Has the watch collecting hobby been tarnished by money?

arcadelt · Nov 11, 2018

I've seen three things today that have given me pause to think that the point of watch collecting is going or has gone off the rails, and the principle cause is money.

1. As I was browsing through watch forums as I do most mornings over breakfast, I saw a post in a thread I am following recommending to an OP to buy a modern Speedmaster CK2998 as it's "One of the modern speedies out there that hold [sic] it’s value" - nothing about its good looks or its horological chops, just that it will not lose you much when you go to flip it. Worse that this was advice coming from a long time member of that forum with a pretty high post count.

2. In the watch news of the day I see Hodinkee headlining their shop this morning that a watch they collaborated on with Laurent Ferrier back in 2017 (gosh, so long ago) had sold at auction with Phillips for 18% over its retail price. At least I can accept this as advertising, as Hodinkee had the good sense to "report" it in their shop and not on their websites front page as news.

3. @on_the_dash has posted on their Instagram page that Christie’s have Photoshopped listing images of a rare Heuer Skipper that is going up for auction today Geneva time. No doubt, this was just to attract more attention to the watch in a hope to attract more bidders, but of course this could be constituted as fraud against online bidders who have no chance to see the lot in person.

You know, I think I liked the hobby better when the watches were worth less, there were no long waiting lists and new watches being sold over list price, and the interest from collectors was in what we liked in a watch, not its investment value, with a hope that we might not lose too much when we sold it on or traded it with a fellow collector sometime well into the future (measured in years, not days or weeks).

NT931 · Nov 11, 2018

The watch collecting hobby has been affected by money for many years already IMO.

bigsom · Nov 11, 2018

I also think the CK2998 blue panda is quite dashing! Just saying 😉

Ninja2789 · Nov 11, 2018

I don't disagree with you that money has changed things. However, I don't necessarily think that it's driven by pure speculation or greed. Well, maybe not ALL of it anyway.

The way I see it, this is a pure supply demand issue with vintage watches. My own opinion is that there's just much less information assymetry out there. What do I mean by this?

There's just a lot of information and scholarship work out there for certain references. One example I think about is vintage Heuer. The early screw back Autavias are not only rare, but they have a deep work of known serials, dial/hand/bezel variations, and specific elements that help a potential buyer know what's a real vs a Franken watch. So you could spend $60k and know you're getting the real deal. I think vintage speedies and Rolex (to some degree) share this advantage of just a lot of data and knowledge out there.

In contrast, the Heuer Camaro was a much later chronograph towards the end of their manual valjoux movements before they switched to the caliber 11. So, while there's a pretty good list of known dial and hand variations, it's also known that there isn't any hard and fast rule for what hands went with which dial etc. There isn't a clear range for the serial number as well. With all these unknown variables, can a collector really put down $60k on one of these examples? Possible, but less likely.

At the end of the day, it's a catch-22. The more data and knowledge thats out there, the more collectors as a whole are able to discern and buy great examples. I firmly believe this also drives sellers to bring their watches to market as well. However, that same knowledge drives higher prices due to buyers being able to derisk their purchase.

At the end of the day, we are all bound by certain limitations (financial, watch box size, number of wrists), so I say just continue contributing to the community and see where the market takes us.

ATWG · Nov 11, 2018

CK2998 is by far the best looking modern Omega by miles. Very tempted to buy one.

jmazpiazu · Nov 11, 2018

NT931
The watch collecting hobby has been affected by money for many years already IMO.

This.

lustrousaurus · Nov 11, 2018

To most people, a couple thousand dollars is a lot, especially for a watch. They’d like to see that money turn into an investment but we all know it doesn’t work that way. People always asked me if a watch would hold value and I couldn’t answer that, I don’t have access to the future. Best to wear that watch and enjoy it. You can put a 8k watch in a safe but you can also put $8,000 in a safe.

bigsom · Nov 11, 2018

lustrousaurus
To most people, a couple thousand dollars is a lot, especially for a watch. They’d like to see that money turn into an investment but we all know it doesn’t work that way. People always asked me if a watch would hold value and I couldn’t answer that, I don’t have access to the future. Best to wear that watch and enjoy it. You can put a 8k watch in a safe but you can also put $8,000 in a safe.

The awesome thing about this hobby, for me at least, is that there are so many financial levels of watch collecting and wearing. If that 8,000 is something that needs to grow then you can invest that more cautiously and with less risk. Then turn around and enjoy a fantastic watch from Seiko, Hamilton, Longines, or a microbrand for 500-1000 USD (just an example there are fun and robust mechanical watches at lower price points obviously) and not worry about it as much. I'm just saying in watch collecting you have multilevel commitment options - it doesn't always have to be outside of one's comfort zone.

paulw · Nov 11, 2018

Me, I only ever buy what I want to wear and that is irrespective of age, marque/heritage, current value or potential future value. As a consequence I currently own; 3 Omega's (from the 70's) 3 Citizen's (oldest is 15) and 3 Chinese watches (all new) 2 of which are on an airplane at the moment, winging their way to me. All have one thing in common (except the two yet to arrive) I think they look fabulous and are great to wear, so money well spent in my book. I'm really rather happy with this as I often see watches on here with huge price tags being discussed that I wouldn't look at twice or want to put on my wrist and being enthused over for their original condition but all I see is a train wreck...will my Chinese watches ever be worth anything long-term, no, nor for that matter the Citizens, but they are great to wear. As for the Omega's, well I expect I could sell them at any point in he future for more than I paid for them. But that wasn't why I bought them and according to many on here, I've wiped loads of value off one by sending it away to have it's dial restored & OK'ing a case polish - but to me it isn't wearable in its current state, so I don't really care. I've owned it for over 30 years, I'm unlikely to sell it, but even if I did, based on what I've seen of the market it would sell for far more than I paid for it, with inflation taken into account & the restoration cost added in.😀

Paul

sdre · Nov 11, 2018

I think with regards to Op, all these issues rising about Omega... Ultraman and now this Christie mess ; it definitely killed the brand for me.

That said, as what @bigsom has mentioned, collecting isn't always about expensive watches. U get alot more bang for the buck with lesser known brands that stylistically speaking is the same or on par with bigger more well know brands.

jumpingsecond · Nov 11, 2018

Thanks for this thoughtful post.This made me think why I got into watches in the first place. Used to be my wonder for artistry and micro-engineering.

At some point, once enough experience gained, something changed and I've found more and more I get caught up on the economic side- how much will it be worth when I tire of it.

I think the more I learned the more exploitative the game has gotten for me-Its not even intentional. Maybe influenced by the pop culturization of the hobby today. Instagram etc. The rat race of social media.

It'll be good to go back to collecting what makes me wonder and not what can I get out of this one. Less pressure more fun.

ext1 · Nov 11, 2018

Well, I'm at a financial level where losing a couple hundred over 4-digit purchases would be still a sizable amount gone, so I get where that CK2998 comment comes from. I think it's really hard to truly detach money into the equation as the digits go up. Unfortunately I pretty much only let my like of a piece guide my purchase decision, and these pieces were ending up in the 4-5 digit region. And also since I really like to save up for something I really want, I find myself in a situation where I have to care a bit. So, it's not about investment that makes me care a bit about value and money, it's my financial level. If the vintage pieces I like were worth lower, I likely would not be affected more. There was a good related thread here- https://omegaforums.net/threads/how-often-do-you-go-1000-usd-to-buy-vintage.83852/

But I do also wish in general vintage watches weren't commanding crazy prices like they are now. I started this because I just simply liked the look of vintage speedys, and I very unfortunately happened to find out about them just when the prices were rising. Ed whites were like, 7-9k. Then the stakes got higher and then there were more shenanigans going on in sales listings and auctions. And also since a lot of other people apparently liked the same things I like, they started increasing more and more.

oddboy · Nov 11, 2018

C'mon guys

OMEGA-Speedmaster-CK2998-Limited-Edition-lollipop-blue-panda-Baselworld-2016-4-768x513.jpg

On a more serious note though, wider interest in a topic - just about any topic - can "ruin" it for those that came before. Look what Green Day did to punk music. Ugh. But that doesn't mean it has to take the pleasure out of it for you. I still like punk music and uncover new bands all the time that I really like, even though Green Day sells out 30,000 seat auditoriums.

Just because other people get caught up in the money side of it doesn't mean you can't take pleasure from the hunt, the find, the opening an incoming or even just wearing a watch you like.

boogedyboo · Nov 11, 2018

Ninja2789
I don't disagree with you that money has changed things. However, I don't necessarily think that it's driven by pure speculation or greed. Well, maybe not ALL of it anyway.

The way I see it, this is a pure supply demand issue with vintage watches. My own opinion is that there's just much less information assymetry out there. What do I mean by this?

There's just a lot of information and scholarship work out there for certain references. One example I think about is vintage Heuer. The early screw back Autavias are not only rare, but they have a deep work of known serials, dial/hand/bezel variations, and specific elements that help a potential buyer know what's a real vs a Franken watch. So you could spend $60k and know you're getting the real deal. I think vintage speedies and Rolex (to some degree) share this advantage of just a lot of data and knowledge out there.

In contrast, the Heuer Camaro was a much later chronograph towards the end of their manual valjoux movements before they switched to the caliber 11. So, while there's a pretty good list of known dial and hand variations, it's also known that there isn't any hard and fast rule for what hands went with which dial etc. There isn't a clear range for the serial number as well. With all these unknown variables, can a collector really put down $60k on one of these examples? Possible, but less likely.

At the end of the day, it's a catch-22. The more data and knowledge thats out there, the more collectors as a whole are able to discern and buy great examples. I firmly believe this also drives sellers to bring their watches to market as well. However, that same knowledge drives higher prices due to buyers being able to derisk their purchase.

At the end of the day, we are all bound by certain limitations (financial, watch box size, number of wrists), so I say just continue contributing to the community and see where the market takes us.

I agree with what you have said about information assymetry but from the opposing view. It is when there is insufficient information on the buyers' side that prices can vary wildly.

It is because there is so much ready information on vintage Speedmasters (Chuck Maddox, SP101.com and the like) that there are less outliers with regards to price. It is also relatively easy to tell when vintage Speedmaster dials have been relumed/polished, etc.. There is just a wealth of information out there so it much harder to pull a fast one on buyers.

However, with lesser known vintage watches or watches with many permutations (like your Heuer Camaro example), the power is in the hands of the those who hold the watches i.e. the sellers. I feel this is where things can get tarnished because of money because sellers are motivated by profit and may not always be scrupulous (as in the case of Christie's), especially when a claim of a "tropical" dial or "original lume" may double or triple the price.

Steve88M3 · Nov 12, 2018

Money makes the world go round.

Why should watch collecting be any different?

Rman · Nov 12, 2018

Tarnished maybe, but not ruined. The cost and the notion of values is very relative to brand and reference.

Certain ones attract certain types of colllectors.

My view is probably shared by many others here, that there is something in this hobby for anyone at any price-point if you have some disposable income and an inquisitiveness about wristwatches.

STANDY · Nov 12, 2018

Its all changed to $$$$

When Hodinkee was up and coming, they always said never ever buy a vintage watch without seeing a movement photo.

Log onto Hodinkee and see how many movement shots of their vintage watches you see today. (Even try asking for one) 😗

If you followed a old Hodinkee buying guide you wouldnt buy from them......😲

arcadelt · Nov 12, 2018

NT931
The watch collecting hobby has been affected by money for many years already IMO.

Well, many years is a relative term. I started in 2000 and it didn’t feel the same back then.

Speedmasterfan88 · Nov 12, 2018

I totally agree with your Number 3.:That's outright wrong behavior by Chritsties. And stuff like this is what's driving me forward to build a safe haven for vintage watch auctioning (I will update my "I quit my job" thread in the next months, it'`s still a work in progress).

Number 2.: Nothing to worry about or "tarnishing" IMO. A modern watch is worth more than retail. This happens all the time, in many fields, cars, art, etc. Supply and demand I guess.

Number 1. I have to somewhat disagree. I don't know why you think this tarnishes the hobby?
First it would be interesting to know what the inital question from the OP was.
Maybe the OP had already established a taste for a specific style of watch, good looks, and it's horological quirks, and was now just asking about a good buy, value wise?

I get that giving this advice out to someone is like looking into a glass bowl into the future. We can't know, only guess.

But I don't find it wrong that someone is, in your words, worried to lose money when he flips it.

We get so easily detached from the prices when we talk and look at watches all day that are deep in the 4-5 figures.

I side with most of us here and often when I'm asked the question of what watch to buy, I give the obligatory "buy what you like" answer.

This sentiment of buy what you like however, can be viewed as somewhat arrogant. For most normal folk (me included), spending 3-5 large on a watch is a huge purchase, even 500-1000€ is a lot.

Now if they want to enjoy the hobby too, for most people this means to buy one watch, enjoy it, save up a bit, sell the watch and with the combined saved amount buy the next watch.
They might be able to afford the watch, at retail, but they can't afford a 30-50% hit in depreciation if they decide to sell it.
So I totally get it if someone asks me if I think that a certain watch will hold it's value.
I don't think that this question tarnishes the watch collecting hobby.
Quite the contrary in my opinion.
A value cautious buyer might be able to stay and participate in the hobby for longer if he's able to sell the watch he bought for what he paid or even a bit more and buy more watches as the result of that.
If this enables more people to join the hobby of watch collecting and appreciating mechanical watches I'm all for it.

Please do not mistake this with a flipper, who's sole intend is to make money on watches, without actually caring for what he's buying as long as he can make money on it the second he get's it and flips it.

Cheers,

Max

arcadelt · Nov 12, 2018

Speedmasterfan88
First it would be interesting to know what the inital question from the OP was.

The OP's question was (unsurprisingly) about value. However, I wasn’t posting for an in depth analysis on every point I made, but more that I was lamenting on the loss of what felt like a simpler time in the hobby.

Has the watch collecting hobby been tarnished by money?

arcadelt

NT931

bigsom

Ninja2789

ATWG

jmazpiazu

lustrousaurus

bigsom

paulw

sdre

jumpingsecond

ext1

oddboy

boogedyboo

Steve88M3

Rman

STANDY

arcadelt

Speedmasterfan88

arcadelt

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