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When Does The Stock Selloff End (or, should I invest in SS Rolex models?)

dsio
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I had a mate who was a fairly big speculator on Rolex unload all but the 6 pieces he intends to wear himself over the last couple of months and he's pretty happy to be out of them now given the recent dip, probably 60-80 of the most sought after steel models and a dozen in gold. One of the local dealers he was unloading them through was only taking modern Rolex on consignment towards the end of that as he's worried they're not as stable as they were just months ago.
 
JwRosenthal
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I’ve been watching Tudors take a dip recently too- BB58’s well under $3k, GMT’s just above it. Perhaps sanity is on the horizon.
 
johnireland
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You need a discipline for when to buy and when to sell, and it should be testable for accuracy for the last 100 years. And then you must stick with that discipline or there is no point in having it. I use that when the S&P 500 is goes 6% below its 200 day moving average, I am totally out of all stocks. And when it get to 3% above its 200 day moving average, I ladder back in at 30-60 day intervals...sometimes in two 50% big steps, other times in 3 or 4 smaller but equal steps. The back in steps depends on overall conditions but I stick with the discipline. There are only two instances in the last 80 years when this did not work optimally...and still losses were minimal compared to buying and holding. This formula is for retired people, or those close to retirement (ten years?) who don't have ten or more years to hopefully regain lost wealth. The goal of this program is to have your money last as long as you do. It requires a serious analysis of your needs, goals, and assets to accomplish your end game. It does not use stocking picking or market timing or cyclical rotation of stock segments that are in or out. It uses the S&P 500 as a broad measurement of the economy's health. If you are 25, you have time to try and get lucky. If you are fifty, something more cautious and structured may serve you better. And if you are already retired, you no long can afford to play games, you need a level of growth designed specifically for your needs, and you need protection of principal.
 
johnireland
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gbesq gbesq
Just kidding about investing in Rolex, but this is a watch forum after all. So by my reckoning, year to date the S&P 500 will be down more than 15% and the NASDAQ will be down close to 25% by the end of the trading day if the results this morning remain unchanged. So when does it make sense to get off the sidelines and up the percentage of my portfolio invested in stocks? Overheated U.S. economy? Inflation? Ukraine? Impending recession? Housing bubble? Locusts? Stainless steel Rolexes becoming abundant at less than MSRP? Who knows what the next few months will bring? Your guess is as good as mine, but my gut tells me that we're nearing the bottom for stocks. Maybe another month. Oh, and here's the obligatory watch photo:
679FD4E6-295D-44D2-9869-76209EEEA0AD.jpeg

I wouldn't invest in stainless steel sports Rolexes, they are already more than fully valued. But I would invest in mens 18k Rolexes and specific Omegas, plus other forms of gold jewelry that can often be found at estate sales at prices below melt value.
 
Archer
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FREDMAYCOIN FREDMAYCOIN
My swatch stock is still in the green
B3F86859-B15B-4112-8D65-EDD723BE2172.png

Amazing considering the predictions that the Moonswatch would do so much damage...🙄
 
johnireland
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gbesq gbesq
Although it’s early in the day here in the US, stock futures are not down as much as I expected in response to April’s inflation report. We’ll see where things go from here.

When you have a discipline, you are in charge of your money. When you don't, well I guess there's the power of prayer...but I prefer a discipline.
 
Omegafanman
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With inflation kicking in and interest rates on the up maybe the game is not to loose too much and keep your powder dry (and in the meantime follow the trends). I dont think bonds will save anyone so stock picking might be back in fashion....
I was also chatting to some military types with interesting CV's a couple or weeks back and for sure Rolex has often been a currency for them (between each other for short term loans and as a trade in far flung locatons)
 
LM.jpg
bradurani
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johnireland johnireland
You need a discipline for when to buy and when to sell, and it should be testable for accuracy for the last 100 years. And then you must stick with that discipline or there is no point in having it. I use that when the S&P 500 is goes 6% below its 200 day moving average, I am totally out of all stocks. And when it get to 3% above its 200 day moving average, I ladder back in at 30-60 day intervals...sometimes in two 50% big steps, other times in 3 or 4 smaller but equal steps. The back in steps depends on overall conditions but I stick with the discipline. There are only two instances in the last 80 years when this did not work optimally...and still losses were minimal compared to buying and holding. This formula is for retired people, or those close to retirement (ten years?) who don't have ten or more years to hopefully regain lost wealth. The goal of this program is to have your money last as long as you do. It requires a serious analysis of your needs, goals, and assets to accomplish your end game. It does not use stocking picking or market timing or cyclical rotation of stock segments that are in or out. It uses the S&P 500 as a broad measurement of the economy's health. If you are 25, you have time to try and get lucky. If you are fifty, something more cautious and structured may serve you better. And if you are already retired, you no long can afford to play games, you need a level of growth designed specifically for your needs, and you need protection of principal.

Honest question, not being flippant: Isn't that selling low and buying high? You're intentionally giving up 9% there. If you're withdrawing money to cover expenses, I can see why you'd want to be out, because if it dips say 20%, selling shares to cover expenses would be painful. Maybe just sell off part of your portfolio, to cover 18 months of expenses, but keep the rest invested, since you believe it will recover eventually?
What worries me about this strategy, is it's we're more likely to see a 6% dip and recovery than a 20% dip and recovery, and that's worse case scenario for this strategy since you give up 9% and don't get any benefit.
 
Omegafanman
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bradurani bradurani
Honest question, not being flippant: Isn't that selling low and buying high? You're intentionally giving up 9% there. If you're withdrawing money to cover expenses, I can see why you'd want to be out, because if it dips say 20%, selling shares to cover expenses would be painful. Maybe just sell off part of your portfolio, to cover 18 months of expenses, but keep the rest invested, since you believe it will recover eventually?
What worries me about this strategy, is it's we're more likely to see a 6% dip and recovery than a 20% dip and recovery, and that's worse case scenario for this strategy since you give up 9% and don't get any benefit.

What about income and transaction costs…. Dividends are nice too….
 
bmpennington
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Watches including Rolex can definitely be an investment if you buy right.
 
johnireland
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bradurani bradurani
Honest question, not being flippant: Isn't that selling low and buying high? You're intentionally giving up 9% there. If you're withdrawing money to cover expenses, I can see why you'd want to be out, because if it dips say 20%, selling shares to cover expenses would be painful. Maybe just sell off part of your portfolio, to cover 18 months of expenses, but keep the rest invested, since you believe it will recover eventually?
What worries me about this strategy, is it's we're more likely to see a 6% dip and recovery than a 20% dip and recovery, and that's worse case scenario for this strategy since you give up 9% and don't get any benefit.

When you are basing your buys and sells on the 200 day moving average, it is very different than just buying or selling on a short term view of the market. At times you will give up a little bit of gain and in the process you avoid large losses. And you participate in the vast majority of the upside. You aren't the first to arrive at the party, nor the last to leave. I am (and have been for over a month) totally out of the bond market. None of this is based on the DOW or NASDAQ...it uses the S&P 500 which is a much broader and inclusive index with a wider variety of stocks that reflect a bigger picture. There are many forces at play in today's stock valuation. The process I have been describing has been back tested for over 100 years. It has worked and is working.
 
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