I sometimes thing about this... We live in an age where vintage watches are being found by families whose parents or grandparents pass away or by estate sale buyers or other ignorants - but in how many decades will that age end? Surely some time in the future, as more and more watches leave the hands of families and end up in the care of watch collectors, finding a "deal" or "barn find" will become increasingly uncommon.

Before the internet age, it was even easier to find excellent deals, with the lack of information at hand to the ignorant seller - but we're still living in an age of transfer between original owners/estate sellers and collectors.

When will this second smaller golden age end?

You can focus on golden age watches, from the 1940's-1960's, or an even wider range.

 

It will never end, but may work in cycles. There's always going to be an old watch that a grandson or granddaughter finds while settling the estate. The watches of today will be those 'golden age' watches in 40 years.

 

If I should happen to 'go' suddenly, there'd be a bunch of barn finds in my estate. my wife has no idea.

...don't get any ideas guys!

 

The pool of vintage watches from each decade will get smaller as time goes,but newer vintage will always be aplenty.

 

The flow of "modern" watches into "vintage" will be constant and always - but the age of information is new and ever growing. Most good deals come from people who didn't grow up in the age of the internet. That segment of society continues to diminish.

 

I have often wondered about this myself. It seems that vintage watches of interest today were not ordinary when new. I imagine the buyers of watches in the 40's through the 60's were better established financially speaking, and possibly of a mature age when these special watches were originally purchased. So original owners are quite old now if they are still living.
So many factors come in to play, it's really difficult to ascertain when the "golden age" will begin to fade.

 

I think there will always be deals to be found on something. Cars, watches anyone with an internet connection can find an approximate value for, but the next big thing in collecting is always just around the corner
Besides, I agree that some modern watches will become more sought-after than others as time goes by - just like watches of old! I, for one, look forward to the future especially now that the "Hodinkee effect" has reignited interest in mechanical watches, not just by consumers but by watch marques as well....

 

Two issues at play here from my point of view...

One is the "knowledge factor" and I agree that the pool of people who have no knowledge of watches, and are not inclined to use the internet to find out what something is worth before they sell it, is getting smaller. So I think exceptional deals for items with an established value will be harder to find.

Second is the watches themselves. Although the "watches of today" will certainly become vintage, the number of mechanical watches being produced today is quite different from the time when that's all there was. I'm sure somewhere in the future the Apple watch might be considered a collectible vintage piece, but the sheer volume of mechanical watches being made today is tiny compared to what it once was during the age when quartz didn't exist. So the pool of vintage watches that most here would consider "collectible" will be smaller than what it is now.

Of course this assumes that mechanical watches will be collectible in the future...I think taking today's rules for collectability and assuming they will apply in the future is not necessarily a slam dunk...

Interesting topic!

Cheers, Al

 

Agree with all you've written Archer. The 40's to 60's watches available will get smaller as they disappear. Either into collections or get broken for spares or chucked away by people who don't know what they've got. The number we can collect at a decent price will definitely contract, just as it has in the old car world. When I was a youngster you could get a decent 1920's RR for a few hundred pounds and I was once offered a 1930's aston for nothing. Think of the price difference now and that will be the % difference in a short time for interesting watches.

 

Well, don't forget some people have changing tastes. They may sell their '40s-'60s watches in a few years as they move on to different models... I sold my Heuer 3647T last month after realizing that it just didn't get much wrist time anymore. Was my first major sale too, who knows where things are going!

 

I think that as more money comes into the market it will generate more interest amongst those people that inflated the old car market. They'll be investors as much as collectors and I think that's already happening. Your Heuer could be too expensive to expensive to buy back if you change your mind in a few years.

 

I fully expect that Heuer to be too expensive to buy back not too long from now But I don't purchase to invest - I purchase primarily to wear, with a slight eye towards resaleability as I've been burned on watches in the past. Besides, I used the funding from the sale of the Heuer to purchase something I particularly like, which will also likely appreciate, and will be shown here soon....

 

Once the China thirst for New brand name watches turns to vintage. We are going to have a lot of extra people in the sand pit...

 

Is it Omega's turn? (old blog post, but may be informative to newbs like me)

http://nickhacko.blogspot.ca/2012/05/tough-times-ahead-for-collectors-of.html?m=1

Not sure I share Mr Hacko's view, but then, I don't dabble in Rolex.

..not quite the same as OP's question, but relevant I think for the same reasons.