I don't disagree with you that money has changed things. However, I don't necessarily think that it's driven by pure speculation or greed. Well, maybe not ALL of it anyway.
The way I see it, this is a pure supply demand issue with vintage watches. My own opinion is that there's just much less information assymetry out there. What do I mean by this?
There's just a lot of information and scholarship work out there for certain references. One example I think about is vintage Heuer. The early screw back Autavias are not only rare, but they have a deep work of known serials, dial/hand/bezel variations, and specific elements that help a potential buyer know what's a real vs a Franken watch. So you could spend $60k and know you're getting the real deal. I think vintage speedies and Rolex (to some degree) share this advantage of just a lot of data and knowledge out there.
In contrast, the Heuer Camaro was a much later chronograph towards the end of their manual valjoux movements before they switched to the caliber 11. So, while there's a pretty good list of known dial and hand variations, it's also known that there isn't any hard and fast rule for what hands went with which dial etc. There isn't a clear range for the serial number as well. With all these unknown variables, can a collector really put down $60k on one of these examples? Possible, but less likely.
At the end of the day, it's a catch-22. The more data and knowledge thats out there, the more collectors as a whole are able to discern and buy great examples. I firmly believe this also drives sellers to bring their watches to market as well. However, that same knowledge drives higher prices due to buyers being able to derisk their purchase.
At the end of the day, we are all bound by certain limitations (financial, watch box size, number of wrists), so I say just continue contributing to the community and see where the market takes us.
Click to expand...