watch industry seems slower than it's ever been

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I think this was discussed in another thread- about the summer slump, and that the top end pieces continue to rise and trading is brisk but the lower end pieces are sitting- the divide between upper and lower class in the watch world.

That said, we have 4 houses on my block for sale they have been sitting for months- 3 of them vacant as the sellers already moved out- and this is one of the best neighborhoods in the city. A brisk economy I am not seeing on the ground, only on paper.

Which makes the Fed rate cut somewhat disturbing... after 11 years of all time low rates they _still_ feel like they have to juice it by a 0.25% rate cut!
 
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That said, we have 4 houses on my block for sale they have been sitting for months- 3 of them vacant as the sellers already moved out- and this is one of the best neighborhoods in the city. A brisk economy I am not seeing on the ground, only on paper.

Interesting - here it's the opposite. Houses don't stay for sale for long here at all, and you typically get offers well over asking. The government has introduced some larger stress tests on buyers, but that has been just a small blip and not a big impact on sales. Houses being built everywhere and land running out. That's why the fields behind my house will be a 300+ home subdivision in the near future...
 
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Interesting - here it's the opposite. Houses don't stay for sale for long here at all, and you typically get offers well over asking. The government has introduced some larger stress tests on buyers, but that has been just a small blip and not a big impact on sales. Houses being built everywhere and land running out. That's why the fields behind my house will be a 300+ home subdivision in the near future...
And that’s what the news & government is reporting here too- brisk markets, a great economy, houses selling rapidly, great wealth to be had for all- but that’s not what many of us are seeing in reality and scratching our heads at the disparity.
 
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... and land running out.

In Canada. Let me put my drink down. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha 😀
 
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In Canada. Let me put my drink down. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha 😀

Yes. Land that is available for development in specific communities is running out. If you have ever been involved in municipal politics and planning, you will understand what I mean. One of the big challenges is services, since regulations require that new developments have specific services that make creating new developments outside current settlement areas quite expensive.

Yes, Canada is a vast country with a lot of land, but unless you want to be a mountain man living completely cut off from civilization, jobs, etc. you are looing for housing in areas that are already populated, so looking at the land mass available and concluding there's tons of room for development is very simplistic view. Something like 75% of the Canadian population lives within 161 km (100 miles for the Americans) of the Canada/US border...
 
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Yes. Land that is available for development in specific communities is running out. If you have ever been involved in municipal politics and planning, you will understand what I mean. One of the big challenges is services, since regulations require that new developments have specific services that make creating new developments outside current settlement areas quite expensive.

Yes, Canada is a vast country with a lot of land, but unless you want to be a mountain man living completely cut off from civilization, jobs, etc. you are looing for housing in areas that are already populated, so looking at the land mass available and concluding there's tons of room for development is very simplistic view. Something like 75% of the Canadian population lives within 161 km (100 miles for the Americans) of the Canada/US border...
I know all that, but there will still be a huge amount of land suitable for building. It’s ALL about planning.
 
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I know all that, but there will still be a huge amount of land suitable for building. It’s ALL about planning.

It's actually all about money. For example unless you are a lone house out in the middle of the country, you can't use a septic system. The small community I live in had a population of about 460 people a few years ago all on septic. When the first new development went in a couple of years ago, it required the construction of a sewage treatment plant, costing millions in construction and study costs. All new construction in the area will be hooked to this system, and that will be in total about 500 new homes.

For 30 years this was not considered economical, because there was plenty of land that could be serviced for far less available in surrounding communities, but as I said all that land is running out. The nearby city of 400,000 has no place left to build within their boundaries...one reason why the development in my area is happening. This is what land shortage looks like, and the costs for the municipalities, developers, and eventually the new homeowners will be significant.

Again taking the simplistic view is not showing the whole picture here.
 
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Flash forward ten years after a market “correction” and the developers backed out after they had the municipality clear the land, build the sewage and water plant, and invest in new infrastructure- and you have vacant lots, partially built sub-divisions that are ghost towns and what was once beautiful landscape looking like an apocalyptic scene...and your still paying off all that new infrastructure. This is a reality in many places here in the US after the 2008 collapse.
 
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It's actually all about money. For example unless you are a lone house out in the middle of the country, you can't use a septic system. The small community I live in had a population of about 460 people a few years ago all on septic. When the first new development went in a couple of years ago, it required the construction of a sewage treatment plant, costing millions in construction and study costs. All new construction in the area will be hooked to this system, and that will be in total about 500 new homes.

For 30 years this was not considered economical, because there was plenty of land that could be serviced for far less available in surrounding communities, but as I said all that land is running out. The nearby city of 400,000 has no place left to build within their boundaries...one reason why the development in my area is happening. This is what land shortage looks like, and the costs for the municipalities, developers, and eventually the new homeowners will be significant.

Again taking the simplistic view is not showing the whole picture here.

Stating the simplistic view doesn’t mean I have the simplistic view. I bet one of the biggest costs is still land with permission to build. What’s the difference in cost between agricultural land and land with permission to build ? That’s a completely fabricated cost that comes entirely from planning.

But talking housing is bad for my health ! And the sick housing system in the UK is one of the reasons I left. Much happier to talk about a sick watch 😁

 
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Stating the simplistic view doesn’t mean I have the simplistic view. I bet one of the biggest costs is still land with permission to build. What’s the difference in cost between agricultural land and land with permission to build ? That’s a completely fabricated cost that comes entirely from planning.

But talking housing is bad for my health ! And the sick housing system in the UK is one of the reasons I left. Much happier to talk about a sick watch 😁

Poor thing. That’s just on edge of my wabi-Sabi limit. Could that dial be cleaned up at all in the hands of an expert? Or is it just too fragile?
 
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Yes. Land that is available for development in specific communities is running out. If you have ever been involved in municipal politics and planning, you will understand what I mean. One of the big challenges is services, since regulations require that new developments have specific services that make creating new developments outside current settlement areas quite expensive.

Yes, Canada is a vast country with a lot of land, but unless you want to be a mountain man living completely cut off from civilization, jobs, etc. you are looing for housing in areas that are already populated, so looking at the land mass available and concluding there's tons of room for development is very simplistic view. Something like 75% of the Canadian population lives within 161 km (100 miles for the Americans) of the Canada/US border...

I’m from Canada but obviously live in the US now. When my grandparents or before settled in Canada, they were sent to the prairies, Saskatchewan and Manitoba mostly to populate the land and set up communities. I understand it was different then with most jobs agricultural and easier to do but that’s what should be done today to manage immigration. My grandfather was a watchmaker and his town had about 600 or so. If they made new immigrants populate less dense areas of the country there wouldn’t be the stress on existing communities.
 
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Funny thing about this picture is that I posted it at 11:58 an d that's more or less the time on the watch but it's a weeks old picture. I guess I have a predictable post schedule!
 
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sharp looking watch.

hqdefault.jpg
 
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Flash forward ten years after a market “correction” and the developers backed out after they had the municipality clear the land, build the sewage and water plant, and invest in new infrastructure- and you have vacant lots, partially built sub-divisions that are ghost towns and what was once beautiful landscape looking like an apocalyptic scene...and your still paying off all that new infrastructure. This is a reality in many places here in the US after the 2008 collapse.

Although here in Canada we didn't have this sort of thing happen the last time around (our banking system is highly regulated compared the wild west of the US system, so the exposure to the garbage being sold down there was small), trust me it's top of everyone's mind right now, and we all understand that it won't take much for all this new development to not move forward. Our neighbourhood association has been working with (fighting) municipal council on a number of things related to all this, and we have encouraged them at every opportunity to ensure that the municipality, meaning the taxpayers, are not left holding the bag if all this falls through.

Unfortunately the council wants a "legacy" project, and they are terrified that the developer will walk away, which they nearly did when the current residents expressed our feelings about their plan.

The municipality has spent countless millions that we will be stuck dealing with, along with ongoing operational costs, if this all falls through.
 
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Stating the simplistic view doesn’t mean I have the simplistic view. I bet one of the biggest costs is still land with permission to build. What’s the difference in cost between agricultural land and land with permission to build ? That’s a completely fabricated cost that comes entirely from planning.

Not sure you are familiar enough with the planning process and what has to be done here. Of course serviced land is more expensive, but that is in large part due to the services provided - in other words why our main road has been torn up all spring and summer, running services down to the entrance of the new subdivision.

I suppose you could call anything related to the process of devlopment "planning" and say that's the reason...
Edited:
 
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. If they made new immigrants populate less dense areas of the country there wouldn’t be the stress on existing communities.

Tried in Australia, didn’t work. They stayed the few years they had to and when subsidies to do so ran out, they moved to the big cities. Some stayed which was good but not enough to say it worked.

Currently where I live is a shrinking population (-4% a year) due to the cost to live in Northern Australia. We have been lobbying for tax offsetting but apparently that’s not going to happen until the government realises it’s costing them more for services ( currently the government pays for flights for medical treatments that are not available )
 
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Tried in Australia, didn’t work. They stayed the few years they had to and when subsidies to do so ran out, they moved to the big cities. Some stayed which was good but not enough to say it worked.

Currently where I live is a shrinking population (-4% a year) due to the cost to live in Northern Australia. We have been lobbying for tax offsetting but apparently that’s not going to happen until the government realises it’s costing them more for services ( currently the government pays for flights for medical treatments that are not available )
Of course it was the late 1800s when my ancestors moved there, so things were different. Back then it was a good idea