I do not believe that the current vintage watch market is strong, outside of the most desirable models, or those in particularly good condition, nor do I expect that to change anytime soon, due to broader economic factors. But over the longer term, I have little doubt that the market will both survive and thrive. I say that for a number of reasons.
First, the period that most collectors would consider to be vintage is roughly 1940-70, and a strong argument could be made that it coincides with what might be called the
Golden Age of watchmaking. Without going into detail, some of the finest calibers ever developed came from that period, along with many classic designs that will always be present in the DNA of a high percentage of subsequently produced mechanical watches.
Secondly, and along the same lines, can anyone think of another complex, precision mechanical instrument manufactured 50-80 years ago that is capable of performing nearly as well as its contemporary descendents? A high-quality, well maintained and adjusted vintage chronometer should be well capable of performance similar to this, from Omega's current marketing for its MASTER CHRONOMETER line:
Official Swiss Chronometer Control (
COSC) with precision criteria of -4/+6 seconds per day.
Of course there have been technical advancements, but when compared with, say, automobiles, the relative capabilities of high-quality vintage watches today are remarkable, and I would say that this, often overlooked factor, will likely benefit the market for as long as it exists.
Thirdly, there are, of course, a number of factors which contribute to the popularity of subsets of vintage markets. One factor that I would suggest is also often overlooked, or, put another way, perhaps only subconsciously registered, is that items from certain periods may be associated with the tenor of those times. The '50s and '60s happened to have been a very optimistic period, during which memories of the horrible wars were fading, economies were growing rapidly, and a broad swath of the middle-classes began to accumulate money to spend on other than necessities. It is true that those of us who were alive during that time are getting old, but I expect that it will continue to be seen as a golden era for much more than just vintage watches, and that the institutional memory will help to bolster the value of most collectables that are associated with it.
Finally, a segment of the population is already pushing back at the rapid technological progress that has been made in recent decades, and I rather doubt that this type of ambivalence will disappear anytime soon. Of course there have been tremendous benefits to many related advancements, but a significant number of people, quite reasonably I would argue, are very concerned about associated downsides. Those reactions are sometimes expressed through efforts to simplify one's life. To use one of countless examples, I drive a 2010 Audi, and am more satisfied than I would be if I were to drive a new car, as I find the latter to typically be over-engineered. In other words, I have more than just a soft spot for simpler machines, and generally prefer to own them for practical reasons, as well. That's not to suggest that vintage watches will become increasingly popular for their timekeeping capabilities, but rather that they will remain attractive alternatives to computers worn on wrists, or carried in pockets, and for a variety of reasons.
