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When Does The Stock Selloff End (or, should I invest in SS Rolex models?)

Walrus
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Futures up this morning, surely must mean the bottom has come to pass, good call.
 
Samp
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motivated motivated
The trend is down. There are currently more reasons for the market to keep going down than for it to go back up. The market needs a catalyst for the trend to change. The Fed becoming moderately less hawkish could suffice. We also can expect a massive rebound when the war in Ukraine comes to an end, especially if US companies go back to doing business in Russia.

Do not expect western business in Russia anytime soon. Much would need to happen for sanctions to be revoked. On this front, I think things will only get worse.
 
Davidt
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Walrus Walrus
Futures up this morning, surely must mean the bottom has come to pass, good call.

I don’t think we’re anywhere near the bottom yet.
 
gbesq
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Davidt Davidt
I don’t think we’re anywhere near the bottom yet.
I agree that we have some way to go to get to the bottom, but never bet against the ability of corporate America to make money. Never a good idea.
 
BlackTalon
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Not every stock bottoms at the same time. Some are very, very hammered already. The willingness to jump in on some stocks really depends on how much time you have (unless you are a day trader)
 
Walrus
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Davidt Davidt
I don’t think we’re anywhere near the bottom yet.
I’m trying to be positive damnit. My wife and I sold off the Covid highflyers at the start of the dump. All the other stuff is apple, BRK-b etc solid stuff I’m planning on at least another decade so I really don’t watch the daily moves but I’m a bit addicted to financial news even though I’m a mere pee-on so I get bombarded with the “prophecies of doom” and “rose colored glasses” which seem to vary by the minute. Crypto I’ve been in for many years I’m still black but you gotta be crazy to be in crypto anyway I doubt it will go to 0 but it’s always possible
Edited:
 
pumpernikiel
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Samp Samp
Do not expect western business in Russia anytime soon. Much would need to happen for sanctions to be revoked. On this front, I think things will only get worse.
I am with you here, the sanctions already imposed on Russia will really start to hit in Q3/Q4 only. They do not feel it to the fullest extent yet. Even the head of central bank in RU confirms that the effect is yet to come. There are hundreds of western companies that went out from RU for good (supposedly), so for sure it will take time to turn this around.
 
Walrus
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pumpernikiel pumpernikiel
I am with you here, the sanctions already imposed on Russia will really start to hit in Q3/Q4 only. They do not feel it to the fullest extent yet. Even the head of central bank in RU confirms that the effect is yet to come. There are hundreds of western companies that went out from RU for good (supposedly), so for sure it will take time to turn this around.
One hates to consider even the thought but consider the impact if even a small tactical nuke or chemical or biological weapons were used by Russia. The implications for humanity would go far beyond the impact on the market but it would no doubt be extreme on both sides. I was watching a news show last night where former heads of state were saying the world is underestimating the possibilities for such an event happening. Let’s hope they are all wrong and reason will dictate such a thing from happening.
I saw an interview with Gorbachev where he stated he had an agreement with Reagan to dismantle/dispose of both countries nuclear arsenal and Reagan walked the day before the signing, history is a strange thing, hope that’s not to political
 
gbesq
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Walrus Walrus
One hates to consider even the thought but consider the impact if even a small tactical nuke or chemical or biological weapons were used by Russia. The implications for humanity would go far beyond the impact on the market but it would no doubt be extreme on both sides. I was watching a news show last night where former heads of state were saying the world is underestimating the possibilities for such an event happening. Let’s hope they are all wrong and reason will dictate such a thing from happening.
I saw an interview with Gorbachev where he stated he had an agreement with Reagan to dismantle/dispose of both countries nuclear arsenal and Reagan walked the day before the signing, history is a strange thing, hope that’s not to political
I think that Russia’s use of a tactical nuclear or a biological weapon is unlikely. That’s a step from which things are likely to quickly escalate with disastrous results for all concerned, Russia included. The US and other nuclear powers are very unlikely to be dissuaded from acting in the event that Russia takes that step. Putin and his inner circle of advisers and military strategists know this. Much more likely is that Putin will use chemical weapons in some limited fashion. As horrifying as that is, it’s unlikely in my view to provoke a full scale WWIII. Sadly, it has been done before.
 
Davidt
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Agree it’s extremely unlikely. Putins performance yesterday finally seems like a man in control of his functions so I can’t see it.
 
Walrus
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gbesq gbesq
I think that Russia’s use of a tactical nuclear or a biological weapon is unlikely. That’s a step from which things are likely to quickly escalate with disastrous results for all concerned, Russia included. The US and other nuclear powers are very unlikely to be dissuaded from acting in the event that Russia takes that step. Putin and his inner circle of advisers and military strategists know this. Much more likely is that Putin will use chemical weapons in some limited fashion. As horrifying as that is, it’s unlikely in my view to provoke a full scale WWIII. Sadly, it has been done before.
Yes I feel the same way, it’s just a series of former heads of state feel we are underestimating the possibility on a news show I watched which is why I brought it up, I report, you decide.
In my own personal life I have learned there are no nevers but some unfortunate agains I never planned for this very rarely do I think any event, no matter how unlikely or horrible, is impossible. It very well could be I am just too cynical and pessimistic and in need of a plethora of happy meds, maybe my fish oil caps aren’t strong enough.
 
Dsloan
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My gut tells me that the sell off will continue for awhile, unless we get a downside surprise on inflation soon. From a watch collecting standpoint, the worst part of this recession is the underlying inflation... My net worth is down and ss rolexes are still unobtainable.
 
FREDMAYCOIN
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Like mentioned above, this is a great time to average down and pick up a share or two of Amazon and alphabet since they will be splitting 20:1 soon
 
BlackTalon
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Got some of each the other day in my retirement account.2 years ago I switched out of individual stocks to all mutual funds, but right now it is hard to pass up a good sale on these two companies.
 
The Father
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Bought SBUX and WBA today 5/10/22

These two will rebound nicely. Not a gamble in my estimation.

My holding are diverse and the past drop hasn’t punished my like the overall market has gone
 
Watch my Whisky
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Too many structural and macro issues at play for us to be near the bottom. Fundamentals are key.

I rotated out of a bunch of tech late last year and was feeling pretty smug until a couple weeks ago.

Long on semiconductors and defence stocks.
 
Walrus
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FREDMAYCOIN FREDMAYCOIN
Like mentioned above, this is a great time to average down and pick up a share or two of Amazon and alphabet since they will be splitting 20:1 soon
Google gives you exposure to SpaceX. They invested several billion into SpaceX early on and some estimates put google stake in SpaceX at 8% though what I read varied. Another company sunk a large amount in spacex I’ll be darned if I can remember now but a quick search should tell you. I’ve been reading a lot of negatives about Amazon as I guess analysts are seeing brick and mortar shopping increase. Did they forget about AWS?
 
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