Musings on the strength of the vintage watch market, e.g., Speedmasters…

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I don't believe prices for vintage watches are declining at all. If anything, prices have skyrocketed. I am not referring to high end examples as previously discussed, instead, it seems to me your average watch is being listed by google-savvy sellers as if it were solid unobtanium in more instances every day.

This one listed for 500$ as we speak 😲
The ad says: "lightly damaged dial"

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The worst part is that people are also apparently buying them! Saw a jaw dropping ending price on eBay for a very mediocre Seawolf with 40+ bidders last week. If I could get that much for mine I would sell them all!
Same here. I have dozens of ended auctions in my eBay list with end bids that are 20 to 40% higher then let 's say 5 years ago.

Edit:

It's almost like the housing market in Amsterdam. Here a example of a appartment nearby my house of 112m2. Almost doubled in just a couple of years. Same with watches.
Edited:
 
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Same here. I have dozens of ended auctions in my eBay list with end bids that are 20 to 40% higher then let 's say 5 years ago.

Edit:

It's almost like the housing market in Amsterdam. Here a example of a appartment nearby my house of 112m2. Almost doubled in just a couple of years. Same with watches.
But wages have not doubled…and people wonder why we are in trouble
 
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For years people on forums and Hodinkee were discovering new models— it was an era of pioneers.
Then came the settlers and the merchants, we’re still in it— they buy up the territory for as much money as they can invest, they farm it, and the ones who call the shots are the highest bidders. As @LouS once observed, the discussion turns to minutiae of whether everything is correct.
And now we are hitting the point where many of the nice vintage watches have come out of the drawers; they sit in bank safe or private collections,’there’s not much left to discuss or discover— and people have to move on.

This articulates the phenomenon best, I think.

No party lasts forever.

Somewhere down the road, maybe, a new generation will discover vintage timepieces. And then, the process will start over again. If not, well then, you might as well enjoy all those safe queens now…

I used to think vintage fountain pens would come back again. I don’t think that anymore.
 
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I think the varying perspectives here are interesting. I will keep this relatively brief, as some of it has been said already in this thread, but I have not seen a decline in prices for vintage sports watches over the past 1-2 years. Speedmasters, Daytonas, Carreras, Tudor Subs, etc. may have eased back on the exponential growth that was occurring, but good / great examples are still fetching similar, if not more money than they were a couple of years ago.

What I have noticed is a decline in discourse for these vintage sports watches. As others mentioned, the typical hunting grounds for enthusiasts (Craigslist, eBay, estate sales) have truly dried up relative to the past 5-10 years. These are models that are well documented and understood, so when the community is not able to discuss amazing, fresh-to-market finds that get people excited, the result is a drop in discourse. I don't believe this has a directly correlated impact on pricing trends - I think it just represents that the supply has dwindled to the point where the most interesting "everyman" finds are largely extinct.

Similarly, many trendsetters (and investors) have shifted focus to independent watches in the past two years. FP Journe started it, Lange is now following suit, and for the apex pieces (Dufour, RWSmiths, Rexheps) there is a feeding frenzy. As prices for these rise to the point of insanity, I believe you'll see some of these same trendsetters shift back to vintage ("there is so much value in vintage relative to an FPJ Chronometre Bleu for $150K!") and start the vintage feeding frenzy up all over again.

But hey, this is all just guesswork and armchair quarterbacking. In the meantime, I will be holding and enjoying the vintage pieces I have spent years finding and acquiring.
 
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Somewhere down the road, maybe, a new generation will discover vintage timepieces. And then, the process will start over again. If not, well then, you might as well enjoy all those safe queens now…

I used to think vintage fountain pens would come back again. I don’t think that anymore.

As I watch shows like the Antiques Roadshow, and other shows that focus on collectible items, there is something that happens over time with these items, that I think is best illustrated in the market for toys. People tend to collect what they saw and liked as a child, as a way of bringing back their childhood, so when they get old enough to have some money, and those items get bought up, the prices rise. But after a generation or two maybe, those things were not the toys of the people who are coming into their prime earning years, so the values decline.

I think watches are somewhat sheltered from this "aging out" phenomenon, but not completely immune to it. Before the relatively recent boom in vintage collecting, it was a much smaller sub-set of the watch collecting hobby, and will be that again, if it isn't already. Just how big it will be is the key question.
 
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The word on the street, for years, is never to send a decent quality vintage Omega in to the company for repairs. I don’t know about you, but if they had a dedicated service department for dealing with valuable/cherished timepieces where one could interface with the people that do the repairs, and be sure that they would do them within the boundaries of maintaining originality, I would certainly use them, even if expensive.

My car guy sells me my car and is very much interested in having me do the service there; why not watches?
 
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The word on the street, for years, is never to send a decent quality vintage Omega in to the company for repairs. I don’t know about you, but if they had a dedicated service department for dealing with valuable/cherished timepieces where one could interface with the people that do the repairs, and be sure that they would do them within the boundaries of maintaining originality, I would certainly use them, even if expensive.

My car guy sells me my car and is very much interested in having me do the service there; why not watches?

Very true, the factory that made the product may be the best equipped to fix or service it.

Usung the car analogy, most dealers seem to me to be more expensive than independent garages for service. So there is some benefit to more mechanics and more competition for customers.

My father in law is a retired mechanic. He spoke about this often, as toward the end of his career he could no longer service some easy jobs because he needed a specialized tool that cost 1k to swap a $25 part. He attributed it to the manufacturers trying to keep their service departments going.

But few things are all good or all bad. I also wonder how much the cost of service plays into the decision making for someone considering a vintage piece. Probably more so for an experienced hobbyist/collector than someone new to watches?
 
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My car guy sells me my car and is very much interested in having me do the service there; why not watches?
For the same reason water bottle manufacturers don't sell refills. They aren't water companies, they are water bottle manufacturers. For a water bottle manufacturer, the margin on selling a bottle is stupendous; in the same regard, the margin of selling a wristwatch is stupendous. Cars are different for they aren't a luxury product. You can't buy a $2 car.

In recent years, watch manufacturers have increasingly been attempting to frustrate third party watch maintenance by restricting parts availability. Maintaining a watch is discouraged because they'd rather sell new watches. The profit is in sales, not maintenance.

I think this boils down to a lack of integrity in the watch industry. A lot of watch companies don't need their customers liking them, for the demand for their products is so high they don't need customers to bond with their brand. All they need is for customers to feel status by owning their watch, which further encourages the arrogance of brands and the artificial scarcity of products ('you're lucky if you manage to obtain a sports model').
 
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Personally I think that humans fascination/fixation with mortality keeps interest in time keeping alive for many, many generations past present and future. Having said that, what will be collectible in 10-20+ years is beyond what my crystal ball can see. Maybe 1st gen iwatches, maybe old sun dials.... who knows but dont think the focus on time will end....ever.
 
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The word on the street, for years, is never to send a decent quality vintage Omega in to the company for repairs. I don’t know about you, but if they had a dedicated service department for dealing with valuable/cherished timepieces where one could interface with the people that do the repairs, and be sure that they would do them within the boundaries of maintaining originality, I would certainly use them, even if expensive.

My car guy sells me my car and is very much interested in having me do the service there; why not watches?

Omega is certainly interested in doing the servicing on all these watches, but only on their own terms.

It was stated over and over that when the "new" 321 came into being that this would mean parts would be available to those with parts accounts - I'm still waiting but the only parts that are available now, are the same parts that were available for years before the new 321 came along. But there have been changes - here is what Omega has done with access to 321 parts...bear with me as it takes a bit of explaining...

Omega will often use parts from a previous movement when designing a new movement, so when the 861 came along, many of the parts used in this movement are in fact the same parts used in the Cal. 321. One in particular is the third wheel, and this is the most common train wheel I replace in 321's, 861's, and 1861's.

Like most parts used in modern watches, these train wheels are not expensive - for example the third wheel in the new 3861 is $35, and the third wheel used in the 321/861/1861 was the same cheap price. But then 2019 rolled around and the "new" 321 was announced, officially known as the 321B. For a while nothing changed, but then again without warning (as is usually the case) the old third wheel was replaced this year by a "new" third wheel. Here they are side by side:



These two wheels are identical in every way, except one - the packaging:



As you can see, the "old" part number of 72203201240, was replaced with a new longer part number of 7220321B30025. Again remember that this is the exact same part - no physical difference between them that I can see, just a new package, and a new price. So instead of $35, this is now $170. That is not a typo - this wheel is now 4.86 times what it cost just a couple of months ago, and this change happened overnight without any warning.

There are many 321's that are expensive enough that this will have no effect whatsoever on servicing decisions, but this also affects all other movements that use this specific part, and there are 29 different movements listed that use this. 2 register chronographs, 3 register chronographs, Flightmaster movements, etc.

So now the cost of a service with someone other than Omega, is going to go up to cover the cost of this wheel, which again wears out more than any other. Omega's prices for service of course did not go up because of this change, so they have immediately put people like me and your favourite local watchmaker under more pricing pressure. The same goes with the insane jump in acrylic crystal prices that happened last year, which were of the same sort of magnitude - crystals are now $150 each, when 10 years ago they were $25, and just ~2 years ago they were only $35.

Omega is slowly making it less possible for watchmakers to compete, and all but the most valuable watches will likely end up going to them, because parts are just far too expensive.

So the first thing I did when I found this out was try to find and buy every third wheel on the open market I could, because even if I had to pay $75 for one, it will still be cheaper than buying from Omega directly. When those dried up, I decided to spend $35 on a 3861 third wheel just in case it could be used:



It can't (different tooth counts) but at least one positive thing came out of it - they beefed up the pivot that typically wears out on this wheel:



The old 321/861/1861 third wheel on the left, and the 3861 on the right with a much larger diameter upper pivot.

As I've said before, people don't understand what's going on behind the scenes, and it's not going to be good for vintage watch collectors...

Cheers, Al
 
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The worst part is that people are also apparently buying them! Saw a jaw dropping ending price on eBay for a very mediocre Seawolf with 40+ bidders last week. If I could get that much for mine I would sell them all!
Mine must of been missed by those buyers! Only one bid at the starting price with a rare bracelet and 6 endlinks. I would of expected a fair bit more, so from my perspective prices possibly are softening a bit.
::facepalm1::
 
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Mine must of been missed by those buyers! Only one bid at the starting price with a rare bracelet and 6 endlinks. I would of expected a fair bit more, so from my perspective prices possibly are softening a bit.
::facepalm1::
Yes, maybe I should be a bit more precise. When I talked about the price increase in the last couple of years I was mainly talking about the eur 500 to 2k range watches. I dont know the speedy market. Although it's good to see the prices were stabilizing for the mediocre ones. That market was crazy and seemed like a good old bubble.
 
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Yes, maybe I should be a bit more precise. When I talked about the price increase in the last couple of years I was mainly talking about the eur 500 to 2k range watches. I dont know the speedy market. Although it's good to see the prices were stabilizing for the mediocre ones. That market was crazy and seemed like a good old bubble.

Overall I'm seeing the same thing. Nice examples in this entry-level/mid-tier range are in more demand. I guess it makes sense for new collectors, since it can be intimidating to jump into the deep end. They probably don't initially realize that service/repair costs are going to eat them up in this price range.

At a more granular level, it's a bit arbitrary from my perspective. A particular vintage watch or brand gets hot and prices start to rise. Others are stagnant. Very often the brands that get hot don't seem to have anything interesting about them ... just a name on a dial. Maybe it's a Reddit phenomenon like Gamestop, etc. I don't know.
 
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Here’s a perspective from one of my deep-pocketed patients:

“My wife and I bought a fraction of the luxury goods we bought in 2019 compared to 2020. Why? Less socializing. It’s fun to share beautiful objects with others. It’s inspiring, and creates passion and energy, and this was just flat during Covid.”

So, that’s one person’s perspective, and it might be a hopeful sign for vintage watches: maybe when life starts to resemble normal again, and people socialize in person more, and resume group activities that reflect a commonality of interest, the prices and enthusiasm will creep back up.
Edited:
 
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“Vintage is dead”
Been hearing the same thing for 35 years.
It might eventually come true I suppose.
But not soon.
“Pre owned/grey market” is a different matter.

Show me the way to an excellent $3500 flightmaster if Vintage is dead (no Seikos 😁)
 
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Definitely feeling and hearing about the weakness of the vintage market from collector peers. Neo-vintage is the new “hot market” and many are moving away from vintage because of disappointing experiences. I get it. The good news and what is most exciting is the fact that unavailability and high prices are drawing collectors, particularly newer ones to brands they might have never considered otherwise, could they afford modern or vintage luxury timepieces and that… is cool.
 
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vintage is never dead

people confused the old preowned watches with vintage

there is a good number of unfortunate people with limited knowledge who bought the crappy old preowned watches that are worth nothing

those are not vintage watches and their price should eventually go to near zero
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@M'Bob Your post has sparked an interesting debate and a lot of interest. You use activity here on OF as evidence that perhaps interest and enthusiasm for vintage is waning. I hope OF members won't take this as a criticism - but perhaps there's a certain forum fatigue - there are some fantastic enthusiasts here happy to share their knowledge -but you dont have to be on here for long to get a little jaded by the constant requests for basic information from new members. Some people use this forum as an extension of Google - 'please can you verify this watch/give me certainty its the real thing' etc. I'm a relatively new member but you do start to glaze over at the constant flow of these sort of questions. Meanwhile, long term members are probably much more selective about what interests them as they have accrued years of knowledge - and are perhaps less interested in participating in some of the threads, many of which have been discussed before.

You say many people have shied away from spending money on needless luxuries like watches during the pandemic. But anecdotally, many vintage watch dealers (and auction houses) seem to have prospered during the pandemic, despite their initial fears. Millions of people have been stuck at home, and those who have been fortunate enough to have stable employment have had money to burn they would spend on commuting, holidays etc.
Based on this, there is growing interest in vintage and new entrants to the hobby, encompassing everything from Enicar to Seiko.
I don't think you can compare this to the current craze for certain steel sports watches, or limited edition Speedmasters - that crowd in my experience are very different, and even seem to have an aversion to vintage.
Edited:
 
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@M'Bob Your post has sparked an interesting debate and a lot of interest. You use activity here on OF as evidence that perhaps interest and enthusiasm for vintage is waning. I hope OF members won't take this as a criticism - but perhaps there's a certain forum fatigue - there are some fantastic enthusiasts here happy to share their knowledge -but you dont have to be on here for long to get a little jaded by the constant requests for basic information from new members. Some people use this forum as an extension of Google - 'please can you verify this watch/give me certainty its the real thing' etc. I'm a relatively new member but you do start to glaze over at the constant flow of these sort of questions. Meanwhile, long term members are probably much more selective about what interests them as they have accrued years of knowledge - and are perhaps less interested in participating in some of the threads, many of which have been discussed before.

You say many people have shied away from spending money on needless luxuries like watches during the pandemic. But anecdotally, many vintage watch dealers (and auction houses) seem to have prospered during the pandemic, despite their initial fears. Millions of people have been stuck at home, and those who have been fortunate enough to have stable employment have had money to burn they would spend on commuting, holidays etc.
Based on this, there is growing interest in vintage and new entrants to the hobby, encompassing everything from Enicar to Seiko.
I don't think you can compare this to the current craze for certain steel sports watches, or limited edition Speedmasters - that crowd in my experience are very different, and even seem to have an aversion to vintage.

Interesting insights, which are appreciated.

I, for one, do not tire of the repetitive newb questions, and I would wonder if that would be enough to jade old-timers like me. My observation is simply that the major forum participants who used to generate a lot of enthusiasm seem to be here less often.

Yes, you are correct: people stuck at home theoretically would have more time to devote to hobbies, and while a small percentage of people have been economically insulted, many lawyers, doctors, etc. have noticed an income dip.

I hope you are correct, though, and I am wrong.