When Does The Stock Selloff End (or, should I invest in SS Rolex models?)

gbesq · May 9, 2022

Just kidding about investing in Rolex, but this is a watch forum after all. So by my reckoning, year to date the S&P 500 will be down more than 15% and the NASDAQ will be down close to 25% by the end of the trading day if the results this morning remain unchanged. So when does it make sense to get off the sidelines and up the percentage of my portfolio invested in stocks? Overheated U.S. economy? Inflation? Ukraine? Impending recession? Housing bubble? Locusts? Stainless steel Rolexes becoming abundant at less than MSRP? Who knows what the next few months will bring? Your guess is as good as mine, but my gut tells me that we're nearing the bottom for stocks. Maybe another month. Oh, and here's the obligatory watch photo:

Togri v. 2.0 · May 9, 2022

gbesq
Just kidding about investing in Rolex, but this is a watch forum after all. So by my reckoning, year to date the S&P 500 will be down more than 15% and the NASDAQ will be down close to 25% by the end of the trading day if the results this morning remain unchanged. So when does it make sense to get off the sidelines and up the percentage of my portfolio invested in stocks? Overheated U.S. economy? Inflation? Ukraine? Impending recession? Housing bubble? Locusts? Stainless steel Rolexes becoming abundant at less than MSRP? Who knows what the next few months will bring? Your guess is as good as mine, but my gut tells me that we're nearing the bottom for stocks. Maybe another month. Oh, and here's the obligatory watch photo:

I have taken a hit lately, especially my Chinese stocks. Not pretty. I would be hesitant to get in for more stocks now. Too many warning signs I think. But I am by no means an expert 😀

gbesq · May 9, 2022

Togri v. 2.0
I have taken a hit lately, especially my Chinese stocks. Not pretty. I would be hesitant to get in for more stocks now. Too many warning signs I think. But I am by no means an expert 😀

So you're worried about locusts too, then? 😁

meglos · May 9, 2022

I have always thought that the wealthy make money when things are bad, they buy low and ride it to the top instead of buying when it is high and hoping it goes higher. If someone can afford to buy and hold assets and wait for them to increase it's a near sure way to make money. The question is what to buy and how long you have to hold it the chance to cash out comes.

Waltesefalcon · May 9, 2022

My 403b has taken a hit lately, but I'm honestly considering putting more into it soon, as I feel like we'll hit bottom before long. I could be wrong and get screwed but I'm in it for the long haul (twenty more years until retirement) and I figure the stock market will have recovered nicely by then.

watchyouwant · May 9, 2022

Once the cheap money is history, the Stock market might be around 28000.... Or not.

gbesq · May 9, 2022

Waltesefalcon
My 403b has taken a bit lately, but I'm honestly considering putting more into it soon as I feel like we'll hit bottom before long. I could be wrong and get screwed but I'm in it for the long haul (twenty more years until retirement) and I figure the stock market will have recovered nicely by then.

Completely agree. Your risk is minimal at this point.

Donn Chambers · May 9, 2022

It really all depends on your age and goals. If you are in it for the long-term for retirement and aren't trying to do day-to-day trades to make quick profits, now is the time to buy. I'm a big proponent of dollar cost averaging, which is how I have been funding my retirement accounts since 1996. I put in a percentage of my salary each month and my employers match part of it (so free money there), and buy a fixed ratio of various mutual funds with the same amount of money each month. So in a downturn like this, I will buy more shares than normal. When the market starts going up again (which it always does), those extra shares I bought cheap are going to really start to boost my bottom line. I've ridden out two major recessions and the recent Pandemic-field downturn, but my gains have averaged 13.5% over the last 25 years.

Wouldn't want to be retired and pulling money out of the market now, of course. But that's why I plan to transition most of may portfolio to more stable products at a time when the market is high when I'm getting close. I have another 12 years or so before I seriously think about retirement, so I have plenty of time for a rebound. I'd rather loose a few tens of thousands because I bailed a little early rather than a few hundred thousand because I left too late.

BlackTalon · May 9, 2022

I started buying late last week, as I've had some cash sitting on the sideline. I'm pretty sure we'll see sub 30k for the DOW soon, but the more realistic averages have already seen pretty large pull-backs so they may have (hopefully) less downside at this point. The plan is to buy over 3-4 purchase dates over the next 1-2 months.

Dan S · May 9, 2022

I feel like we're getting close, both for the market and for BTC. Just not seeing quite enough panic yet for my taste.

pdxleaf · May 9, 2022

In a good old-fashioned bear market, panic needs to set in before a bottom. Then more churning. Imho, it has more room to drop.

Panic will set in when we see an increase in Rolex inventory and a seller does the first price drop bump. Then it's Release the Kraken.

keepsonticking · May 9, 2022

The market ebbs and wanes, but steel Rolex sport models (esp the Daytona) move every upward, with barely a hiccup in the worst markets.

As for stocks...you know they'll be up again, and if things are bad enough worldwide to keep them from moving up again, we will likely have bigger fish to fry. Never a bad idea to keep 50k in weapons and ammo.

gbesq · May 9, 2022

keepsonticking
The market ebbs and wanes, but steel Rolex sport models (esp the Daytona) move every upward, with barely a hiccup in the worst markets.

As for stocks...you know they'll be up again, and if things are bad enough worldwide to keep them from moving up again, we will likely have bigger fish to fry. Never a bad idea to keep 50k in weapons and ammo.

I can understand why the Submariner has its iconic status and such a following, but I have never been able to warm up to the Daytona. Not sure why. To me the Speedmaster is the iconic chronograph and I just find it so much more attractive than the Daytona which always seems to me to be trying too hard.

meglos · May 9, 2022

gbesq
. . . but I have never been able to warm up to the Daytona. Not sure why. To me the Speedmaster is the iconic chronograph and I just find it so much more attractive than the Daytona which always seems to me to be trying too hard.

Yep, yep, and yep. Speedmaster Great history, iconic clean design, and much more affordable. It's a win-win-win for the Omega.

pumpernikiel · May 9, 2022

Donn Chambers
It really all depends on your age and goals. If you are in it for the long-term for retirement and aren't trying to do day-to-day trades to make quick profits, now is the time to buy. I'm a big proponent of dollar cost averaging, which is how I have been funding my retirement accounts since 1996. I put in a percentage of my salary each month and my employers match part of it (so free money there), and buy a fixed ratio of various mutual funds with the same amount of money each month. So in a downturn like this, I will buy more shares than normal. When the market starts going up again (which it always does), those extra shares I bought cheap are going to really start to boost my bottom line. I've ridden out two major recessions and the recent Pandemic-field downturn, but my gains have averaged 13.5% over the last 25 years.

Wouldn't want to be retired and pulling money out of the market now, of course. But that's why I plan to transition most of may portfolio to more stable products at a time when the market is high when I'm getting close. I have another 12 years or so before I seriously think about retirement, so I have plenty of time for a rebound. I'd rather loose a few tens of thousands because I bailed a little early rather than a few hundred thousand because I left too late.

I am trying to do the same pattern as you mentionned but i must say that i am a bit stressed out when I see all red on stock markets on daily basis now. I think what is sensible is to keep on going as you described and try not to check those results on daily basis.

YY77 · May 9, 2022

pumpernikiel
i must say that i am a bit stressed out when I see all red on stock markets on daily basis now. I think what is sensible is to keep on going as you described and try not to check those results on daily basis.

In the Netherlands there is a retirement plan partly covered by a government social fund and other part via a mandatory pension fund when employed, we just sit back and wait what we'll get on a monthly basis, we are able to check the progression (fluctuates depending on how the stock goes up or down).

Donn Chambers · May 9, 2022

pumpernikiel
I am trying to do the same pattern as you mentionned but i must say that i am a bit stressed out when I see all red on stock markets on daily basis now. I think what is sensible is to keep on going as you described and try not to check those results on daily basis.

definitely do not check daily. I check once a year shortly before I meet with my financial planner and we discuss if we are going to make any changes.

case in point: I was convinced to switch to a “Guided Portfolio” for one of my sub-accounts (I have about 4 because of moving between different universities and changes in state law on the types of assets allowed), but in one I’m no longer buying new shares monthly, just reinvesting interest and dividends into new shares and letting it grow. Guess which one did better? Not the “guided portfolio” which used an moderate-aggressive management plan and quarterly adjustments of selling/buying based on forecasts. The accounts with the “let it ride and continue investing” have all done about 1-2% better over the last 10 years.

Dan S · May 9, 2022

Maybe it's a good time for collectors to sell some of the watches they've been hoarding and buy stock. Just sayin'. 😗

sxl2004 · May 9, 2022

Nice try

pumpernikiel · May 10, 2022

Donn Chambers
definitely do not check daily. I check once a year shortly before I meet with my financial planner and we discuss if we are going to make any changes

Good point, yet always tempted especially when you have all the apps now that can tell you how you're doing at the reach of your fingertips