Musings on the strength of the vintage watch market, e.g., Speedmasters…

M'Bob · Oct 30, 2021

I have no data to support any of my opinions, and I’m sure that others who will chime in here do. They may be dealers or other niche watch-collecting experts.

I can only speak from 30 years of active collecting, and despite the fact that higher-end pieces have in the past, and will continue to command strong prices, I have to be honest when I say that it appears that vintage watch collecting is in the doldrums.

Now, I have for sure noticed this coincided with the Covid pandemic. Less disposable income? More generalized fear and anxiety? A reshifting of values? Will there be a huge bump in the market if this thing ever clears, as a celebratory symbol, i.e, I made it through, and deserve a perk?

Is the Apple Watch partly to blame? I see it on the wrists of more and more folks who could afford a nice mechanical timepiece.

Some of the frequent posters on this forum have gone, or post much less often. And the enthusiasm level, even when a nice Speedmaster appears for discussion, is palpably muted, and responses are notably subdued.

As I intimated, I have no answers and this is just my observation, and thus would enjoy your personal opinions and theories on the issue.

dsio · Oct 30, 2021

There’s definitely an asset bubble and it’s hurting everything from cars to watches to property and I think we do have a relatively large correction coming that will hit some models more than others.

The fact that the three generations of Silver Snoopy modern Speedmaster are probably worth a combined $200 million to quarter billion depending on how many of the latest gen are around is rather concerning in and of itself.

M'Bob · Oct 30, 2021

dsio
There’s definitely an asset bubble and it’s hurting everything from cars to watches to property and I think we do have a relatively large correction coming that will hit some models more than others.

The fact that the three generations of Silver Snoopy modern Speedmaster are probably worth a combined $200 million to quarter billion depending on how many of the latest gen are around is rather concerning in and of itself.

Speaking of data, you might be a perfect person to ask: are my observations born out by your statistics over the psst year and a half showing comparatively fewer postings in the various fora compared to the time prior?

dsio · Oct 30, 2021

M'Bob
Speaking of data, you might be a perfect person to ask: are my observations born out by your statistics over the psst year and a half showing comparatively fewer postings in the various fora compared to the time prior?

There’s a slight dip for sure beyond the normal seasonal curve, its a decrease in Google searches though rather than direct visitors so it tends to mean fewer people researching and getting into watches which kind of tracks given people are being priced out.

There are still some really great value omegas to buy it’s just the hype ones that are overcooked right now, Geneves, Seamasters, Devilles, C-cases etc are still highly undervalued while pie pans, 321s, Snoopys etc are overvalued. The number of good watches in those hot references is very low too as people are stockpiling and holding them.

When a correction does come I think we will see a feeding frenzy for sure.

Fish70 · Oct 30, 2021

Vintage watches prices seem to still be very high to me but I am looking for an excellent Flightmaster for less than 3.5K That was totally doable 3 or 4 years ago.

paddymoran · Oct 30, 2021

Fish70
Vintage watches prices seem to still be very high to me but I am looking for an excellent Flightmaster for less than 3.5K That was totally doable 3 or 4 years ago.

I’m pretty sure that it can be done by buying the right one second hand and having it serviced. Crystal can be replaced relatively cheaply and case will come up really well with a very light polish by the right person.

paddymoran · Oct 30, 2021

dsio
There are still some really great value omegas to buy it’s just the hype ones that are overcooked right now, Geneves, Seamasters, Devilles, C-cases etc are still highly undervalued while pie pans, 321s, Snoopys etc are overvalued. The number of good watches in those hot references is very low too as people are stockpiling and holding them.

Definitely a case of people stockpiling but the issue is that most purchases are influenced by what’s hot. People don’t generally buy models that don’t generate much interest. Take a look at all the omega Facebook groups and the number of posts asking “is x or y a good investment”.

Unfortunately we don’t tend to simply buy what we like but I think that’s logical as watches and collecting us can be a very expensive interest - most of us can’t justify tying up lots of money in watches that we like - if you have many watches it would be imprudent not to consider their resale value.

Fish70 · Oct 30, 2021

paddymoran
I’m pretty sure that it can be done by buying the right one second hand and having it serviced. Crystal can be replaced relatively cheaply and case will come up really well with a very light polish by the right person.

Finding the right one at that price has been the trick! Prices on the ones I've seen in the past year have no relation to the condition of the watch. Pricing seems to be done via the dartboard method!

paddymoran · Oct 30, 2021

Fish70
Finding the right one at that price has been the trick! Prices on the ones I've seen in the past year have no relation to the condition of the watch. Pricing seems to be done via the dartboard method!

If you look at sold items on eBay (worldwide search) they are there. I’ve one to sell so I was looking earlier to get a sense of prices. I’d narrow the search to auctions and it’s hard to gauge prices when looking at “accepts offers” as the price isn’t disclosed.

Fish70 · Oct 30, 2021

I have been looking (took me 15 years to find the right Speedmaster Automatic MK 4.5) on eBay, watch recon, and Chrono 24. I have offered a few Japanese sellers with decent examples 3.5K with no takers. Anything on eBay listed since January for less than $4000 is garbage.

joeshoup · Oct 30, 2021

My subjective impression is that supply is lower than it was when I got into collecting 3.5 years ago, and that most of the supply is "curated", with few sellers who are not trying to achieve dealer prices, especially for the desirable models. Combined with economic uncertainty, it puts a damper on the casual hobbyist.

There is however still a huge demand for vintage watches in the sub-$1000 range, and decently priced pieces move quickly. There're just not that many of them for sale.

Fish70 · Oct 30, 2021

I have caught the collector bug for a few different things over the years and usually the golden age was 10 years before I had the money to start collecting that particular thing 😁

Wlcutter · Oct 30, 2021

I'm neither expert nor specialist so obv this is all anecdotal as well. The points @dsio made feel, to me, real salient—this idea that there are examples of vintage watches receiving disproportionate focus and a whole swath of overlooked/underloved stuff. A decade ago, there seemed to me to be a broader interest in vintage generally, and the community felt fundamentally exploratory and interested. Also a decade ago, there were collectors who understood that the market would correct—they'd seen bubbleback rolexes rise+fall, had seen pocketwatches rise and fall—and so seeemed less financially motivated by their watches.

Over the last few years there seems to me to have been a calcification—if you get into watches, there's an understood series of watches A Real Collector Should Have, a very understood Watch Collection that people should aspire to: a 321 Speedy, a Sub, maybe a Daytona, a GMT, a 2852, etc. Depending on funds, maybe also a Movado M95 or a Heuer (has to be a V72 Carrera or Autavia, tho).

I don't mean to sound bitter or cynical, and maybe I was naive from the start. It seemed reasonable, 5 years ago, that anyone could enjoy vintage watches without needing to aspire to The One True Watch Collection. I don't even think there's any one thing that's engendered these conditions—Hodinkee's popularity and traffic has made them a pretty critical node or funnel in all this info, and IG has been devastating in terms of fostering variety (put up a hashtagged Rolex 6263 and see what happens vs most Speedmasters). But it's not just one thing; it's a symphonic thing, at least in my eyes.

To OP's original question: yes, it feels doldrummy in vintage watches. My sense is it's because the field's narrowed too much. Hopefully, sometime soon, someone will realize interesting watches are excellent in-and-of themselves, even if one doesn't net quite the same number of likes or whatever as one might while wearing a more popular, better known watch.

CalLeach · Oct 30, 2021

Wlcutter
I'm neither expert nor specialist so obv this is all anecdotal as well. The points @dsio made feel, to me, real salient—this idea that there are examples of vintage watches receiving disproportionate focus and a whole swath of overlooked/underloved stuff. A decade ago, there seemed to me to be a broader interest in vintage generally, and the community felt fundamentally exploratory and interested. Also a decade ago, there were collectors who understood that the market would correct—they'd seen bubbleback rolexes rise+fall, had seen pocketwatches rise and fall—and so seeemed less financially motivated by their watches.

Over the last few years there seems to me to have been a calcification—if you get into watches, there's an understood series of watches A Real Collector Should Have, a very understood Watch Collection that people should aspire to: a 321 Speedy, a Sub, maybe a Daytona, a GMT, a 2852, etc. Depending on funds, maybe also a Movado M95 or a Heuer (has to be a V72 Carrera or Autavia, tho).

I don't mean to sound bitter or cynical, and maybe I was naive from the start. It seemed reasonable, 5 years ago, that anyone could enjoy vintage watches without needing to aspire to The One True Watch Collection. I don't even think there's any one thing that's engendered these conditions—Hodinkee's popularity and traffic has made them a pretty critical node or funnel in all this info, and IG has been devastating in terms of fostering variety (put up a hashtagged Rolex 6263 and see what happens vs most Speedmasters). But it's not just one thing; it's a symphonic thing, at least in my eyes.

To OP's original question: yes, it feels doldrummy in vintage watches. My sense is it's because the field's narrowed too much. Hopefully, sometime soon, someone will realize interesting watches are excellent in-and-of themselves, even if one doesn't net quite the same number of likes or whatever as one might while wearing a more popular, better known watch.

It seems to me to be a similar curve to all things “collectible”. I used to buy a lot of mid century furniture because I loved the design and functionality of it. All of a sudden you could no longer find pieces readily available…….then you would see a collector selling off items in dribs and drabs at very high prices. I can not argue with this format, if you are ahead of the curve and stockpile something who is anyone to tell you what price you should sell at. However having a large amount of “stock” held by a few will always distort prices.

cvalue13 · Oct 30, 2021

CalLeach
I used to buy a lot of mid century furniture because I loved the design and functionality of it. All of a sudden you could no longer find pieces readily available…

I feel lucky to have collected almost all the 1970’s Italian modern I could house by 3-4 years ago; since then, prices have gone bananas.

STANDY · Oct 30, 2021

I have watched prices climb each year and participation climb even more exponentially. With peaks and troughs from year to year. The peak of the start of the Covid lockdown is now the trough of said peak.

Albeit the percentage of new to vintage collectors has skewed more to new over the last 3-4 years.

Oddly a new Speedmaster from Omega was $4300 AUD in 2013
A new Speedmaster from Omega today is about $8000+ AUD

I do find there is a new collector of vintage watches regularly and have seen and witnessed it coming from Iwatch converts.

Yes correction is coming but has been for many years and that’s the scary thing for me is the higher the rise the higher the fall.

signed
Stockpile STANDY

JwRosenthal · Oct 30, 2021

I think many new comers to this site start by looking around for the big hitters based on internet searches or just seeking information based on something that caught their eye. I don’t know the numbers our mods see in terms of actual statistics, but I can say I have met and chatted privately with many new members who came looking to either sell or buy a single watch and end up becoming avid collectors and regular contributors (it’s addictive as we all know).
I think any time you see a surge in interest in a hobby, there will be the initial wave and the critters left in the pools when the tide rolls out are the ones that are in it for the long haul.
I have no doubt there will be a market correction, in fact I think we are already seeing it with the best examples still surging and the rest slowly coming back down to earth (Rolex is its own hype bubble, we can’t look at that as part of the market as it will blow the bell curve). I don’t think we will ever see prices back to where they were 5 years ago, but I can hope that some sanity will be restored to mediocre examples.
One thing that is a blessing (and curse for some of us) is the recognition of less prestigious brands that had been long overdue. As many have been priced out of the premium collectibles, new and modestly incomed collectors (myself included in the later) have found joy downstream. There is something for everyone on this hobby, but you need to be invested.

Caliber561 · Oct 30, 2021

By all means, keep Omegas unrecognized and unappreciated. I like being able to pick Centenaries up for only $1k. ::stirthepot::

Evitzee · Oct 30, 2021

When I first started collecting in the early 80's I had a discussion with a couple of long term sales agents at a store in Zurich that sold all the top brands; AP, PP, VC, and including middle brands like Omega. The store management had thought internally that once a simple, manual wind gold Patek Philippe passed the CHF 2,000 mark (about US$1,000 at the time) the market would not accept it and buyers would push back. Never assume that prices are too high or unsustainable, they have been saying that about watches ever since I started collecting. It has its ups and downs, and corrections, but the long term direction is always up. As hundreds of millions of people become wealthier as their economies develop the market will expand. Some brands get hot, then cool, but in general the price trend is up.

stonestone · Oct 30, 2021

M'Bob
I have no data to support any of my opinions, and I’m sure that others who will chime in here do. They may be dealers or other niche watch-collecting experts.

I can only speak from 30 years of active collecting, and despite the fact that higher-end pieces have in the past, and will continue to command strong prices, I have to be honest when I say that it appears that vintage watch collecting is in the doldrums.

Now, I have for sure noticed this coincided with the Covid pandemic. Less disposable income? More generalized fear and anxiety? A reshifting of values? Will there be a huge bump in the market if this thing ever clears, as a celebratory symbol, i.e, I made it through, and deserve a perk?

Is the Apple Watch partly to blame? I see it on the wrists of more and more folks who could afford a nice mechanical timepiece.

Some of the frequent posters on this forum have gone, or post much less often. And the enthusiasm level, even when a nice Speedmaster appears for discussion, is palpably muted, and responses are notably subdued.

As I intimated, I have no answers and this is just my observation, and thus would enjoy your personal opinions and theories on the issue.

In a recent Hodinkee podcast Ben Clymer talked very matter of factly about weakness in the vintage watch market, and that would of course explain H's big push into the "pre-owned" / gray market with its purchase of Crown & Caliber. Money is moving in ever greater volume to those items primed by IG to be most desirable and collectible, which are new and shiny. Of course Rolex is an outlier, and super-sought after vintage pieces are still commanding crazy prices, but there does seem to be a market shift and vintage anything-other-than-the big-names is attracting less and less attention.

Musings on the strength of the vintage watch market, e.g., Speedmasters…

M'Bob

dsio

M'Bob

dsio

Fish70

paddymoran

paddymoran

Fish70

paddymoran

Fish70

joeshoup

Fish70

Wlcutter

CalLeach

cvalue13

STANDY

JwRosenthal

Caliber561

Evitzee

stonestone

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