The SS shortage is really starting to hurt the ADs

 

New sales teams coming to replace the shady AD’s

 

market for Ceramic daytona definitely getting softer as black ones being offered at 23k or less compared to 1 2 months back at 25k

 

One can hope. I am certainly not going to feed into it and pay outrageous prices. I'll gladly take my money to other brands until the Rolex SS shortage is over.

 

I’m jealous you can lay down a deposit.

I’d be glad to throw down a paid in full deposit for a ceramic bezel if 2 years later I got a call.

Never thought I’d like a modern Rolex watch but that darn watch just speaks to me.

I suppose you just like what you like.

Will keep hunting to find at least a place in line while my watch friends probably scoff at the silliness of all the craze.

In the meanwhile I’ve got my only Rolex in the watchbox to enjoy that fortunately had no wait lists and is just plain old.




I see the reason for the draw now for the two most desirable models.

1) the ceramic bezel and fit/finish of the 116500LN gives an awesome mix of sporty and dressy.

2) the super jubilee on the currently offered GMTs in steel is so damn sexy. That and the cerachrom bezel together make it really hard not to look at.

I can’t say I feel the same way about the tried and true Explorer, Milgauss, and Submariner.

 

That is a beautiful watch! I am currently in Malta and the situation with SS sport watches is the same here. Sales guy was super nice and said they do have a wait list (>1 year) for GMT and submariner's. He said occasionally they will get one or two more than their normal allotment and they put them in the window to "make people happy that are not on the list" and the watches sell within 30-60 minutes. Sales guy seemed a bit frustrated by the whole process. If they make commission on sales it has to be hurting their compensation!

 

This is a pretty small sample size but I’ve been to two ADs in Hong Kong, three ADs in the UK, and three ADs in Italy in the past year and haven’t seen any Rolex SS models.

 

Rolex has one of, if not the most valuable, goodwill in brand value of all luxury goods. It's value retention is worth its weight in gold, actually probably better. I disagree the Rolex "bubble" is similar to other asset bubbles mostly because the value retention of Rolex as an asset class has persisted over decades of economic cycles. Their strategy of controlling supply and pricing is remarkable, as annoying as it is to the consumer.

 

4 years ago SS models were readily available minus maybe the Daytona. Second hand market BLNRs were going for around 8-8.5k and SS subs were below that.

Now SS date subcs are going for 10-11K and oyster BLNRs are 14k. SS date subcs have jumped 2k in the last year alone.

I'm not sure I agree with the assertion that the value retention of a Rolex has persisted over decades.

 

Well, lets just look at the real value in USD of a no-date sub since 1970. I admit these are rather anecdotal estimates resulting from a quick Google search, but adjusted for inflation, a non-date sub at retail price has increased at a healthy rate. I'm sure you can attest to the second hand market being even more robust, with most SS models selling at a premium over retail. And this is for the most basic non-date sub, the numbers are much stronger for GMT, vintage models, trendy models (Daytona) etc.

Year Price Infl Adj Real USD
1970 $189 6.19 $1,170

1990 $1,650 1.88 $3,094

2000 $3,800 1.39 $5,296

2010 $7,500 1.15 $8,637

2019 $8,550 1.00 $8,550

 

Last year in London, I managed to get a new black bezel GMT, by asking what do I have to do to get one. I ended up having to buy a JLC Reverso in order to be able to buy the GMT. While I was in the shop a local asked for one. They told him in West London and Central London it will take 3 years. Meanwhile I was looking at the one in my bad feeling very lucky. Later on the trip checked out some places in Vienna nothing there. Also checked out some shops in Geneva nothing there either.

I checked out some ADs in Mexico City last month. They have nothing there either. One shop did have a white Dial Explorer II.

My friend checked some shops in London and Geneva for me this year and of course nothing there. :-(

 

On a shopping trip last weekend in London I popped into 4 Rolex AD's, not a single steel sports model and I wasn't surprised. Ladies DateJust's a plenty.

 

Rolex as an independent company have managed supply and demand well over the years which buyers know and which means that when someone has a Rolex they are more likely to keep it for value appreciation. If that is ever broken then it may unwind but until then ... If any one wants to join a 'waiting list' for my one then they'll be waiting a lot longer than 3 years

 

withholding watches to create artificial inflation will blow up the minute rolex decides to make more "said watches" available.

times might be good now, but chit could easily get ugly. the premiums for some models are lol funny for watches that aren't even LE.

 

The Rolex “shortage” for me has been a good thing, in that it’s forced me to broaden my watch horizons. I wanted a Daytona and a Batman but ended with a Speedmaster and a couple Breitlings from the 60s—a 165.024 is next on my acquisition list.

 

In a dialectic relation, everything affects everything, Rolex and the ´others´… This has result in a more creative Omega attitude, ending IMO with better watches, and for sure a step forward in aesthetics against Rolex…so at the end of the road, we Omega FANS, has have some benefits of the Rolex hype

 

the 806 and their other variants are underpriced imo. they should be more expensive than 4/5k.

 

Good and correct ones are more then that. A lot of mediocre examples or mid matched pieces out there.

But yup.

 

The overwhelming consensus at Rolex Forums is that Rolex is NOT restricting supply. The so-called shortage is the result of (a) a market bubble and (b) gray dealers. PLEASE read the thread below in its entirety to understand this. There are dozens of threads at TRF that say exactly the same thing.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=692868

 

I would agree, people will pay good money for correct and well maintained Navitimers. I have three vintage Breitling; the 69 Chrono-matic has never been worn, the 61 and 71 Navis are in all original and impeccable condition.

The problem is that very good examples are very few and far between.