As for the aspirational “middle class” market (I am among the proud but shrinking middle class), you are absolutely right. But as has been mentioned before, the market that they appear to be trying to court (or give the appearance of being a part of ) doesn’t do wait lists, they don’t meet with the AD for coffee or buy something they don’t want to get what they do. If they can’t get it with a single phone call, they move on. A Rolex for them is a graduation gift for nephew- if a Rolex isn’t available, an Omega or JLC will do just fine. And those people can have someone call Patek for them and get anything they want that afternoon.
Rolex is trying to punch above their weight and they are losing their core market- it’s gonna bite them in the ass....eventually.

 

that's right Jw !! "if a Rolex isn’t available, an Omega or JLC will do just fine."

 

over the years i have read some things on OF i disagreed with but this one might take the cake where my personal opinion is just diametrically opposed

i went very very begrudgingly over to the "dark side" and never thought i'd own a ceramic daytona. 95% of my collection is vintage watches and there is nothing else in the modern lineup of rolex i'd even look twice at

for me, though, this is basically the perfect modern watch. proportions, bracelet, dial dize, visual impact, all absolutely spot on.

i desperately wanted to hate this watch but liked it so much i now have both black and white dial

i think there is a reason why for certain serious vintage guys (i'm thinking of guys like eric wind) this is the only modern watch they wear

but. . .the beauty of the hobby is that folks can be absolutely on opposite ends of this debate and both be right!!

 

"For some reason I feel that the ceramic bezel makes the watch look cheap."
I agree, it's true. especially if we wear a Zenith Daytona for so long , how can we like the new facelifts!
it seems like the variations of the classic Rolexes will go on and on for ever. Rolex should come with some new chronograph totally different...it would about time!

 

Has anyone had a recent experience of acquiring an explorer 1 in UK. I went to an AD and they said i can put a £1000 and it will take between 3-6 months. However the firm is going through a change in ownership and they said to come back in March. Hopefully they give me the same story in March .

 

Ever heart of China?

 

China's not driving this. If it was the explosion of the Chinese economy, this would have happened at least a decade ago instead of two years ago. Plus, Chinese economic growth is currently the slowest that it's been in three decades. Throw in that Xi has mandated a party crackdown on conspicuous consumption and in particular the giving of expensive Western gifts (i.e. as bribes), and China is not the explanation here.

 

Is it me, I mostly follow GMT Prices on the grey market. But they seem to have gone down a bit. not much but a bit. I do not follow Daytona prices or Subs.
Maybe demand is not so high or more offer???

 

I've recently been on the lookout for a Sky Dweller (GMT and Annual Calendar complications), just love GMT or Worldtimer orientated watches, and can say I have seen the same thing. Pricing from resellers varies widely on the Sky Dweller (all steel varying face colours) with two tones being more aggressively priced than steel only variants. All that said, I won't pay more than SRP and am willing to wait a reasonable period of time to buy from an AD. Since starting my adventure re Sky Dweller I have also started to look at Explorer IIs and that's where I see the best value right now (relative to SRP). As supply from ADs looks to be better on them, I may end up with a Polar Explorer II until the Sky Dweller comes down from, well, the sky OR that I actually can secure one from an AD

 

I believe Rolex did not hold back on production but the popularity of the Batman hit just at the time when they were discontinuing it, therefore creating a massive demand for a watch which they stopped producing.

As for submariners, as the popularity grew during the time Batman was slowing down. Rolex also became more specific as to where their watches were going. I think this was a way to slow down the grey market and to take back control of their image.

With all of this being said, you can make the argument that slowing down where the watch goes is slowing down production. To me I think they took an opportunity to become more selective and let the hype build as they maintained their normally scheduled program ;-)

 

And I will add to my comment, that the prices are coming down more in the US. More for the Batman than the Pepsi.
UK Market still seems quite high.
I will get an Explorer but after the GMT.
Being a Pilot I will really squeeze the juice out of it

 

If it was intended to "slow down the grey market" it can only be stated that it was a massive failure...

 

Not sure about all that. The Chinese (including Hong Kong) markets have been a material source of demand over the past decade. They continue today to comprise 2 out of 3 of the top luxury watch import countries (with the U.S. being the 3rd).

And, your raising the Chinese economic slow down (together with the VAT crackdown on luxury goods) is surely pertinent, but possibly for the opposite reason you suggest: I've heard it recounted by people on the business side of the watch industry that the Chinese slowdown/VAT is itself a material part of the SS shortage - companies do not want to ramp up SS supply BECAUSE the slow down is occurring, and there is fear the demand bubble, while still present, will be bursting. Point being, over the past few years demand has been high (including from Hong Kong/China as being two of the leading importers), but that demand is not viewed as stable enough to justify ramping up production.

Meanwhile, clearly another equally or more important concurrent factor in SS shortages are the explosion of internet/global sales platforms meets "grey market" speculators/dealers/scalpers. Just like with concert tickets (limited in number of seats in a venue), demand need only BARELY outstrip supply and there is created an opportunity for scalping at premium. Luxury watches are that on steroids - with stainless being at a price point having the largest demand room.

Which is all not to say your observations about the limits of the Chinese economy aren't pertinent, but instead that I wouldn't be so quick to say that ten years of exploding luxury watch demand followed by a slowdown can't have anything to do with a supply/demand bubble!

 

Not sure which all GMTs you're referring to, but in general it seems it's always the case that demand first spikes (e.g., the new Pepsi at release on the grey for $20K), then returns back to a bit of a plateau for some time (e.g., the new Pepsi now at grey around $16-18K), until the next "new-new" thing comes out. Same dip has happened to the SS Sky-Dweller ever since the new Pepsi came out... and when the new-new [X] comes out, both the Pepsi and Sky-Dweller will likely bobble down a bit more.

 

Read my second comment after

 

At some intersection of the following four articles, taken together, may be the bulk of an explanation:

"Swiss watchmakers say slowing growth in China won't hurt sales this year"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...china-wont-hurt-sales-this-year-idUSKCN1R22CK
"According to data from The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, the early part of 2018 saw the luxury watch market’s largest growth in almost five years, with Hong Kong and Mainland China leading the comeback. From January to June of 2018, Hong Kong and Mainland China contributed over $237.6 million in exported sales, with the U.S. purchasing $108.6 million worth of luxury watch exports. This equates to a huge 29.5 percent rise from 2017 in Hong Kong, 13.4 percent in Mainland China, and 9.1 percent in the United States."

"The pinnacle of the Chinese luxury watch market: Rolex in China | Daxue Consulting"
https://daxueconsulting.com/rolex-china-chinese-luxury-watch-market/
"In 2017, Swiss watch exports saw their strongest growth in more than five years according to a report by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. Hong Kong and mainland China were the top two markets for Swiss watches, with sales in Hong Kong rising 21.3 percent to 15 percent of the market and mainland China sales skyrocketing by 44.3 percent to reach 10.9 percent of the market."

"How Scalpers & Speculators Are Ruining The Watch Purchasing Experience For Many Consumers"
https://www.ablogtowatch.com/how-sc...tch-purchasing-experience-for-many-consumers/
"Finally, what to do about the problem of scalpers? The concert industry has had their own trials and tribulations dealing with ticket scalpers – which thematically is a similar situation as with watches. Only watches don’t expire like show tickets do… For me, the answer to how to deal with watch scalpers and speculators is really simple – vote with your wallet. If the profit they make from selling watches goes away, so do they. Collectors and watch consumers, in general, need to have some serious discipline here; just say no to paying above retail."

"Why Some Watches From Rolex, Patek Philippe & Others Are Impossible To Find At Retail"
http://www.ablogtowatch.com/why-some-watches-rolex-patek-philippe-impossible-retail/
"[T]o make a long story short it is our distinct belief (based on plenty of evidence) that some of the more clever (and independently owned) watch companies are going to be increasingly limiting supply of high-demand sport watches in order to increase demand. This will happen even if it means lowering short-term profits in the form of sales for those specific watches. It is a tactic that only works for stable brands with a long-term vision… and it requires incredible discipline. Discipline typically entirely non-existent in publicly traded or more short-term focused watch brands."

 

The last one being the most relevant.

 

I wanted a ceramic Sub date about a year and a half ago; put a deposit down at my local AD, and only had to wait about a month. Not too bad. I know Rolex is polarizing here, but I have to say it's a really satisfying sport watch. Have taken it on some adventures.

 

10-4
Batman->Pepsi dynamic the same as noted above, and Pepsi->[?] dynamic will do same to Pepsi

 

Archer, I feel like the point of the last one can't exist without the concurrent point of the scalpers. You?