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Mark020
··not the sharpest pencil in the ΩF drawerVery interesting article on Swatch: https://insideparadeplatz.ch/2023/08/28/nick-hayek-jr-jeden-trend-verschlafen/
Some nice info in it:
Some nice info in it:
Nick Hayek Jr.: Overslept every trend
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DrmexicoII
·That was an interesting read. Almost feels like a hatchet job (that might be in some part to Google translate) but it's backed up with some hard facts that are difficult to dispute. Given the Moonswatch is seen as a massive success it's interesting to see it's not changed the underlying performance of the group (if I've interpretated the data correctly), or is it too early to say? Do we need to wait for the next set of accounts?
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noelekal
··Home For Wayward WatchesOn that chart it will be seen that other Swatch Group brands are sagging as well.
I always pull for Longines and though that Longines was in the ascendancy, but that chart claims that it is not so.
I always pull for Longines and though that Longines was in the ascendancy, but that chart claims that it is not so.
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Mark020
··not the sharpest pencil in the ΩF drawerI'm surprised about Richard Mille
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Dan S
·At first glance that chart looks pretty damning and one wonders why the board wouldn't bring in new leadership. I really don't know that much about the company, is it publicly traded but still basically controlled by the family?
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pdxleaf
··So on and so on and scoobie doobie dooThe original Morgan Stanley report says the chart is based on sales revenue. This seems to benefit brands who sell higher cost products. Wouldn't this mean that Longines is a very strong player as it would need to sell more individual watches to reach a higher level on the chart since their products are less costly? If so, Swatch group hardly seems asleep at the wheel.
The same Morgan Stanley report stated the following:
"Vacheron Constantin jumped two positions from 2020 to 2021, and with a new strategy (based on our own research) that has similarities to Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille — which is to micromanage the inventory to affect demand — it may already be working. "
Micromanaging inventory sounds similar to Rolex. Micromanaging inventory may increase near term sales but is it a strong long term strategy?
The OP article chides Omega for lower profitability due partly to more spending on capital. This might be a good thing if it means the company is investing in itself and increasing its ability to grow.
I was surprised by the increase in position by Breitling. Maybe it reflects their heritage models? Breitling doesn't feel like it is as strong a brand currently.
This OP article feels like a disgruntled stockholder.
The same Morgan Stanley report stated the following:
"Vacheron Constantin jumped two positions from 2020 to 2021, and with a new strategy (based on our own research) that has similarities to Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille — which is to micromanage the inventory to affect demand — it may already be working. "
Micromanaging inventory sounds similar to Rolex. Micromanaging inventory may increase near term sales but is it a strong long term strategy?
The OP article chides Omega for lower profitability due partly to more spending on capital. This might be a good thing if it means the company is investing in itself and increasing its ability to grow.
I was surprised by the increase in position by Breitling. Maybe it reflects their heritage models? Breitling doesn't feel like it is as strong a brand currently.
This OP article feels like a disgruntled stockholder.
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Mark020
··not the sharpest pencil in the ΩF drawerBreitling went from #19 to 9. Not bad tbh.
Their collection now is imho better than in the past (but still not very interesting)
Their collection now is imho better than in the past (but still not very interesting)
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Dan S
·The original Morgan Stanley report says the chart is based on sales revenue. This seems to benefit brands who sell higher cost products. Wouldn't this mean that Longines is a very strong player as it would need to sell more individual watches to reach a higher level on the chart since their products are less costly? If so, Swatch group hardly seems asleep at the wheel.
The same Morgan Stanley report stated the following:
"Vacheron Constantin jumped two positions from 2020 to 2021, and with a new strategy (based on our own research) that has similarities to Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille — which is to micromanage the inventory to affect demand — it may already be working. "
Micromanaging inventory sounds similar to Rolex. Micromanaging inventory may increase near term sales but is it a strong long term strategy?
The OP article chides Omega for lower profitability due partly to more spending on capital. This might be a good thing if it means the company is investing in itself and increasing its ability to grow.
I was surprised by the increase in position by Breitling. Maybe it reflects their heritage models? Breitling doesn't feel like it is as strong a brand currently.
This OP article feels like a disgruntled stockholder.
The article could certainly have been written by an unhappy stockholder, but I don't see how anyone associated with the company would be happy with that chart.
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pdxleaf
··So on and so on and scoobie doobie dooYou're right that revenue and unit sales provide different information. But I think that market share by sales revenue is a legitimate metric, and perhaps more relevant than unit sales from a business perspective (although it would be interesting to get insight into profits, obviously).
Yep, profit trumps revenue.
As a business, you need strong revenue. But revenue alone doesn't indicate popularity, if that was part of the intent.
Longines and Tissot watches may be less expensive than the other brands in the top 10, but moving steadily downward in market share while selling a lot of watches does not sound good for business. Especially since all the Swatch brands are moving downward together.
Some of these changed positions took place the last few years, with Longines losing position to AP, PP, and RM. There's likely a pandemic effect. These brands have taken big hits in 2023, with 20% or so decreases in prices. Can they maintain that revenue?
As many such charts state, these results are not indicators of future performance. It would surprise me more if Longines wasn't able to move up in the next couple years.
Cartier was a bit of a surprise to me. I knew they were strong, but a little surprised that strong. Still, i tried on a large Santos the other day and I really liked it. I could see a used one in my future.
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Vercingetorix
··Spam RiskI simply do not care who sells the most watches, I buy what I like and I don’t own anything from Rolex.
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Archer
··Omega Qualified WatchmakerNever heard of this publication before, but noticed this...
"Inside Paradeplatz is published by well-known authors who do not wish to appear under their name."
I can understand why whoever wrote this wants to remain anonymous.
It seems that Nick Hayek pissed in this persons coffee or something, It seems less about the business than it is a personal attack.
I think anyone who's paying attention knows that Swatch got hit badly when China cracked down on corruption, and they are slowly recovering from that. They also made significant changes on how ETA supplies movements - they did this to encourage the very thing that the author criticizes them for - to promote others to make movements instead of just relying on ETA all the time. Before this ETA were supplying movements so that their competitors would be able to take sales from Swatch's own brands - that made no sense long term.
Swatch group is a very different company than it was in 2003. Just looking at Omega the sheer investment made in new technologies and materials is astounding. This report IMO misses the bigger picture.
"Inside Paradeplatz is published by well-known authors who do not wish to appear under their name."
I can understand why whoever wrote this wants to remain anonymous.
It seems that Nick Hayek pissed in this persons coffee or something, It seems less about the business than it is a personal attack.
I think anyone who's paying attention knows that Swatch got hit badly when China cracked down on corruption, and they are slowly recovering from that. They also made significant changes on how ETA supplies movements - they did this to encourage the very thing that the author criticizes them for - to promote others to make movements instead of just relying on ETA all the time. Before this ETA were supplying movements so that their competitors would be able to take sales from Swatch's own brands - that made no sense long term.
Swatch group is a very different company than it was in 2003. Just looking at Omega the sheer investment made in new technologies and materials is astounding. This report IMO misses the bigger picture.
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Syrte
·Very interesting there is NO mention in this article of Nick Hayek’s slamming the door shut on Baselworld—
Calling them arrogant, unwilling to listen to their clients needs, and not needed because social networks had changed the way Swatch group could connect to its client base. Talk about an institution missing trends and taking customers for granted!
Baselworld’s management company MCH as I understand had spent 350 million euros redoing the convention center, and counts the cities of Basel and Zurich among its shareholders.
In those large banking centers I’m sure there’s no love lost for Hayek. Baselworld brought tons of business to the city and the losses must have angered many.
Aside from irrelevant score settling involving alleged Rolex family connections tied to a Swatch building, the article is not a balanced examination.
Eg it fails to analyze one critical aspect of the market which seems a very plausible explanation for Swatch group losing some sales or ranking in the past four years: it’s customer base is a very broad one which also includes people whose disposable income is sensitive to crises, like Covid and inflation- whereas Richemont, Rolex, and Patek all cater to more wealthy buyers for whom crises have a lesser impact.
PS Of course it’s possible Hayek angered some of his own shareholders. But this is written as an opinion piece, not as a respectable and well sourced inquiry.
Calling them arrogant, unwilling to listen to their clients needs, and not needed because social networks had changed the way Swatch group could connect to its client base. Talk about an institution missing trends and taking customers for granted!
Baselworld’s management company MCH as I understand had spent 350 million euros redoing the convention center, and counts the cities of Basel and Zurich among its shareholders.
In those large banking centers I’m sure there’s no love lost for Hayek. Baselworld brought tons of business to the city and the losses must have angered many.
Aside from irrelevant score settling involving alleged Rolex family connections tied to a Swatch building, the article is not a balanced examination.
Eg it fails to analyze one critical aspect of the market which seems a very plausible explanation for Swatch group losing some sales or ranking in the past four years: it’s customer base is a very broad one which also includes people whose disposable income is sensitive to crises, like Covid and inflation- whereas Richemont, Rolex, and Patek all cater to more wealthy buyers for whom crises have a lesser impact.
PS Of course it’s possible Hayek angered some of his own shareholders. But this is written as an opinion piece, not as a respectable and well sourced inquiry.
Edited:
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scapa
·On that chart it will be seen that other Swatch Group brands are sagging as well.
I always pull for Longines and though that Longines was in the ascendancy, but that chart claims that it is not so.
Me too. Having said that, the only Longines I've actually hung onto lately have been vintage models. Still, there's plenty o' those.
But both Longines and Tissot seem to be making fine watches at their price points that people want, and even sleeper brands like Mido are enjoying a bit of an uptick. Maybe the new SwatchFathoms helps prime the pumps.
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Syrte
·
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