I think we are going to see the prices of UM's stabilise to relatively sensible levels, with some exceptional examples still fetching high prices if they manage to project an aura of originality onto people like me. (For me, a "high price" for a UM is $40,000)
The auction watch is close, very close, but while I think it is overall an original watch except I think the hand could have been added to it.
Things I like about the auction watch is that it looks owned, and has an original crown. The patina or decay looks commensurate, BUT the hand doesn't look quite right. If it is a fraudulent seller, (surely not in Miami) then he has taken an original watch in the right serial and added a Vietnamese hand and thrown it into an anonymous auction.
We can go off into the weeds about UM hands, but if it looks correct and has an extract, I accept it. From experience, the hand should be slightly red, and reach the outer edge of the minute track. Any deviation from this means it is probably not original (the auction example is short). Then we have to consider, is a perfect reproduction acceptable? If I cannot tell the difference, then yes. If perfect reproductions are available, (and I see no reason why they are not) then we look to the serial, and take a view on future values.
With the possibility of the hand being repro, the price has to fall, as there will be many more examples offered - until the museum returns with an extract service that will confirm an orange hand - if they ever do.
That said, experienced collectors will look at a potential UM and get a feeling whether it is right or wrong. When you have two of those collectors in an auction, that's when sparks fly.
Here is an example of one I bought last summer. The seller was a storage unit salvage picker, and he found it in an abandoned unit. We spoke over a long period, and it transpired he did this for fun, and gave all the proceeds to a local children's charity. The unit this watch came from was full of the usual junk, and he said that in this hobby of his, he had learned to be ruthless. In my discussions with him, he let slip that he might have thrown away the box, papers and bracelet, not realising the value of them. He was used to selling children's toys and old furniture.
Here is the watch, de cased. I think its one of the best.
(the unit was untouched for at least two decades).