Business is not booming for Hodinkee

Posts
8,096
Likes
58,221
Cool beans!

In their third act, they are now an insurance agency with a few cool articles about watches on their Agency Front Page.
 
Posts
3,237
Likes
6,532
some of the best content, including new discoveries in watch history, have been written by volunteer sleuth enthusiasts
with an esoteric knowledge about the specific time pieces they have been focusing on and know best!

Exactly. And those volunteer sleuth enthusiasts spend countless hours doing something that they have a passion for, and any Corporation defines time as money. 😉

What (we) see as time well spent, a corporation may just see as spent.
 
Posts
7,624
Likes
21,860
The Ukraine war did them in. It ended the flow of free money, and since they had reduced their market to a narrow sliver of the top 0.1%, they were left alone when it all came crashing down and even the very rich were more interested in cash than in watches.
Turns out the more middle class has something to offer, it’s called safety in numbers.
 
Posts
13,164
Likes
52,298
The Ukraine war did them in. It ended the flow of free money, and since they had reduced their market to a narrow sliver of the top 0.1%, they were left alone when it all came crashing down and even the very rich were more interested in cash than in watches.
Turns out the more middle class has something to offer, it’s called safety in numbers.
That’s a very good insight Syrte. They really began focusing on the unobtainable. I don’t know that I concur with the war, but certainly the collapse of crypto was destructive to their model. Do you mean rich Russians and Ukrainians stopped buying? Just saw that LMVH warned today.
 
Posts
16,307
Likes
44,939
The Ukraine war did them in. It ended the flow of free money, and since they had reduced their market to a narrow sliver of the top 0.1%, they were left alone when it all came crashing down and even the very rich were more interested in cash than in watches.
Turns out the more middle class has something to offer, it’s called safety in numbers.
This correlation didn’t even occur to me but makes perfect sense. The ripple effect of that conflict has had far more impact on the global economy than I see anyone reporting.
 
Posts
2,056
Likes
4,188
A lot of stock sitting on their used watches section too. If it were me I'd have a sale, dump the stock, suck up the loss/break even and move on.

If they're not replenishing stock they'll end up having to flog what hasn't sold as a job lot in a year or two/three anyway....if they really want to turn the page better take the pain pill now IMHO.
A sale sounds great to me! I love saving. Unless they just fake the prices in the sale like they used to. Walmart style. This $999 thing we sold for $799 last week is now "on sale for $798"!
 
Posts
2,056
Likes
4,188
The Ukraine war did them in. It ended the flow of free money, and since they had reduced their market to a narrow sliver of the top 0.1%, they were left alone when it all came crashing down and even the very rich were more interested in cash than in watches.
Turns out the more middle class has something to offer, it’s called safety in numbers.

Also the fact that there was 20% global inflation, the Fed bumped interest rates "transitorily", and financial institutions stopped giving away money for free.
 
Posts
7,624
Likes
21,860
In Europe we had a constant stream of reporting about how the Ukraine war was impacting our lives. Heightened prices of energy causing inflation, increased costs of food and home loans etc, even the supply of kitchen or bathroom tiles or mustard were impacted due to key ingredients coming from Ukraine.
I suspect many players in the luxury market thought themselves above the fray and immune to world events.

The problem is that with all that comes the political reckoning Putin has been playing for. Hodinkee are but a very microscopic and negligible casualty in all of that.

Do you mean rich Russians and Ukrainians stopped buying?
No, I just mean that the war sparked a rise in interest rates which have completely changed the way the rich worldwide allocate assets. Watches were seen as an investment, they still maybe but no longer the way they were. For years on OF people have been saying “wait until interest ratea rise”— well that’s where we are now.
Edited:
 
Posts
13,164
Likes
52,298
In Europe we had a constant stream of reporting about how the Ukraine war was impacting our lives. Heightened prices of energy causing inflation, increased costs of food and home loans etc, even the supply of kitchen or bathroom tiles or mustard were impacted due to key ingredients coming from Ukraine.
I suspect many players in the luxury market thought themselves above the fray and immune to world events.

The problem is that with all that comes the political reckoning Putin has been playing for. Hodinkee are but a very microscopic and negligible casualty in all of that.


No, I just mean that the war sparked a rise in interest rates which has completely change the way the rich worldwide allocate assets. Watches were seen as an investment, they still maybe but no longer the way they were. For years on OF people have been saying “wait until interest ratea rise”— well that’s where we are now.
I had forgotten that the war has had local economic impact, especially with energy, food and supply chain.
 
Posts
16,307
Likes
44,939
I had forgotten that the war has had local economic impact, especially with energy, food and supply chain.
I think a lot of people in the US (including myself apparently) forget how much we depend on imported food supplies, raw materials and “parts” (like the aforementioned ceramic tiles) and tend to blame our politicians for our woes and fight among each-other (something we are very good at) as we tend to be far more insular than we want to believe (our media is a major part of this- local conflicts garner more hits). Our headlines focus on major news cycle events of the day rather than the slow burn that has become the war in Ukraine- it’s been relegated to bottom of the page news particularly since the Middle East conflict jumped to the middle of the page.

Our friends in Europe are far more aware since it’s happening much closer, the impacts of supply far more localized and the potential for the conflict to spread to neighboring states a far more vivid reality. The ripple effect in full display with Europe at the center and the US at the periphery complaining about the choppy water but not accounting for the cause.
 
Posts
2,452
Likes
4,226
I think a lot of people in the US (including myself apparently) forget how much we depend on imported food supplies, raw materials and “parts” (like the aforementioned ceramic tiles) and tend to blame our politicians for our woes and fight among each-other (something we are very good at) as we tend to be far more insular than we want to believe (our media is a major part of this- local conflicts garner more hits). Our headlines focus on major news cycle events of the day rather than the slow burn that has become the war in Ukraine- it’s been relegated to bottom of the page news particularly since the Middle East conflict jumped to the middle of the page.

Our friends in Europe are far more aware since it’s happening much closer, the impacts of supply far more localized and the potential for the conflict to spread to neighboring states a far more vivid reality. The ripple effect in full display with Europe at the center and the US at the periphery complaining about the choppy water but not accounting for the cause.

Yes but when it comes to the world wide economic effects of war it isn't always just our politicians that are to blame, sometimes it's someone else's politicians who are responsible, along with religious ratbags and the greed of those who take advantage of the situation for profits......corporate greed, religion and politics are always to blame!
 
Posts
16,307
Likes
44,939
Yes but when it comes to the world wide economic effects of war it isn't always just our politicians that are to blame, sometimes it's someone else's politicians who are responsible, along with religious ratbags and the greed of those who take advantage of the situation for profits......corporate greed, religion and politics are always to blame!
And you get the poor fuckers like us that make up the 95% of the world who just want to sleep at night in a safe place, enjoy a full belly, not worry we are going to get shot, not feel the crushing fears and hostilities of others and occasionally buy a nice watch without feeling like we just got taken.
 
Posts
7,624
Likes
21,860
I had forgotten that the war has had local economic impact, especially with energy, food and supply chain.

heck, it’s like the oil shock of 1973- before the full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was the main supplier of natural gas to Europe. Add sanctions, and suddenly the price of global energy goes up.
And with it, the global costs of manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, construction, housing,you name it -worldwide.
I’m sure China’s previous economic slowdown, Covid aftermath and huge amounts of govt debt incurred with the sub-prime crisis are big contributing factors but Ukraine is a watershed moment.
Edited: