Hopefully Very Good News About Vaccination for Covid

Wryfox · Jan 6, 2021

STANDY
Ummm low risk you say

The modern prison is a perfect breeding ground for COVID-19. For example, more than 20,000 prisoners and 6,400 prison staff have tested positive in the United States (Human Rights Watch 2020), with reports highlighting very high rates of infection of between 74 and 98 per cent of prisoners in correctional facilities in Ohio, California, and Louisiana (Lartey 2020) and a seven-fold infection rate observed in New York City jails (Barnert 2020). Reasons cited for high risk and prevalence within prisons include overcrowding, poor ventilation, close habitation, and social-distancing challenges, all of which can contribute to virus transmission (Montoya-Barthelemy et al. 2020). In both Italy and Colombia, the pandemic has been also a cause of large-scale prison rioting and escape attempts (Anthony 2020).

Risk is defined here as risk of death, not risk of contracting it. For those at low risk, 99% its nothing more than cold symptoms. For the elderly its 15% chance of death or higher. But if your ok with murderers, rapists, and yes death row inmates getting vaccinated over your mother or father, you be you in your happy little sunshine world.

STANDY · Jan 6, 2021

Wryfox
Risk is defined here as risk of death, not risk of contracting it. For those at low risk, 99% its nothing more than cold symptoms. For the elderly its 15% chance of death or higher. But if your ok with murderers, rapists, and yes death row inmates getting vaccinated over your mother or father, you be you in your happy little sunshine world.

You need to brush up on what risk means.

risk
/rɪsk/

noun

a situation involving exposure to danger.

Wetworks · Jan 6, 2021

Evitzee
Health care people are not immune to ignorance or stupidity, those traits run through all groups of people. The number of lawyers who die with no will or trust is staggering.

Truth. I wish I could play back the protestations I heard in April and May of those I worked with, decrying my insistence that my naturally acquired immunity from Covid was a lovely thing. Trained medical professionals, higher degreed than myself, who's eyes glazed over when I'd come back at their quips of "this virus is different" or "you don't know ___" with reasoned comments about innate and acquired immunity. Now they're all "y0u nEed tEh vAcCiNe" and I'm like, we talked about this months ago, remember?

All that said, I will not attempt to convince or dissuade someone of getting the vaccine, it's a personal medical decision. I'll provide you with facts as I know them, refer you to someone/where when I don't.

Wryfox · Jan 6, 2021

STANDY
You need to brush up on what risk means.

risk
/rɪsk/

noun

a situation involving exposure to danger.

Correct. Death is dangerous. Thank you for your support.

JohnWoo · Jan 7, 2021

S Shay
Where are you based? In UK it seems it is a bit slow, it might take months before I get mine maybe 2022.

The UK is not slow, nearly 1.5 million vaccinations done so far with the advantage of the Oxford vaccine now approved and storage in normal food temp fridges. All who want the jab will have it by the summer.

cvalue13 · Jan 7, 2021

JohnWoo
The UK is not slow, nearly 1.5 million vaccinations done so far with the advantage of the Oxford vaccine now approved and storage in normal food temp fridges.

From the U.S., that’s fantastic to hear for our U.K. friends.

Unfortunately, things here in the states are more bleak.

To be fair, the challenges of rolling out in the U.S. are comparatively unique given our country’s size (e.g., the U.K. is 33% of the landmass size of Texas - with the entire US being 40x larger than the UK), and with far less population density (e.g., within that 33% landmass of Texas, the UK has ~three times as many people as all of Texas). Then there’s the Federal/State regulatory framework sh*tshow. These differences reasonably present different logistical challenges compared to other “western” countries.

At the same time, there are more similarly situated counties in terms of land mass and population density (e.g., Canada) that *appear* to be handling the roll out far better than the U.S.

My wife is a physician, and I have a degree in molecular biology, and even WE aren’t clear on the entire logistical *plan* to roll out the vaccines in our community - so I can only imagine how in the dark other, less plugged-in, folks must be.

JohnWoo · Jan 7, 2021

cvalue13
From the U.S., that’s fantastic to hear for our U.K. friends.

Unfortunately, things here in the states are more bleak.

To be fair, the challenges of rolling out in the U.S. are comparatively unique given our country’s size (e.g., the U.K. is 33% of the landmass size of Texas - with the entire US being 40x larger than the UK), and with far less population density (e.g., within that 33% landmass of Texas, the UK has ~three times as many people as all of Texas). Then there’s the Federal/State regulatory framework sh*tshow. These differences reasonably present different logistical challenges compared to other “western” countries.

At the same time, there are more similarly situated counties in terms of land mass and population density (e.g., Canada) that *appear* to be handling the roll out far better than the U.S.

My wife is a physician, and I have a degree in molecular biology, and even WE aren’t clear on the entire logistical *plan* to roll out the vaccines in our community - so I can only imagine how in the dark other, less plugged-in, folks must be.

I agree that geography is a big factor, we are often compared to New Zealand in handling Covid 19, as you say, like for like is not a good comparison.
Just for info, the Oxford/Astra vaccine is being supplied on a non profit basis at less than £3 per shot. This will be international as soon as possible.
Maybe a new US President will have a speedier pathway in mind for rollout.
Very best wishes and stay safe to all, things will improve.
J.

John7boy · Jan 7, 2021

Based in the UK here, to quote Boris the rollout program is an “unprecedented national effort”. Thankfully my parents had their second jab yesterday (both in their early 80’s) and I’m so thankful. The vaccine looks to be our only way out of this given the poor decisions made up to now by our leadership.

3nicewatches · Jan 7, 2021

I got the first shot of the Pfizer vaccine in the US on Dec 31. I'm not frontline, but I do work at a major medical center and in a building where research with the SARS-CoV-2 virus is taking place (in a Biosafety facility of course). After first offering the vaccine to all frontline healthcare workers here, the medical center have moved onto offering to other staff. I will get my second shot in a couple of weeks. Only side effect of the first one was a sore arm that lasted 1-2 days - but some younger people here reported fever and headache that lasted one day - so, typical and expected side effects, and obviously preferable to the possible alternative.

I'm not that old (50s), although I am a Type 1 diabetic, and so it is reassuring to be getting vaccinated and it does give me a sense of optimism that we are beginning to dig our way out of this. Of course, you still can't fully relax after being vaccinated. Even if the Pfizer vaccine really is 95% effective, that still means you have a 1 in 20 chance of not being protected. It will only be if we can get enough people vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and so stop the virus circulating widely, that we can relax. Until then, the mask, distancing and so on will continue, both to protect me and, if the vaccine does not stop asymptomatic transmission, perhaps to protect others as well.

Dash1 · Jan 7, 2021

Wetworks
Truth. I wish I could play back the protestations I heard in April and May of those I worked with, decrying my insistence that my naturally acquired immunity from Covid was a lovely thing. Trained medical professionals, higher degreed than myself, who's eyes glazed over when I'd come back at their quips of "this virus is different" or "you don't know ___" with reasoned comments about innate and acquired immunity. Now they're all "y0u nEed tEh vAcCiNe" and I'm like, we talked about this months ago, remember?

All that said, I will not attempt to convince or dissuade someone of getting the vaccine, it's a personal medical decision. I'll provide you with facts as I know them, refer you to someone/where when I don't.

So, given that you had the virus and likely have some immunity will you also take a vaccine shot if offered or not? My (very limited) understanding is that natural immunity might not last for very long. I ask because I also had the virus back in April.

cvalue13 · Jan 7, 2021

Dash1
My (very limited) understanding is that natural immunity might not last for very long.

Technically, there is not yet data on how long the vaccine may provide immunity, either: all that is supported with direct data is that, as of today, the immunity has lasted since the initial test groups were inoculated.

There is indirect (and aspirational!) evidence that the vaccines could provide lasting immunity - but based purely on how other vaccines have performed with other viruses. While instructive, not determinative.

That said, I don’t make vaccines for a living, etc., I merely have some background in molecular bio and a decent understanding of scientific method 😵‍💫

So, I certainly can’t, for example, say how reliable/instructive the indirect data is given the facts.

Here’s hoping the new vaccines both provide ling lasting and generalizing immunity

Walrus · Jan 7, 2021

cvalue13
Technically, there is not yet data on how long the vaccine may provide immunity, either: all that is supported with direct data is that, as of today, the immunity has lasted since the initial test groups were inoculated.

There is indirect (and aspirational!) evidence that the vaccines could provide lasting immunity - but based purely on how other vaccines have performed with other viruses. While instructive, not determinative.

That said, I don’t make vaccines for a living, etc., I merely have some background in molecular bio and a decent understanding of scientific method 😵‍💫

So, I certainly can’t, for example, say how reliable/instructive the indirect data is given the facts.

Here’s hoping the new vaccines both provide ling lasting and generalizing immunity

Moderna just reported their vaccine may provide coverage for up to two years. Key word being “may” so it appears we still don’t have clarity. I will report, and this isn’t to scare anyone as it doesn’t appear to be a common side effect, that I got lightheaded about two hours after my first injection that lead to vertigo about 10 hours later. I was unable to drive to work but after 24hrs it’s just about cleared up. That was the Moderna vaccine and I have only talked to a 2 other people who had this experience.

Wetworks · Jan 8, 2021

Dash1
So, given that you had the virus and likely have some immunity will you also take a vaccine shot if offered or not? My (very limited) understanding is that natural immunity might not last for very long. I ask because I also had the virus back in April.

No, I will not. Naturally acquired immunity is most likely longer than you are hearing, but I won't get into that here.

cvalue13 · Jan 8, 2021

Wetworks
Naturally acquired immunity is most likely longer than you are hearing, but I won’t get into that here.

Because the person you are responding to is essentially asking medical advice (whether he/she should get inoculated since having had COVID), I’d offer that if (A) you are going to say that acquired immunity will last, then (B) it may be prudent to offer some support for this.

Walrus
Moderna just reported their vaccine may provide coverage for up to two years. Key word being “may”

I think the other key word are “up to” 👎

I’m more interested in floors than ceilings

Wetworks · Jan 8, 2021

cvalue13
Because the person you are responding to is essentially asking medical advice (whether he/she should get inoculated since having had COVID), I’d offer that if (A) you are going to say that acquired immunity will last, then (B) it may be prudent to offer some support for this.

Specifically, they asked about my personal decision, which I answered, accompanied by a very basic scientific fact for that personal decision. You've stated previously that your significantly higher degreed than I, so presumably you'd be in agreement with (A) and would be readily able to supply (B) instead of basically 'calling me out', which I was respectfully (to the OF team) attempting to avoid. Nevertheless, here:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/06/science.abf4063/tab-pdf

Some highlights for those not inclined to read the entire PDF:

"Notably, memory B cells specific for the Spike protein or RBD were detected in almost all COVID-19 cases, with no apparent half-life at 5 to 8 months post-infection."

"For antibodies, the responses spanned a ~200-fold range..... studies in non-human primates have indicated that circulating neutralization titers of ~200 may provide sterilizing immunity against a relatively high dose URT (upper respiratory tract) challenge."

"Nevertheless, our data show immune memory in at least three immunological compartments was measurable in ~95% of subjects 5 to 8 months PSO, indicating that durable immunity against secondary COVID-19 disease is a possibility in most individuals."

"Using different approaches, the long-term durability of memory CD4+ T cells to smallpox, over a period of many years, was an estimated t1/2 of ~10 years, which is also consistent with recent detection of SARS-CoV-T cells 17 years after the initial infection. These data suggest that T cell memory might reach a more stable plateau, or slower decay phase, beyond the first 8 months post-infection."

So, some good news about immunity for COVID, too! Win-win!!!!

EDIT- I'll not respond further on this particular topic as I feel I expressed my (limited) personal feelings adequately, and the science, from what I can see, stands on its own. Natural and artificial acquired immunity are the way out of this, anyone debating that is anti-science.

cvalue13 · Jan 8, 2021

Wetworks
You've stated previously that your significantly higher degreed than I, so presumably you'd be in agreement with (A) and would be readily able to supply (B) instead of basically 'calling me out', which I was respectfully (to the OF team) attempting to avoid.

I don’t think I’ve stated that I’m higher-degreed “than you” (I don’t think I’ve ever had “your name in my mouth” before my comment above?).

Sorry if you took any differently my mention of my my degree in molecular-bio as having anything at all to do with you.

Instead, and so as to not leave any lingering confusion about my claimed credentials that might result from your comment, I was only intending to do what is prudent when venturing toward anything remotely approximating what could be construed (especially misconstrued) as medical advice: stating the basis from which my expertise or lack there of arises, and being sure to provide along with it any caveat such as:

cvalue13
That said, I don’t make vaccines for a living, etc., I merely have some background in molecular bio and a decent understanding of scientific method 😵‍💫

I also purposefully did not mention that my wife is a physician who is trained in these areas, to be doubly certain there is no confusion that my statements have any direct authority. (Not am I doing so here now for any reason other than to demonstrate the degree of prudence I think required.)

Because the fundamental point is, no matter how many aeronautic magazines one has read, no matter how many hours one has logged in a flight simulator, and even no matter if one has a Private Pilot’s License: you cannot pilot a commercial aircraft; and if you do, you are morally culpable for at best endangering the lives of the passengers, and it can only get worse from there.

To be clear, I’m not reciting the above in order to implicate you by association but instead to explain why I did not leave my own authority (or lack there of) unclear, and also why I merely asked that you do the same, because...

Wetworks
Naturally acquired immunity is most likely longer than you are hearing, but I won't get into that here.

... you did “get into *that*” here, and I was curious as to the basis of your assertion that you did make.

So thank you, then, for supplying information that allows one to read experts describing preliminary results of an academic and non-longitudinal study.

But I do not thank you for then going on to cherry-pick and distort quotes to omit the relevant and deep caveats the authors had included before making your quoted statements.

So, while it feels now a pissing match (perhaps it is), I think it only fair that I here offer your quoted material at least the most material (but not all) of those deep caveats stated by the authors:

“We observed that heterogeneous in-
itial antibody responses did not collapse into a homogeneous circulating antibody memory; rather, heterogeneity is also a central feature of immune memory to this virus. For antibodies, the responses spanned a ~200-fold range.

Additionally, this heterogeneity means that long
-term longitudinal studies will be required to precisely define antibody kinetics to SARS-CoV
-2. We are reporting the simplest statistical models that explain the data. These curve fits do not disprove more complex kinetics such as overlapping kinetics, but those models would require much denser longitudinal sampling in future studies....

...While immune memory is the source of long
-term protective immunity, direct conclusions about protective immunity cannot be made on the basis of quantifying SARS-CoV-2 circulating antibodies, memory B cells, CD8+, T cells, and CD4+ T cells, because mechanisms of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 are not defined in humans. Nevertheless, some reasonable interpretations can be made [including from tests on monkeys]”

Which can all be summarized as scientific-journal speak for (and my following summary being based only on my experience having applied to publish to failure a few times, and co-authored published papers in scientific journals only once): “this is an academic paper, and not a terribly important one, and far from anything that should be the basis of medical decisions in humans.”

cvalue13 · Jan 8, 2021

Wetworks
I'll not respond further on this particular topic as I feel I expressed my (limited) personal feelings adequately, and the science, from what I can see, stands on its own. Natural and artificial acquired immunity are the way out of this, anyone debating that is anti-science.

Having signaled a gracious exit, he then proceeded to fart his entire way out of the room.

I can’t even be mad at that!