I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

JwRosenthal · Jan 31, 2020

cvalue13
It was a question pregnant with a degree of dubiousness, but willing to hear it out!

The key point was noting my confusion between the 'hype' vs 'popular.' If all @janice&fred intended to say was "regardless of the [GMT] hype, datejusts still sell more units" then that seems uncontroversial and obvious. But @janice&fred wrote "despite the [GMT] hype, datejusts are more popular" and I'm not sure what that means (if it doesn't simply mean they sell more units)?

Is a Honda Civic more 'popular' than an NSX, insofar as there are more Civic units sold? Surely. Does that mean that if Civics and NSX's were the same price (all in), that the Civic would continue to be more 'popular' than the NSX? I don't know, but I'm not so certain.

I get what you’re saying, but again- it’s apples to oranges- the civic and the NSX are two very different vehicles targeted at two very difffeent customers. Most customers looking for a simple and practical daily driver to carry a family of 4 aren’t going to see an NSX sitting besides the civic at the same price and say- oh, for the same money I want that!
It’s not even the same form factor, so it wouldn’t meet their needs.
I have always thought of the DJ as the ultimate accolade gift. It’s the watch you buy someone to celebrate an occasion- the sport lines like the sub and GMT are tool watches far more in line with self indulgence like the NSX- a hedonistic fulfillment (of which I am a big fan- the hedonistic fulfillment, not the NSX).
For example, if my mother were to walk into a Rolex AD (let’s say 5 years ago when dealers had plenty of stock and were eager to sell) looking to buy me a watch for my 45th birthday- she would have gone for the DJ- not for cost, but she would see the Sub & GMT as being much more of bulky sport watch and less of an elegant gift choice (she has said as much to me when she sees me wearing my GMT or my OPD- she thinks the OPD is far more elegant). This was once the target market for Rolex- the luxury gifter. Luxury gifters want it now, they want what they want and money isn’t the issue (if they are gifting a $5k watch, another $2-3k isn’t going to make them pause). It’s about the elegance and versatility the DJ offers over the other sport models...that’s why I think it’s sold far better than the others historically - it appeals to a much broader audience as an attractive piece of jewelry with great cache and and not a “sport watch” which seems more of a personal lifestyle choice.
Now that Rolex has made in near impossible for the luxury gifter to even get the product, those sales are going elsewhere -(way to go Omega)! Rolex may very much be in demand, but the current situation is hurting their reputation within the accolade purchasing niche. Perhaps it’s intentional to move away from the aspirational market (they don’t want be stuck in Monte Blanc Meisterstuck territory forever), and move further up the food chain leaving it up to Tudor to close the gap behind them, The new market Rolex seems to be courting is leagues above them- not in the same stratosphere....perhaps a little overly ambitious for Rolex and could potentially backfire.
I am curious what the agenda is and how it will unfold- hence my continued interest in the thread. I was once their customer base- I bought Rolex for gifts and myself- they were expensive, but affordable with a single paycheck or a single months salary ...that formula doesn’t work anymore for most of the their models.

scapa · Jan 31, 2020

JwRosenthal
I get what you’re saying, but again- it’s apples to oranges- the civic and the NSX are two very different vehicles targeted at two very difffeent customers. Most customers looking for a simple and practical daily driver to carry a family of 4 aren’t going to see an NSX sitting besides the civic at the same price and say- oh, for the same money I want that!
It’s not even the same form factor, so it wouldn’t meet their needs.
I have always thought of the DJ as the ultimate accolade gift. It’s the watch you buy someone to celebrate an occasion- the sport lines like the sub and GMT are tool watches far more in line with self indulgence like the NSX- a hedonistic fulfillment (of which I am a big fan- the hedonistic fulfillment, not the NSX).
For example, if my mother were to walk into a Rolex AD (let’s say 5 years ago when dealers had plenty of stock and were eager to sell) looking to buy me a watch for my 45th birthday- she would have gone for the DJ- not for cost, but she would see the Sub & GMT as being much more of bulky sport watch and less of an elegant gift choice (she has said as much to me when she sees me wearing my GMT or my OPD- she thinks the OPD is far more elegant). This was once the target market for Rolex- the luxury gifter. Luxury gifters want it now, they want what they want and money isn’t the issue (if they are gifting a $5k watch, another $2-3k isn’t going to make them pause). It’s about the elegance and versatility the DJ offers over the other sport models...that’s why I think it’s sold far better than the others historically - it appeals to a much broader audience as an attractive piece of jewelry with great cache and and not a “sport watch” which seems more of a personal lifestyle choice.
Now that Rolex has made in near impossible for the luxury gifter to even get the product, those sales are going elsewhere -(way to go Omega)! Rolex may very much be in demand, but the current situation is hurting their reputation within the accolade purchasing niche. Perhaps it’s intentional to move away from the aspirational market (they don’t want be stuck in Monte Blanc Meisterstuck territory forever), and move further up the food chain leaving it up to Tudor to close the gap behind them, The new market Rolex seems to be courting is leagues above them- not in the same stratosphere....perhaps a little overly ambitious for Rolex and could potentially backfire.
I am curious what the agenda is and how it will unfold- hence my continued interest in the thread. I was once their customer base- I bought Rolex for gifts and myself- they were expensive, but affordable with a single paycheck or a single months salary ...that formula doesn’t work anymore for most of the their models.

Very interesting analysis. I do wonder about who fills this large gap in the market. I can't see it being Tudor, although I own one and enjoy quite a few of their watches, because of their focus on the tool-ier end, and reduced name recognition in spite of cheesily-sloganed ad campaigns and slew of brand ambassadors. And, given the pace of Omega's price increases, how long is it before they too have left the 5k tier behind?

I've luxury-gifted watches twice in the past 2 years -- one was a Sinn, the other a Longines. Both recipients were happy with their gifts and neither seemed bothered by not getting a Rolex (and certainly not bothered at all about not getting an Omega). In fact, one of the two expressly rejected Rolex, because she wanted a watch she could wear anytime and everywhere without fear of being mugged or thought the worse of (rational or not). I see a brand like Longines better placed than some others to capitalize on this opportunity, and I wonder whether Omega can keep moving upwards without losing bread-and-butter sales. I also confess to feeling a bit sad about what this will mean to the aficionados of years from now, for whom an Omega will be a long way off and a Rolex all but impossible.

But then, obsessions are obsessions, and people find ways to pay for them.

cvalue13 · Jan 31, 2020

JwRosenthal
it’s apples to oranges- the civic and the NSX are two very different vehicles targeted at two very difffeent customers. Most customers looking for a simple and practical daily driver to carry a family of 4 aren’t going to see an NSX sitting besides the civic at the same price and say- oh, for the same money I want that!

even if I didn’t pour over finding the most unassailable example to use in the hypothetical, spirit of the hypo was this: if all (A) Daytonas/GMTs/Subs/Dwellers sell [X] units/yr, and all (B) datejusts sell [X]x2 per year, but those two buckets (A) and (B) were made equal in all accessibility (ie, literal availability, price, maintenance costs, etc.), I just don’t have your confidence that datejusts would continue to outsell at anything like [X]x2.

I’ll grant you the notion that datejusts are partially (but materially?) fueled by being “gift” watches, and I’ll even offer you in addition that the Chinese/Asian markets appear to materially favor datejusts and the like to the tool watches.

Still, past both of our anecdotal biases, the fact that the ebay report says more average datejusts are sold than average tool watches doesn’t any much interesting to me, right off

wjgesq · Feb 1, 2020

Archer
As watchmakers, from a purely technical perspective, Rolex and Omega cannot hold a candle to AP.

Of late, AP has become "The Royal Oak Company" but in the past they have been much more than that. If you are "not Impressed" then you probably need to dig a little deeper into what AP have made in the past.

I don't partocularly appreciate the RO or a lot of what they make, but they have my respect as a watchmaker - much more than Rolex who purchased most of their "accomplishments" over the decades.

Somewhere out there I’ve heard it said that, in reference to Rolex vs AP, “if you not concerned about accuracy or durability, AP is an acceptable alternative to Rolex”.

Both, oddly enough, matter to me.

Dan S · Feb 1, 2020

OK, this just shocked me. I went to the Rolex site, and found the following prices. I am obviously clueless about the relative prices of modern sport and classic models. Have they always been the same, or is this a recent occurrence?

Screen Shot 2020-02-01 at 3.29.04 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-01 at 3.28.35 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-01 at 3.34.13 PM.png

MTROIS · Feb 1, 2020

Dan S
OK, this just shocked me. I went to the Rolex site, and found the following prices.

Dan, I am not following the Rolex prices daily... so what shocked you? Recent price increase? 😕

Dan S · Feb 1, 2020

MTROIS
Dan, I am not following the Rolex prices daily... so what shocked you? Recent price increase? 😕

It shocked me to learn that the DJ is the same price as the Sub. I had always considered the DJ a lower-priced option.

Edit: I read a little deeper and learned that the DJ appears to have the next-generation movement. Maybe that explains it?

jhross98 · Feb 1, 2020

This thread is soooooooo long with no enough pics

If you forced me to wear one watch forever this is it

MTROIS · Feb 1, 2020

jhross98
This thread is soooooooo long with no enough pics

If you forced me to wear one watch forever this is it

Ok, I will play:
This one is from late 2014, a time when they were still (relatively) readily available!! I remember sitting in one of the Bücherer boutiques and having the choice between two BLNRs, two Submariners, Explorers (regular and 2), etc. (No SS Daytona though).

How times have indeed changed!

In any case, my motto is: Don't feed the "flippers"!!

MTROIS · Feb 1, 2020

Dan S
It shocked me to learn that the DJ is the same price as the Sub. I had always considered the DJ a lower-priced option.

Edit: I read a little deeper and learned that the DJ appears to have the next-generation movement. Maybe that explains it?

Yes Dan, each time the 32xx series of movement is rolled out in a model, the prices are adjusted accordingly (of course, higher!).
I also thought that the bezel of the DJ was WG, so I took it for granted that they were in the same ballpark $$$ (and the fact that fluted bezel rolexes are big sellers across the board...).

Dan S · Feb 1, 2020

MTROIS
Yes Dan, each time the 32xx series of movement is rolled out in a model, the prices are adjusted accordingly (of course, higher!).
I also thought that the bezel of the DJ was WG, so I took it for granted that they were in the same ballpark $$$ (and the fact that fluted bezel rolexes are big sellers across the board...).

It seems to be a combination of both factors, now that you mention it. The 36mm DJ with the smooth steel bezel is about $7k. So $1,500 less than the fluted gold bezel version, which is a lot of money for a bezel. However, that prices is still approaching the price of the no-date Sub, which is larger, more waterproof, and has the rotating bezel technology. And the smooth-bezel DJ is much more expensive than the OP ($5400), which has the older movement. So I think that the 3200-series movement is also a contribution. I guess the Submariner prices will go up by a couple thousand $$ when they change the movement.

NickC · Feb 3, 2020

NickC
A couple of recent conversations with friends has led to the following. The first lives in Europe. Bought his first ever Rolex from the local AD in Summer last year - a bi metal Sub for full rrp. Over Christmas put his name down for a Pepsi and was told he would have it in the first half of this year.

Second friend lives in PA. Has bought one or two watches a year from his local AD for the past few years. Mainly Rolex but some others as well. At beginning of December, inquired about a white gold Daytona. He collected it two weeks ago. He got it for rrp and they deducted the sales tax.

Clearly the stock is out there, if you're a good customer.

I have an update on this. My friend in Europe popped in to his AD today to put some more money down on his GMT. Ended up chatting to one of the company directors rather than the salesman he had been dealing with. Director tells him that he thinks the salesman has over promised on the GMT and that he's unlikely to get one this year. There are 30 names on the wait list and they are only allocated 4 watches this year . There are 4 directors of the business and they each get to choose one buyer. He was told that if he bought more from them, he'd obviously be in with a better chance this year. In his message to me "I think I might just give up with this Rolex bollocks"

wjgesq · Feb 3, 2020

cvalue13
careful badmouthing ADs around here, the AD-worshiping among us will get sensitive

Hell, raising a few DSW concerns got me barred from the Rolex forum. And I was being nice.

funkright · Feb 3, 2020

Given the massive Aussie fraud being detailed on various watch sites across the net I'm thinking it may be wise to bow out of the Rolex pool for a bit. One never knows what you're getting these days, unless it's coming directly from an AD and getting the next Rolex I want from an AD is looking like a more difficult mountain to climb daily. And I should not have to beg or cajole someone to take my money for a mass produced consumer good..

NickC
"I think I might just give up with this Rolex bollocks"

JwRosenthal · Feb 3, 2020

funkright
And I should not have to beg or cajole someone to take my money for a mass produced consumer good..

wjgesq · Feb 4, 2020

JwRosenthal

Works for Ferrari too.

greyfox422 · Feb 4, 2020

funkright
And I should not have to beg or cajole someone to take my money for a mass produced consumer good..

Agreed. Why should i have to convince a company to take my money? There are PLENTY of brands that make great watches I would be just as happy with.

JwRosenthal · Feb 4, 2020

greyfox422
Agreed. Why should i have to convince a company to take my money? There are PLENTY of brands that make great watches I would be just as happy with.

And they would happily take your money today and provide you with a watch. I’ve likened it to dating before- i wouldn’t ask someone on a date only to be told that I have to go in a wait list and if I buy lots of jewelry and other niceties- they’ll think about it and maybe I can have a date in a year or two....although some are into that arrangement...no judgement 😗

cvalue13 · Feb 15, 2020

Was in my local AD today, asked generally about the their view on Rolex allocations this year.

Her response (in short): over the last several years, the total # of total ADs increased significantly (not only in Asia, but everywhere) while unit production #s stayed flat, and so the allocations per AD decreased Significantly; but, she says, Rolex is now yanking ADs, especially from malls and ‘big box’ outfits (or other venues they view as being beneath the brand’s status aspiration), and also reducing ADs in regions with multiple ADs competing for too little market (for example, in my town, this AD has two locations but the second will no longer be carrying Rolex by 3Q of this year). So, she said, they had some optimism that the AD locations that are not culled will see more units.

I don’t recount this here as gospel, but instead as gossip.

Wonder what folks like @Archer think of the notion that AD location #s have bloated in the last several years, resulting in per-AD allocations being diluted?

If that is true (a big if?), that factor concurrent with a general increase in demand would on paper to result in some of the dynamics we’ve seen.

Foo2rama · Feb 15, 2020

cvalue13
Was in my local AD today, asked generally about the their view on Rolex allocations this year.

Her response (in short): over the last several years, the total # of total ADs increased significantly (not only in Asia, but everywhere) while unit production #s stayed flat, and so the allocations per AD decreased Significantly; but, she says, Rolex is now yanking ADs, especially from malls and ‘big box’ outfits (or other venues they view as being beneath the brand’s status aspiration), and also reducing ADs in regions with multiple ADs competing for too little market (for example, in my town, this AD has two locations but the second will no longer be carrying Rolex by 3Q of this year). So, she said, they had some optimism that the AD locations that are not culled will see more units.

I don’t recount this here as gospel, but instead as gossip.

Wonder what folks like @Archer think of the notion that AD location #s have bloated in the last several years, resulting in per-AD allocations being diluted?

If that is true (a big if?), that factor concurrent with a general increase in demand would on paper to result in some of the dynamics we’ve seen.

I’ve not seen any new ones near me for over a decade. Interesting theory but I don’t believe it,

I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

JwRosenthal

scapa

cvalue13

wjgesq

Dan S

MTROIS

Dan S

jhross98

MTROIS

MTROIS

Dan S

NickC

wjgesq

funkright

JwRosenthal

wjgesq

greyfox422

JwRosenthal

cvalue13

Foo2rama

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