain supply (to a degree) and keep people coming back for more and more (maintain/add value, strengthen brand value)?

Come on....!

In my opinion Omega will want to maximise sales of this watch, ultimately they will put a stop to production which in effect will create a limit to the number produced, but how many are produced will be dependant on demand, to that end I believe that Omega will look to produce around 15K or more if the demand is there.

Larrysimon · Dec 1, 2020

w@tcher
... and how many years are you waiting for the Daytona?

Sort of 12 months asked but really didn't expect it, thou I have bought 4 x Rolex in last 18 months.

wolfe44 · Dec 1, 2020

I think some people on here are vastly overestimating the market for a bright blue speedmaster with a cartoon dog on the front and back. Cool watch for sure, but not something everybody actually wants. Then tell them it costs over $9,000 usd and the number gets even smaller. I would guess a significant portion of the interest in this watch comes from the sky high values of the last snoopy, and people thinking they can own an appreciating asset. I think they will sell one to anybody willing to cough up the change, which isn't as many people as you might think (maybe that's only 7000 or so worldwide?) But what do I know?

texasmade · Dec 1, 2020

wolfe44
I think some people on here are vastly overestimating the market for a bright blue speedmaster with a cartoon dog on the front and back. Cool watch for sure, but not something everybody actually wants. Then tell them it costs over $9,000 usd and the number gets even smaller. I would guess a significant portion of the interest in this watch comes from the sky high values of the last snoopy, and people thinking they can own an appreciating asset. I think they will sell one to anybody willing to cough up the change, which isn't as many people as you might think (maybe that's only 7000 or so worldwide?) But what do I know?

Really, they're overestimating the number of people who will spend nearly $10k on a watch after tax. That market is much smaller than most people think.

KingKitega · Dec 1, 2020

texasmade
Really, they're overestimating the number of people who will spend nearly $10k on a watch after tax. That market is much smaller than most people think.

And those numbers would be a lot smaller if Omega turn the 50th snoopy into a cash cow. Nowadays the modern watch enthusiast is all about investment and profit, and they want it yesterday, which is sad.

Archer · Dec 1, 2020

sgrossma
I am suggesting it is a balance (meet as much demand as possible without harming brand value).

I am suggesting the same thing. We simply differ on what production volumes "harm brand value"...

sgrossma
Nobody wants to buy a watch that lose 40% the day they walk out of the store.

This happens with most brands. The idea that these watches should trade at or above retail value, is a relatively new thing, driven mostly by Rolex and a few other "hot" watches in recent years.

sgrossma
There will always be upset people, yes. One thing Omega has usually been good at (relatively speaking) is giving everyone the opportunity to get a desired watch. As I have said before, If you are a Speedmaster fanatic and follow Instagram and the forums, occasionally email the nearest boutique it is very hard to miss out on the latest offering. If you come along 2 weeks or 2 years after the release - you might not get the watch and yes, you might have some upset people.
But those you want it, stay in the know, and act accordingly, generally can get any Omega watch (at least here in the US).

You are clearly very focused on the collector mindset here, which is missing the majority of Omega's market. Most non-fanatical collectors just want to be able to buy a watch, and not have to jump through hoops to do it.

You essentially want Omega to create false scarcity, and IMO that would be a bad idea long term.

Duckie · Dec 1, 2020

KingKitega
And those numbers would be a lot smaller if Omega turn the 50th snoopy into a cash cow. Nowadays the modern watch enthusiast is all about investment and profit, and they want it yesterday, which is sad.

It's largely about investment and profit, which is indeed rather sad🙁
But it is what it is and perhaps when or if the music stops there will be some nice bargains to be had like back in the good old days👎

Duckie · Dec 1, 2020

texasmade
Really, they're overestimating the number of people who will spend nearly $10k on a watch after tax. That market is much smaller than most people think.

It depends upon the perceived value.
The metrics that determine this value will be subject to individual "collector's" priorities.
It's a very fast changing world.

EricCsN · Dec 1, 2020

L Larrysimon
Sort of 12 months asked but really didn't expect it, thou I have bought 4 x Rolex in last 18 months.

believe me that makes you an occasional customer, maybe a good one. But not a VIP. just super lucky.

texasmade · Dec 1, 2020

EricCsN
believe me that makes you an occasional customer, maybe a good one. But not a VIP. just super lucky.

Depends if he bought 4 SS sports models (unlikely but possible) or he bought a bunch of ladies models or PM models. Buying nothing but SS models doesn’t really help much.

scapa · Dec 1, 2020

Archer
I am suggesting the same thing. We simply differ on what production volumes "harm brand value"...

This happens with most brands. The idea that these watches should trade at or above retail value, is a relatively new thing, driven mostly by Rolex and a few other "hot" watches in recent years.

You are clearly very focused on the collector mindset here, which is missing the majority of Omega's market. Most non-fanatical collectors just want to be able to buy a watch, and not have to jump through hoops to do it.

You essentially want Omega to create false scarcity, and IMO that would be a bad idea long term.

I agree that it would absolutely be a bad idea longterm to create false scarcity across, say, their full lineup of professional steel sports watches. Not sure that managing/restricting the supply of one long-awaited, much-hyped halo product is likely to have any longterm effects. If people who can't find a Snoopy straightaway settle for a 3861 Speedy while they wait, then will there really be much of a toll on goodwill?

I do prefer the general accessibility of offerings and seeming lack of cynicism in Omega's business model vs. some others. But I also get the allure of using a hit product to leverage a line into new pricing and perceived brand value territory. I don't know how much of that momentum might shift with a "Snoopy on every wrist" strategy (to paraphrase Longines). But either suits me, and I guess we'll see.

EricCsN · Dec 1, 2020

texasmade
Depends if he bought 4 SS sports models (unlikely but possible) or he bought a bunch of ladies models or PM models. Buying nothing but SS models doesn’t really help much.

I giving the read benefit of the doubt, whatever to the contrary that I have left unsaid on it

Archer · Dec 1, 2020

scapa
Not sure that managing/restricting the supply of one long-awaited, much-hyped halo product is likely to have any longterm effects.

I agree, so that means that the way Omega is handling this watch is unlikely to “devalue” the brand as has been suggested.