Conversation with my AD today and should expect my M116610LV0002 very soon and at around eleven/twelve months waiting time I am happy

 

That’s weird the omega AD in Boston encouraged me to take pics. The Rolex AD was quite similar to what you explained. Just a handful of watches and nasty looks if you take a pic.

 

There were 14 watches and 37 Empty watch slots in display case #1. They only had 16 watches in case #2. Display case #3 held 16 watches too.

They could have fit the entire stock of Rolex in one case, and moved the two extra empty cases into the the backroom. 2/3 of the display space was EMPTY!

BTW - This AD (John Bull I think) sold about 20 different brands of watches, and Rolex only took up about 5% of the store space with the 3 display cases.

 

I'm actively looking for a Sub 114060 or possibly an Explorer 1 at the minute as my first modern watch, so called into my local AD this weekend.

No stainless sport in stock obviously (or certainly none available to me) but we had a chat and I asked the reason for the shortage. The manager seems fairly happy to discuss it and this was the response;

1. Global reallocation of new watches, so in the past certain areas may get more Subs etc. Rolex has changed this to make it fairer so every area/country gets a fair share which has reduced the number available in places like the EU and US.

2. More folk buying as investments as there's no interest in saving accounts.

3. Folk buying to immediately flip to places like Watchfinder.

4. Huge increase in demand in Asia, either in Asian ADs or by Asian tourists in other areas.

5. Skills shortage in Switzerland so production has been disrupted a couple of times.

Interestingly he did suggest they were well aware of the issue with people immediately flipping new watches and that it was a cause of genuine frustration.

Frustratingly for me, I don't expect to have the opportunity to buy a Sub at retail any time soon.

 

I know it has to be very frustrating, but I don't believe what your AD is telling you regarding #1 #2 and #3 - maybe #4 and #5 are true, but I have no way to know.

If #1 is true then it doesn't seem like distribution is being properly adjusted according to population/number of buyers. It would be one thing if there really was increased demand and the dealers were claiming that the watches are being sold as fast as they can get them, BUT the dealers are complaining about not having any SS Professional Rolex to sell at all (I've spoken with several).

One of the biggest AD in Denver claimed to have only received 5-6 white dial ceramic Daytona in stock in 2018, and they could sell that many each month once the backlog was taken care of. I've been on the waiting list at two Denver Rolex AD since the watch was announced, same with SS Pepsi GMT II, but no love.

In 2015 both of my closest Rolex AD's had most SS models in stock except for the GMT II BLNR, and I even got to try on a Platinum Daytona that was for sale in 2015. I bought my BLNR from DavidSW after waiting 3 months at the AD, and at the time it was $9000 out the door, vs $9800 after tax at the AD, if they could get me one. The days of buying below MSRP from a 3rd party went away soon after.

It seems like after Rolex announced the 5 year warranty program that same year, supply of SS Rolex including the Hulk started to dry up. And it's gone downhill since - now even simple Explorer I and Explorer II's that were filling up display cases are absent. Still, Rolex announce new watches that don't seem to show up at stores for weeks or months on end (i.e. ceramic Daytona, SS Pepsi GMT).

I visit my AD regularly, and they have not received a single Sea Dweller Deep Blue in months - when I inquired 4 months ago he said I'd get the next one to come into the store within 3-8 months! How can Rolex be sending his store only 2 of these a YEAR (large jewelry chain and Rolex AD)? It's been almost a year since they had one come in.

If Rolex is making 2,000 watches a day in total, and the demand for SS professional watches is so high, why are dealers are sitting on unsold Datejusts in steel and gold that nobody wants? Rolex sends unwanted models to dealers who then have to force people to buy them in order to buy what they want sooner than another buyer.

And, how can people buy Rolex to invest or buy to immediately flip if the dealers all claim to be getting ZERO OR DIMINISHED watch inventory? Where do the flippers get them? certainly not from the display cases. AD's need stock to sell watches that can be flipped - So, either Rolex is lying about sending out the watches in the first place, or the dealers are lying and they're sending the watches out the back door.

This below article supports the notion of the watches flying out the back door to preferred buyers, buyers who are reselling the watches for a hefty markup, and the writer doesn't even hold the AD accountable and gives them a pass.

https://beckertime.com/blog/rolex-authorized-dealers-then-and-now/

 

Rolex is selling most of the SS sports models in China is nothing but a right load of old Codswallup.

Rolex is trying to get rid of the millions of DateJust watches that they are stuck with after the Chineses government banned giving of watches as gifts for - er um helping do stuff

 

And

https://www.watchpro.com/authorised...being-driven-by-flippers-and-internet-forums/

But then he goes on to say,

So again, HOW CAN FLIPPERS BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHORTAGE OF THESE WATCHES IF STORES LIKE HIS ONLY GET 3 TO SELL?

I want to know how many of these watches were available to his store each year in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, etc... I think there is a downward trend in the number being delivered. Certainly wasn't only 3 GMT a few years back.

 

Relief in sight?

https://www.watchpro.com/corders-column-rolex-drought-will-ease-within-two-years/

 

I called into my other local AD today to see what they were saying.

First off, the lady who I saw was brilliant. Rather than speaking with me across the counter, she invited me in for a chat and asked what I was looking for and why, as we sat down. She then explained (as expected) they didn't have any Subs, Explorers or even 39mm OPs in stock but she brought out some 36mm and 41mm (two tone) DJs so I could get an idea of size.

What surprised me was when she said they hadn't had a 41mm steel DJ delivered for months, and they also knew they would be getting no OPs or Explorers until the new year at the earliest.

She also seemed genuinely frustrated that she couldn't sell me what I was looking for, but did take my details and suggested they didn't even do this for people who couldn't show they lived locally.

Hopefullly things may start to move soon. I could easily see me buying a couple of pieces from them as from what I saw the customer service seemed excellent. Just unable to get hold of the products most customer are looking for.

 

Funny as you were not a customer not even a browser as they had nothing for you to browse

customer

1. 1.
   a person who buys goods or services from a shop or business
   
   
   

 

Like a Forum shop, you go in and talk about watches

Bricks and Mortar forum

 

I think it is too soon to make a statements like that. For me it looks like, they are just trying to move inventory. But , we shall see.

 

Went to a new-to-me dealer near me today. To my surprise, both of their Rolex cases were filled, albeit primarily with DJs and Day-Dates. There were, however, a tu-tone precious Submariner, a full YG Sub, and a SS Yacht II, all available at MSRP to anyone who had payment ready.

I confess, I did play with the Yachtie, but they only let me take a pic of it while in the case.

 

What does the column on the right represent, the one that goes from 0 to 70?

 

Excuse me, but how do you know that nobody wants Datejusts? I doubt you have any verifiable statistics, just would like to know how you arrived at that supposition.
I wager that to most people DJ IS the only Rolex they would ever recognize as such, and Rolex sells more of them than all the steel sports watches combined, but that's just a guess on my part.

 

Agreed, how do we know the majority of production aren't the DJ's since they are the brands #1 seller?

 

As I've mentioned previously, I don't buy the Asia (let's be honest, we're talking about China) excuse. The Chinese economy didn't take off two years ago. If this is what is driving it, we'd have seen the effect a decade ago. Plus, the Chinese economy is maturing and the gold rush of the late 00's is over. Throw in that Xi and party have enacted a serious crackdown against conspicuous consumption and materialism (you probably don't want to be a Chinese citizen coming home through customs with a new Rolex in your luggage), and I just don't buy the fact that China is swallowing up all the SS sport watches.

 

I'll fix it for you.

"If Rolex is making 2,000 watches a day in total, and the demand for SS professional watches is so high, why are dealers are sitting on unsold Datejusts in steel and gold while complaining to customers that Rolex isn't sending them any SS stock? It seems that Rolex sends too many PM models to dealers who then often force people to buy them in order to buy the SS that they really want now."