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I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

  1. Evitzee Mar 21, 2020

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    You can dream until the cows come home, but you aren't going to see discounts on sports models. And Rolex isn't even producing any watches at the moment. I see no rationale for your prediction.
     
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  2. TechFounder Mar 21, 2020

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    You do realize that there are literally millions of sports models floating out there? When the economy tanks and next to no one is interested in buying expensive luxury goods, and those who are hoarding it right now need cash, what do you think will happen? You can already see price declines just one week into the shutdown in the U.S. Again, just extrapolate - one month from now, two months, six months. Those secondary dealers are the first to react by reducing prices. Then the hoarders who mistakenly thought that hoarding Rolex watches is a no brainer in "investing" their funds, well, they're in for a rude awakening. They will also start to dump their watches when they see prices declines or they need funds due to the depressed economy. It's a self reinforcing cycle really. This pattern has repeated over and over in different bubble markets throughout history.
     
    Edited Mar 21, 2020
  3. Dan S Mar 21, 2020

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    I'm not sure I understand the claim you are trying to make. In the first quote above you seem to be suggesting that Rolex itself will offer discounts. Based on historical precedent, I think this is incredibly unlikely, and I believe that @Evitzee was responding to this. But then in your response to him, you presented a moving target, and seemed to refer to flippers, which is a different story entirely.

    As a manufacturer, Rolex has always held the line on discounts, rain or shine, and I really doubt that they will change this policy. ADs are strongly discouraged from offering discounts, but they have quietly done so at some times in the past, but generally not for the most desirable models; still it's a possibility that it might happen in isolate instances. If you're talking about flippers, then absolutely, you may start to see some NIB pieces being sold below MSRP by resellers if the situation becomes dire enough.
     
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  4. TechFounder Mar 21, 2020

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    Yes, I wasn't talking about Rolex. Of course Rolex is going to hold firm on their MSRP. But, that doesn't mean that ADs or others will. ADs use to offer discounts on Rolex watches. Gray market dealers will as well. The used market will see a lot of supply and have the biggest discounts.
     
    Edited Mar 21, 2020
  5. scapa Mar 21, 2020

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    I've been on "the list" for an OP39 for months and months now. Not a big Rolex fan but I do like that model and figured it was time to have one in the collection again, and a significant birthday was the occasion to make it happen.

    Well, the occasion has come and gone, and when I checked in most recently I was given a timeline of "two weeks to six months," so I decided to look elsewhere -- not that difficult in the grand scheme. I guess I can try again in the next, oh, two weeks to 10 years, but not sure I will, especially now that I've owned and become quickly attached to Grand Seiko. It will be interesting to see whether the pandemic has any long-term effect on the market for Rolex -- I'd expect other brands to suffer first and more lastingly -- but there's likely to be a noticeable dip in the GM, I guess.
     
    Edited Mar 21, 2020
  6. killer67 Mar 21, 2020

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    Like I said ADs will offer no discount below MSRP on stainless sports models now or after Covid 19 has settled. Platinum day date and PM will continue to get discounts as it did last year and the year before that. Grey market dealers that acquired a ss pepsi at 15,5 and resell for 17,1 will possibly discount their price maybe even below their acquisition cost.

    Economic laws are still in effect - there are way more people that can buy a 9K watch at full price than there are ADs offering them (recession/depression be damned). The few people I know with a deep bank account are looking for cheap stocks, discounted Porsche 930s, 993s, market value PP and Rolex, real estate, etc. They could buy 10 GMTs today if they wanted; and I suspect there many more of those people in the world.
     
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  7. TechFounder Mar 21, 2020

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    Those are the very people who like to follow the herd. They won't be buying when they see demand disappear and prices dropping. We are heading towards a recession for sure. If this shutdown lasts more than a couple of months we're heading towards depression. In 2008, Rolex watches, hell any watch, was in deep discount if you can get anyone interested in the first place. If we do hit a depression, you'll see a flood of millions of Rolex watches hitting the market as people with collections big and small trying to sell to raise money for living expenses. I won't be surprised to see used Rolex selling at 50% if that were to happen. You can already see a lot of good brands selling at those prices in the used markets now. Blancpains, for example, are selling at those prices now (obviously, not every model) if you can get anyone interested in them in the first place. I even see watches like F.P. Journe selling at 60 cents on the dollar now on fleabay. People who can afford F.P. Journe are the type of people with disposable incomes you're talking about.

    The other thing I would like to point out is that Rolex watches and other collectibles follow the great fool theory. That is, the price depends on someone more foolish to come along and pay a higher price for it. There's no inherent intrinsic value in a Rolex watch, unlike stocks or other income generating assets.
     
    Edited Mar 21, 2020
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  8. STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Mar 21, 2020

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    2008 was still early in the watch game for many. Just before the GFC even Speedmasters we’re going at under $1000 as a regular price, hey we only started here in 2012 and had a few thousand members for a couple of years. It’s the 2015 onwards when the watch game exploded

    2008 was not a bad thing for every one.
    Aussies were snapping up watches after the GFC with $1 getting $1.12 US
    Different now when $1 is lucky to get you 60 cents US
     
  9. TechFounder Mar 21, 2020

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    Sure, we may still see Asians buying as they have better control of the pandemic. But there's no doubt in my mind that a lot of supply will be coming into the market soon by those who are holding to a lot of watches here and abroad.
     
  10. STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Mar 21, 2020

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    For sure, when shit hits the fan (and it’s going to) there will be many pseudo dealers selling their stock.
    Most online dealers will act early also as not wanting to be left holding goods on the way down.
     
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  11. killer67 Mar 22, 2020

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    [QUOTE="TechFounder, post: 1468097, member: 65211"If we do hit a depression, you'll see a flood of millions of Rolex watches hitting the market as people with collections big and small trying to sell to raise money for living expenses. I won't be surprised to see used Rolex selling at 50% if that were to happen.[/QUOTE]

    I assume you are using hyperbole by saying "millions" of Rolex watches
     
  12. TechFounder Mar 24, 2020

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    Looks like it's starting...
     
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  13. hejsam Mar 24, 2020

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    10% of a ridiclous overprice?
     
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  14. Walrus Mar 24, 2020

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    An admittedly low info Rolex guy here but local f2f prices have come down quite a bit. I’m talking mostly vintage as that seems to be more common in the locals in my area. Tudors same thing. Not really planning on picking anything up but like most of us I’m always on the look. If something did pop up I’d prob post 50 pics here asking for your help but I’m not in a rush and just looking and comparing. Can’t comment at all on the newer models, don’t know prices well enough and I won’t be spending that much anyway.
     
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  15. wjgesq Apr 5, 2020

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    China supply will be dying down soon
     
  16. jhross98 Apr 8, 2020

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  17. Evitzee Apr 8, 2020

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    Quality, especially as it relates to Patek Philippe and Rolex, will always be in demand. Mark Twain nailed when he said 'reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated'. The market is not going to melt down.
     
  18. To the moon Apr 9, 2020

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    I'm happy with my collection as 80% have been purchased at retail, 5% below and well... If you really want it you'll pay a premium. I can't see any loss if you've bought well and bought right. The only price alteration will less profit or if you're dumb enough to pay double bubble for the latest release rather than wait 18-24 mths, then you deserve to be in a position of losing £2,000-£3,000 on a piece. If you paid retail for a Steel Daytona,Pepsi,Snoopy,ST1 then you'll be fine. Anyone purchasing vintage in the last 5 years will also take a hit. But it's only a loss if you have to sell, and if you have to sell this early them you couldn't afford it in the 1st place...
     
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  19. Davidt Apr 14, 2020

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    I out my name down for an Explorer 1 in December and was told it would likely be 1-2 years.

    Just had a call to say Rolex may not be manufacturing but they are still shipping stock and an E1 has just arrived and I'm next on the list.

    They're taking payments via the ADs website and I will be able to collect once restrictions are lifted.
     
  20. STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Apr 14, 2020

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    Well looks like China will bounce back while the rest of the world suffers longer economic mayhem.
    But realistically China is Datejust Territory more than SS tool watches and was never the problem with new Sub,s and Daytona,s being unobtainable in Rolex Boutiques