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Will vintage wrist watches lose value in the next 10, 20, 30 years ?
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STANDY
·Even though I realize nobody actually has any actionable insight about the future of vintage watch prices, I can't stop myself from following these threads with interest. 😁
Nobody has actionable insight. 📖 Best bit of actionable insight on the forum that rings true 6 years after it was written by @MSNWatch 😉
https://omegaforums.net/threads/condition-condition-condition-and-other-pieces-of-advice.1716/
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Larry S
··Color Commentator for the Hyperbole.I have a collection because the darned things fascinate me and sometimes I question my sanity over this “hobby”. I use quotations because I will never be under the hood fixing these things. Got some great ones, some good ones, some ok ones. None were bought with the mortgage cash, food or college fund money. My family has not suffered. All can be converted to cash again. Did I get into this at the wrong time? Yup. Wish I’d done this when as a dealer once told me: “you could buy a mixing bowl full of vintage watches for 25 bucks.” As I retire in April the question will arise, how big should the fleet be? I will nibble round the edges before hitting the core. No watch with sentiment attached to it will go. I sold a winder the other day via PM. I was a bit rushed due to work stress, over packed it and sold it too cheap. That won’t happen again. It takes more effort / focus IMO to sell something well than to buy it well.
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southtexas
·Sorry, that was a bit flippant, I am sure you enjoy them. Incidently my son is 10 and my thoughts have been, what if something happens to me??. How would my wife ever liquidate my collection (other than my hierloom watch that is!!). She has no idea of value or avenues. Dealers here in Oz will only offer 50% of value at best.
I’ve contemplated this in the past. I have provided her a detailed list of what we have (and current values) and she also knows that she is to contact a certain collector friend who will help her get top dollar for our watches should something happen to me and she choose to sell them.
Plus I’d recommend a boat load of life insurance.
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Larry S
··Color Commentator for the Hyperbole.I’ve contemplated this in the past. I have provided her a detailed list
Plus I’d recommend a boat load of life insurance.
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Ninja2789
·I'll be the first to admit I haven't been in this crazy hobby for very long. Maybe 3 years at the most? As a result, I haven't gone through the ups and downs that I know has existed in watch collecting over the past 20-30 years.
However, my two cents is that, no matter where the price of this hobby is trending, watch collecting is in and of itself an exercise in non-logical thinking. As others have mentioned, manual watches do not tell time with greater accuracy, costs a fortune to fix if broken, costs a fortune to maintain if not broken, and can costs a fortune to wear if lume flakes, dials crack, cases get dinged.
As a result, the more I collect the more I realize that you have to buy at the intersection of what you love and can afford. I'm personally in love with the Heuer Camaros and have seen prices drop 20-30%. Does that suck? A little. But then I put the damn thing on my wrist and realize "man, this is a pretty sick looking watch" and it doesn't matter as much.
Earlier in my collecting I was almost obsessed about resale value and whether what I was buying would be able to get me "ahead". Now I realize that was just a silly way to try and justify this hobby by counting my theoretical gains against my total spend.
Now, this doesn't mean you shouldn't exercise prudence when deciding on your next watch purchase. Certainly I'd be a bit more hesitant with the volatility in the economy and world political markets. However, the uncertainty of the markets should really be more a justification for us to focus on what we really love. If that special watch comes along and you get the feeling that "god damn it I want to buy it regardless of what happens" then I think you've got a winner.
However, my two cents is that, no matter where the price of this hobby is trending, watch collecting is in and of itself an exercise in non-logical thinking. As others have mentioned, manual watches do not tell time with greater accuracy, costs a fortune to fix if broken, costs a fortune to maintain if not broken, and can costs a fortune to wear if lume flakes, dials crack, cases get dinged.
As a result, the more I collect the more I realize that you have to buy at the intersection of what you love and can afford. I'm personally in love with the Heuer Camaros and have seen prices drop 20-30%. Does that suck? A little. But then I put the damn thing on my wrist and realize "man, this is a pretty sick looking watch" and it doesn't matter as much.
Earlier in my collecting I was almost obsessed about resale value and whether what I was buying would be able to get me "ahead". Now I realize that was just a silly way to try and justify this hobby by counting my theoretical gains against my total spend.
Now, this doesn't mean you shouldn't exercise prudence when deciding on your next watch purchase. Certainly I'd be a bit more hesitant with the volatility in the economy and world political markets. However, the uncertainty of the markets should really be more a justification for us to focus on what we really love. If that special watch comes along and you get the feeling that "god damn it I want to buy it regardless of what happens" then I think you've got a winner.
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Reddy_Kilowatt
·<insert link to stupid thread from TRF discussing the "watch portfolio value tracker" app>
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rolokr
·Wow this has really turned into great thread !!!!!
I thank OF members for all of there input and insights on this topic. Let's at least enjoy the vintage watches we keep if we decide to down size our collections, and hopefully we get good return from the ones we sell !
I thank OF members for all of there input and insights on this topic. Let's at least enjoy the vintage watches we keep if we decide to down size our collections, and hopefully we get good return from the ones we sell !
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Beepos
·I'm 26. I wonder about this sometimes, as my vintage watch collection has grown from 0 to around 10 in just three years.
I never was a regular watch wearer till I graduated college. Prior to that, just used my iPhone, despite having a nice JLC. I wear a watch now everyday, and have found it's a lot less noticeable to glance at your watch than pull out your phone. I've now spent far more money on this hobby than I'm proud to admit. I love winding up my old mechanicals, and even the two modern automatics I have feel very solid
My SO also does have an Apple Watch. I can see the appeal in it, but currently have no interest in one. It does feel a lot more fragile than a mechanical watch, and I am already plugged into the internet enough that having a watch that gets messages would drive me nuts. Currently, there is no benefit to having a smart watch for me. BUT, I fully acknowledge that this can change- the iPhone is barely 12 years old, and that kicked off the smartphone market. I still remember my first smartphone; it was a revolution compared to the flipphone I had. At this point, smartwatches lack that revolutionary edge for me. But if smartwatch makers introduce such a killer app, I would likely switch.
I am only one of three people in my age range who collects mechanical watches that I personally know from outside the watch community. The vast majority of my friends give zero fucks about mechanical watches, and would be horrified if they knew how much a vintage day date, let alone something like a Paul Newman, cost. But, I have noticed that people just a little older than me, who are starting to get married etc, tend to get a Rolex/Omega for their wedding gifts, so who knows?
I never was a regular watch wearer till I graduated college. Prior to that, just used my iPhone, despite having a nice JLC. I wear a watch now everyday, and have found it's a lot less noticeable to glance at your watch than pull out your phone. I've now spent far more money on this hobby than I'm proud to admit. I love winding up my old mechanicals, and even the two modern automatics I have feel very solid
My SO also does have an Apple Watch. I can see the appeal in it, but currently have no interest in one. It does feel a lot more fragile than a mechanical watch, and I am already plugged into the internet enough that having a watch that gets messages would drive me nuts. Currently, there is no benefit to having a smart watch for me. BUT, I fully acknowledge that this can change- the iPhone is barely 12 years old, and that kicked off the smartphone market. I still remember my first smartphone; it was a revolution compared to the flipphone I had. At this point, smartwatches lack that revolutionary edge for me. But if smartwatch makers introduce such a killer app, I would likely switch.
I am only one of three people in my age range who collects mechanical watches that I personally know from outside the watch community. The vast majority of my friends give zero fucks about mechanical watches, and would be horrified if they knew how much a vintage day date, let alone something like a Paul Newman, cost. But, I have noticed that people just a little older than me, who are starting to get married etc, tend to get a Rolex/Omega for their wedding gifts, so who knows?
Edited:
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southtexas
·<insert link to stupid thread from TRF discussing the "watch portfolio value tracker" app>
I haven’t seen this thread, do you have a link?
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Beepos
·Another thing I will add though: The barrier to entry for mechanical watches is getting too damn high.
My grandpa bought a rolex in the 70s for 150 dollars, when he was stationed in Germany. It was expensive, sure. But the same watch, a sub, now costs over 7500, which would pay rent in my large American city's very nice apartment for 4 months! And while Rolex, Omega, Patek, AP, and a few others will be fine, the "entry" level market is honestly not doing well.
I bought my first mechanical watch in 2011, when I was barely 19.It was a modern JLC from the 90s, which I somehow won a ebay auction for 800 dollars. That was 2 months rent, and was for a used watch! But it got me hooked into this hobby. It's rare to find such good deals now, and while vintage used to be a great market for beginners, there are so many fakes and frankens now that unless you are DEEP in this hobby, you can easily get conned.
My grandpa bought a rolex in the 70s for 150 dollars, when he was stationed in Germany. It was expensive, sure. But the same watch, a sub, now costs over 7500, which would pay rent in my large American city's very nice apartment for 4 months! And while Rolex, Omega, Patek, AP, and a few others will be fine, the "entry" level market is honestly not doing well.
I bought my first mechanical watch in 2011, when I was barely 19.It was a modern JLC from the 90s, which I somehow won a ebay auction for 800 dollars. That was 2 months rent, and was for a used watch! But it got me hooked into this hobby. It's rare to find such good deals now, and while vintage used to be a great market for beginners, there are so many fakes and frankens now that unless you are DEEP in this hobby, you can easily get conned.
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·@Beepos there was just as many fakes in the early days
https://omegaforums.net/threads/don...omegas-post-them-here-not-for-questions.6235/
How many of these have we seen over the years. It would have been hard when they were new and shiny also
Good source for wages in 1970
https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1970-1979
Let’s look at Texas below
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/4655/item/498637
https://omegaforums.net/threads/don...omegas-post-them-here-not-for-questions.6235/
How many of these have we seen over the years. It would have been hard when they were new and shiny also
Good source for wages in 1970
https://libraryguides.missouri.edu/pricesandwages/1970-1979
Let’s look at Texas below
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/4655/item/498637
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queriver
·@Beepos Thank you for sharing your POV. It’s interesting to read the perspective of someone your age. One question: if Apple or someone else brings out a killer app/s for a smart watch and you decide to switch to one as your daily wearer, do you think you would keep collecting vintage watches or would your interest wane?
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Beepos
·@queriver , Honestly, I dont know
My gut instinct is that I’m too far in this hobby to truly ever give it up. I like mechanica watches too much, and even on days I cannot wear a watch, I still typicaly put one on at home. I’m currently saving up for my first Speedy, a 2998- so i’m deep in this hobby
But should a smartwatch become an essential part of my life, it would be hard to justify spending the large amounts needed for good examples of vintage watches, so perhaps my purchases would become smaller and less frequent?
In defence of mechanical watches I will say that most people in my generation do not wear smart watches. And I do not anticipate any “killer” apps currently- but who knows?
My gut instinct is that I’m too far in this hobby to truly ever give it up. I like mechanica watches too much, and even on days I cannot wear a watch, I still typicaly put one on at home. I’m currently saving up for my first Speedy, a 2998- so i’m deep in this hobby
But should a smartwatch become an essential part of my life, it would be hard to justify spending the large amounts needed for good examples of vintage watches, so perhaps my purchases would become smaller and less frequent?
In defence of mechanical watches I will say that most people in my generation do not wear smart watches. And I do not anticipate any “killer” apps currently- but who knows?
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Beepos
·@STANDY
No doubt! Fakes/frankes/redials have always existed. And thanks yo the internet, wonderful forums such as this one, and even blogs like Hodinkee, far more info now exists than ever before
But far more fakes are around too, and my general sense is that the wuality of fakes has improved. I recently saw a thread here where a beat up DON bezel with a dent was shown before and after “restoration”, and I couldnt believe my eyes. When bezels alone ago for over $5k, theres so mcuh incentive to create frankens/redials. The other case that comes to mind was the 2913, which really only got discovered because Kox isa bloodhound and because the auction was high profile
https://omegaforums.net/threads/2913-fap-from-phillips---from-swan-to-ugly-duckling.66523/
No doubt! Fakes/frankes/redials have always existed. And thanks yo the internet, wonderful forums such as this one, and even blogs like Hodinkee, far more info now exists than ever before
But far more fakes are around too, and my general sense is that the wuality of fakes has improved. I recently saw a thread here where a beat up DON bezel with a dent was shown before and after “restoration”, and I couldnt believe my eyes. When bezels alone ago for over $5k, theres so mcuh incentive to create frankens/redials. The other case that comes to mind was the 2913, which really only got discovered because Kox isa bloodhound and because the auction was high profile
https://omegaforums.net/threads/2913-fap-from-phillips---from-swan-to-ugly-duckling.66523/
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VintageWatchIta
·Interesting thread, I think that all depends on the brand. Honestly, I don't see vintage Rolex or Omega going down in the short future.
Different could be for other brands, like UG and Longines. It depends also on the diameter, style (extra-flat are not enjoyable as in years 70-80), but especially on brand. I'm not sure that UG tricompax or unicompax will keep their value or increase, but I'm pretty sure that a GMT 16710 or a submariner 16610 will increase it.
Different could be for other brands, like UG and Longines. It depends also on the diameter, style (extra-flat are not enjoyable as in years 70-80), but especially on brand. I'm not sure that UG tricompax or unicompax will keep their value or increase, but I'm pretty sure that a GMT 16710 or a submariner 16610 will increase it.
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Edward53
·I can think of four aspects to watch collecting.
1. It's "cool".
2. Nostalgia and historical.
3. Artistic (the make-up of the dial and form of the case).
4. Engineering (the intricacies of the movement and the overall quality).
(I am disregarding investment as it has nothing to do with genuine collecting.)
1 is ephemeral and unpredictable. So is 2 albeit less so. 3 and 4 are immutable. Tastes come and go but there will always be people who appreciate beauty, fine engineering and quality of manufacture for their own sake. A good dial is as much a work of art as a good painting, a good case ditto to a good sculpture and a good movement is these two and more. Fine mechanical watches represent a branch of engineering now widely replaced by plastic and electronics, and enough time has passed since the quartz revolution to see them for their intrinsic quality irrespective of current fashions.
So I don't think watch collecting will ever die. It may still be at fever pitch and climbing, but that will settle down in a few years once the media find something new to talk about. Some brands and models will fall by the wayside but fine examples of high-quality watches will always be in demand.
1. It's "cool".
2. Nostalgia and historical.
3. Artistic (the make-up of the dial and form of the case).
4. Engineering (the intricacies of the movement and the overall quality).
(I am disregarding investment as it has nothing to do with genuine collecting.)
1 is ephemeral and unpredictable. So is 2 albeit less so. 3 and 4 are immutable. Tastes come and go but there will always be people who appreciate beauty, fine engineering and quality of manufacture for their own sake. A good dial is as much a work of art as a good painting, a good case ditto to a good sculpture and a good movement is these two and more. Fine mechanical watches represent a branch of engineering now widely replaced by plastic and electronics, and enough time has passed since the quartz revolution to see them for their intrinsic quality irrespective of current fashions.
So I don't think watch collecting will ever die. It may still be at fever pitch and climbing, but that will settle down in a few years once the media find something new to talk about. Some brands and models will fall by the wayside but fine examples of high-quality watches will always be in demand.
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Omega world
·I read this thread with interest....the population grows every second, the child became adults,they all have passions....vintage watches included.....good vintage watches will became hard to find in the future,and there value will go high more and more....I love my watches,like all in here(i hope), and they will be my inheritance for my daughter.
I will put here the World Population Clock,so all of you have clear this idea.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
I will put here the World Population Clock,so all of you have clear this idea.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
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STANDY
·@Beepos Thank you for sharing your POV. It’s interesting to read the perspective of someone your age. One question: if Apple or someone else brings out a killer app/s for a smart watch and you decide to switch to one as your daily wearer, do you think you would keep collecting vintage watches or would your interest wane?
He’s got to wear something when the tech watch is charging 😉
