Will vintage wrist watches lose value in the next 10, 20, 30 years ?

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I’m at the age where vintage watches have lots of appeal but I also have an Apple Watch because of the apps. I’m a soccer ref so it’s great for keeping track of games. My grandfather and uncle were watchmakers so I grew up around them and have had a mechanical watch since I was very young. Back then they made kid sized watches. Mine was a Timex. Anyway, I hope the younger generation keeps up the tradition of mechanical watches. My 12 year old has become interested because of the mechanics and if fascinated that all those moving parts tell time.
 
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With the exception of a few watches that will always command high end prices that most here will never afford I think the best rhe rest of us
Can hope for is to get back what you paid over maybe seven to ten years
That said there is always the odd chance of finding something that will make money over time
Buy what gives you pleasure and cherish it
 
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When it comes to leaving something for my daughters, what I hope to offer them is a half way ok example of how you can develop interests, even in something peripheral to "real life", invest your time in it, share it with others, know what you're talking about, have opinions and be able to defend them or articulate them. Also, to be able to appreciate things that aren't essential to survival, for whatever reason, like falling into a Picasso, or floating away on a simple little sonata.

If my girls make money on my watches, that'd .e awesome. If they kept them in the family, that'd be awesomer. But there are other things I can give them that are worth more.
 
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When it comes to leaving something for my daughters, what I hope to offer them is a half way ok example of how you can develop interests, even in something peripheral to "real life", invest your time in it, share it with others, know what you're talking about, have opinions and be able to defend them or articulate them. Also, to be able to appreciate things that aren't essential to survival, for whatever reason, like falling into a Picasso, or floating away on a simple little sonata.

If my girls make money on my watches, that'd .e awesome. If they kept them in the family, that'd be awesomer. But there are other things I can give them that are worth more.
Leave them a few nice examples, and sell the rest. How many you decide to leave them is the question. I like your perspective !
 
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Mine will get one each, they've already picked them out... that is, unless I haven't sold all of them by then, in which case they will get more. 😁
 
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Mine will get one each, they've already picked them out... that is, unless I haven't sold all of them by then, in which case they will get more. 😁
Awesome !
 
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Mine will get one each, they've already picked them out... that is, unless I haven't sold all of them by then, in which case they will get more. 😁
I’m curious, what did they pick?
 
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I’m curious, what did they pick?
7 year old asked for 105.003-63, which I wear a lot.
6 year old asked for 2914-5
5 year old asked for 2998-62 . She likes the hands.

Good taste I'd say!
 
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7 year old asked for 105.003-63, which I wear a lot.
6 year old asked for 2914-5
5 year old asked for 2998-62 . She likes the hands.

Good taste I'd say!

for sure!
 
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7 year old asked for 105.003-63, which I wear a lot.
6 year old asked for 2914-5
5 year old asked for 2998-62 . She likes the hands.

Good taste I'd say!
Goddamn, apparently taste can be passed down!!!
 
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this is an interesting theoretical discussion

tastes *definitely* change. american furniture was once highly collectible and lost something like 90% of its value inflation adjusted over the past 30 years

similarly, american art / old masters have fallen completely out of favor vs. contemporary and modern art

that said. . i think the trend actually favors vintage watches. yes, millenials don't seem to care about mechanical watches. . that is until they have some success / make some money / hit some life events. .then they all want that rolex that everyone else covets

i am heartened that people like ed sheerhan, john mayer, ellen degeneres, jay-z, and ryan seacrest all of whom rock some spectacular watches (new and vintage). as long as the trendsetters endorse mechanical watches i think we are all bueno

😀
 
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Yes there are millions of vintage watches and only a small percent Auction Houses will even consider auctioning ? It's just not any vintage watch ?


You seem to have left yourself with (2) choices:

1. Vintage watches

2 Gold Bullion

So, why not combine both and stick to solid gold vintage?? I know it seems like all the action is in steel sports watches but that couldn’t be further from the truth.

My personal experience is that some of the best watches I own are in white gold and red gold. Yellow gold, not as much.

I know watch collectors like to be high minded purists (I used to be that way) but the simple truth of the matter is that some of the best physical investments I have are indeed vintage watches. I’ve got more than a few watches that are worth 10 or 15x’s what I paid for them. Perhaps the dollar amounts aren’t huge but the returns are.

One note: I never set out to make money on watches - it just sort of happened.
Edited:
 
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I agree with some guys here saying fakes/frankens/redials are even more prevalent today and I also agree with the guys that say the the internet has armed us collectors with more info than ever that we can use to authenticate vintage pieces.

Unfortunately, the proliferation of this information is a double edged sword and unethical sellers can use this data to make their fake examples even better. Supposedly Panerai fakes have gotten so good that there are stories where ADs themselves are unable to distinguish between a fake vs. the real deal.

Having said this, I am so very grateful for sites like OF and a community of experts like everyone on this forum who help out a guy like me who is just trying to learn more about vintage horology and grow my own humble collection.

Anyways, this is all a side discussion to OP's question at hand. This is just a hobby to me personally (although one I feel passionately about) and as a hobby, my philosophy is that any money committed to watches is purely recreational, not for investment purposes. Therefore any money that I lose to depreciation of my assets (watches) I should be okay with, and any money I gain via appreciation is just a lucky windfall. It should all just be one of many factors that goes into why I am passionate about horology.
 
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You seem have left yourself with (2) choices:

1. Vintage watches

2 Gold Bullion

So, why not combine both and stick to solid gold vintage?? I know it seems like all the action is in steel sports watches but that couldn’t be further from the truth.

Maybe personal experience is that some of the best watches I own are in white gold and red gold. Yellow gold, not as much.
I do have some solid gold watches, the amount of gold vs value of the watch is disproportionate.
A solid gold dress watch even a heavy case one would only scrap for a third of the value of the watch.
 
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I do have some solid gold watches, the amount of gold vs value of the watch is disproportionate.
A solid gold dress watch even a heavy case one would only scrap for a third of the value of the watch.


Perhaps you’re buying the wrong watches?
 
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I’ll give you some examples of the right watches:

Rolex President: I’ve (3), (2) in WG and (1) in YG.

The first one I bought was from a sales trader I used to deal with who was having a bad month. I paid 2500 (early 90’s when I was a young buck). The next two were in the late 90’s - 3750 and 4000.

Each watch weighs around 160 grams sans movement. 160 x .75 x 1300 p/ounce = a little less than 5000

So, I’m good to go. I also have a platinum but that hasn’t done as well because plat used to be a lot more than gold. However, it’s still worth only a little less than I paid for it in metal weight (plat is heavier) and a lot more in mkt value.

I’ve also got a ton of dress watches like Gueblin, UG and Movado (and, Omega!!) which I paid no more than 750 USD which is less than the gold weight value.
 
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Heck, the watch I’m wearing tonight is a 284 Compax.

It’s bi-metal and I bet the solid gold bezel is worth more than I paid for a complete set watch (600)

A 284 just sold on eBay for $2605 tonight in a no reserve auction.
 
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Depends when you purchased the watches as well ? I get your point, but it's hard to find scrap value fold watches that are desirable IMHO !
Thanks for your POV.
 
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He’s got to wear something when the tech watch is charging 😉
In summer here in SE Aust it can be a long wait for it to charge when the unreliable power grid crashes because the wind won't blow. 🫨
The future value of wristwatches might be their ability to tell the time when everything else fails.