I found a treasure at a local store yesterday, a funky two-tone version of the Seiko 4006 BellMatic from 1971. I collect vintage Seiko, so I plunked down $150 for it, even though I didn't really covet this model. "Meh, I'll keep it in the box a few months, wear it a few times then flip it", I thought. Then I posted pics to IG, and another collector reached out enquiring if I'd sell it. A few Google searches and I priced it at $300, with the smug satisfaction that I could double my money in a matter of hours with an easy flip. Then a funny thing happened. I phoned a friend who suggested it's worth closer to $500. It being gold-plated, they never show up in good condition, like mine, with the plating intact, so I should ask $450. My college economics professor will tell you that because decisions are rational, I should now be even more smug and sell without hesitation. If it was a good deal selling at $300, it's a better deal at $450. Alas, we are not rational. The realization that my piece was coveted, made me covet it more. Suddenly, the unique two-tone coffin-link bracelet and oh-so-70s brown dial are boldly attractive to my greedy eyes. Why was I ever considering selling it? I want to keep it forever. It has long been known that consumers are not rational. This has spawned the rise of Behavioral Economics, a branch which accepts this as a foundational tenet, and is now the dominate branch of econ in many areas. I'm not sure if the particular bias I've fallen for has a name, but it seems like the opposite of anchoring bias. Regardless, its influence is powerful. I've already moved the BellMatic from my backup case to my main case. To be clear, it's not that I've decided to hold the watch because it's worth more (an economic choice), it's that knowing someone else wants it made me like its funky style and unique colors more. That's not rational, but it is very, very human.
Hi @bradurani I have seen this before..... I studied economics years ago in university and I would have loved a course in behavioral economics or whatever its called... I majored in economics and I would have loved diving into "BE" and I would have gone on to a masters in that area... I used to have conversations with friends and family as I would show watches, clocks etc... The object does not make a difference... I would show a watch and ask what they thought of it... there is what i call the " scrap " value of the object... what an " observer " see the object and has a value in his/ her head.. I then tell them something about the object... Then when you give additional such as that is the "same model watch that was worn on the moon".. they would come up with a perceived value they typically the value in their mind ( some time twice scrap , sometimes an order of magnitude more ). Now with the Internet .... " internet effect " ... they quickly google the model or something sort of the same.... They see prices and others collectors who have a much higher perceived value of the object... plus with the onslaught of digital accumulators ( magnifiers, propagators, ).... I have been a moderator on watch websites since 92.... sites like Timezone, Watchnet, WUS, PuristPro and the like and then Facebook groups , instagram , Hodenkee and Fratello .... Getting more eyes on fixed number of watches... ( at-lest vintage watches ). Its very very interesting.... fixed number of whatever vintage object ... and an ever expanding number of potential collectors... Good Hunting Bill Sohne
In high-school, I remember friends and I joking about the "fox" effect, whereby members of the opposite sex were considerably more desirable when they were with someone already. The fact that someone already "wanted" them seemed to make them that much more enticing, along with the "want what you can't have" effect... At least you have the watch!
Some of the most successful, best collectors, investors and business people never studied economics. They would argue the study would actually have biased their thinking. It's certainly been biasing thinking at the FED! How has anything in formal economic teaching predicted what is going on right now? I'm in the Nicholas Taleb camp.. It's all behavioural (and nothing can be predicted) IMO...
......that used to be my thought too, the years (many,many) seem to disprove the theory I fear. Soldier on my friend.
