Winner's Curse – How often do you win at auction?

Fascinating read. I was in the hall where the pipe organs are (We were hanging a wall sconce that I restored.) So I was not able to log in. But I did skim things found this thread and spent my free time reading that article.

The people I was with are also auction nuts. So I was reading sections out loud. This sconce was purchased by my friend at auction. (there are more for sale for 18,000USD -- he did not pay that much.) The thing is made like a Hollywood prop out of resin. One of the bezels got broken as there was no way to change the light bulbs in it. So I made a new bezel out of plaster. This thing has been lying around broken for years. I have always wanted to put color changing LEDs in it.




The article seemed more aimed at auctions for profit. I and I think my friends like auctions to get things that really are not available any other way. (The stained glass window lamp behind the ladder is also one of my friends auction scores.)

As for frequency of winning. I would guess for myself about 90 percent of the time, I get what I want. My strategy is to bid late. And know what your 'regret' limit is. Sometimes I forget to bid. With online auctions I like to bid in the last 30 minutes. Sometimes in the last minute. When eBay was new and I had access to a T1 line I would snipe in the last seconds.

I did miss out on some goodwill bulk camera lens auctions where I missed by a few dollars. I did a rebound bid on ebay for a much more recent digital interchangeable lens mirrorless camera. Cheap as the seller said it did not power on. I bid early to my regret limit. Auction did not move till the final minutes, then someone started bidding in minimal increments 1 per minute. The auction timed out and I was the high bidder at a fraction of what these sell for.

I work with microelectronics, So I was researching this camera. Found that the camera could go into a deep sleep mode (probably to keep dead batteries from catching fire.) So when I got the camera I did a reboot reset and it booted up and prompted to set the date and time. So I got lucky.

The watch and clock club would hold silent auctions. One would write down the time and bid amount on a sheet of paper. Twards the end of the meeting a whistle would blow. That is how I got quite a few of my watches and tools.

I do seem to be suffering from a bad case of auctionitis with the cameras and lenses. It does get addicting and I seem to be doing command-R a lot.

There is also something not discussed in the article (which seems to relate more to ponzi scheme modeling.) Is one can get a lot of information from auctions. Prices on eBay are insane. I have a dozen chronographs, mostly missing cases or case parts. I got them I I was planning to repaint the dials. There are a lot of auctions for these cases, most going for 100USD. I won one similar to what I have, what I could use more of for 10USD. Another auction I forgot to bid on, was relisted this morning. Probably just as well I did not bid.

-j

I regularly visit auction sites. My win rate is somewhere south of 10% and maybe as low as 5%. Since almost everything I bid on are luxuries I do not actually need, I set my limit, put in a bid for that amount and walk away. Very seldom do I go over what I initially set as that limit.

On the flip side of that, there are certain books or papers I'll need for my research that have been out of print for years and tracking a copy down on an auction site is sometimes the quickest and easiest way to acquire them. In those instances I usually am willing to spend what I need to. Luckily the number of people looking for this type of material is typically very small and there is often no competition for them.

Make sure that you are really logged in before you bid at the last minute. I lost on something I did not want, but was willing to take a gamble to see what would happen. Auction fever I think they call it.

-j

0% if I can’t buy it, and buy it now. It’s not getting bought.

100% of my auction type fun comes from the limited release drops in another hobby where you have 200 people trying to buy 20 products at a set price. Win some loose some.

Well goodwill is no place to find omega watches. I did some test bids over the last few days and lost them all. I was getting some great deals on cameras and lenses. Subject matter does remain the relevent factor. There really are not any people interested in APS cameras. It really was the worst product ever released. On the other hand it did no take more than a few months to build a comprehensive collection of APS cameras, and picked up a couple of usable digital backs as a side effect.

I really do not need any more Omega watches, still I was surprised how few ladies movements are in the box I have only 3. Really would not mind adding a 480 sometime as I have a lot of spare parts for that caliber.

-j