Wait times - Rolex vs New Vehicle / Final Results

Covid has been the excuse for all mismanagement for the last year. Plenty of used out there (both cars and watches) particularly if you are looking for something that’s not an appliance. Prices are higher than one would normally see, but both the wife and I have new to us cars within the last 2 months and despite no room for negotiation, we shopped smart and found oddity models that were priced well. Financing is insanely cheap right now so didn’t have to cough up a big chunk of cash upfront.

There’s a similar problem with bicycles. I ordered a new 2021 Trek Domane last November. It has now been changed to the 2022 model and the current prediction is it will be here sometime between Christmas and New Years.

funny thing, I actually managed to buy a new car this year, in May, without my trouble at all. It was a Subaru and the 2020 model, but had just arrived. And I even got 0% financing for 4 years.

If you would settle for a normal 4-cylinder TLX, you might have more luck. Just did a deal for my father who brought in a 2019 Kia Optima coming off lease to trade in. I’ve never seen a car market where one can have almost $9,000 in positive equity on a lease. But it happened. He ended up getting a loaded TLX Advance for the roughly same payment as he was making for the Kia. A huge upgrade IMO.



The dealer is making more money on both ends than they would have made in a normal market.

Crazy times.
gatorcpa

You haven’t been to a Kia dealer lately. For a K5 GT, they are asking $8K–10K over MSRP. If you want a Telluride, you are looking at $15K and up premium.

Just too stupid.
gatorcpa

I see no similarity whatsoever.

In the case of automobiles, what we are seeing is a mismatch of supply of demand due to a temporary but significant pinching of the supply chain due to factories totally ceasing production for several months due to a global pandemic. Toyota/Lexus planned better than Kia/Hyundai/Genesis and it shows based on available vehicles on their lots.

In the case of Rolex, this is an artificial shortage created by a private company. Rolex could produce many more watches than they do, but they choose not to. As a private company, that is their right.

Governments (whether capitalist or socialist) simply cannot keep up with rapid changes in markets. When they get involved, that’s when true scarcity and black markets flourish.
gatorcpa

The new car/used car situation is crazy. My local Mazda dealer had been hounding me for months to trade in my 2018 Mazda 6 with 54,000 miles. I finally gave in and purchased a new 2021 Mazda 6 in early June and traded in the 2018 as part of the deal. The new car is essentially the same vehicle as the one I traded in but for some upgraded technology. I was shocked at what the dealership initially offered for my trade (far more than I expected) and the offer went up even more when I started to haggle. Long story short, the dealership paid off the existing loan on my 2018 ($9,500), sold me the new car for no money down, got me 0% financing, and my monthly payment went DOWN by more than $140. The salesperson told me that dealerships are desperate for used cars because the supply of new cars has been disrupted by supply chain issues (mostly due to microchip shortages) due to Covid. As a result, used car values have skyrocketed. The dealership sold my 2018 a few weeks after I traded it for just a few thousand dollars less than I paid for the 2021. I doubt that I’ll ever see a deal like that on a new car again. My new wheels:

The car situation has me on edge a bit. I just hit 80k miles on a Lincoln which I like a lot as it’s a SUV, I can load it up at Home Depot and still looks like a decent car for everyday driving but once you start hitting 80k usually the repairs start. I’ve done nothing but brakes so far and no immediate signs of issues. Most of the 80k is highway miles. But cars come with planned obsolescence. I just don’t like putting a lot of money into cars. I know people are selling used for great prices now but I will just always view cars as depreciating assets which I try to avoid putting money into. Having 70 container ships sitting off ports or docks is not normal. Especially when the wait unload is now weeks instead of days. Who knows how long this will last. The cost of one container went from 2,500 to 25,000 with the bulk of that increase being in that last few years. I read an article explaining some of the situation but all the percentages leave my mind very quickly. I’m think I’m just going to ride it out. I really hate buying cars and houses. If I could get buy with a horse I think I’d prefer that. I know they aren't cheap either and I’d have to go all mountain man garb during winter but I think it would be nice to build a bond with your transportation.
Is hay expensive now as well? Cause gas is crazy. How the hell it go up this quick? Now we are asking Saudi Arabia to kick up production? Will we look back on this and laugh someday. Let’s say, for sake of argument much of this is due to covid. It’s been a horrible virus and every death was/is tragic but it’s amazing that an illness with a 1 to 2% survivability rate can turn things upside down in such major way, what if we get one with a 20-40% mortality rate.
Shoot wandered off sorry but yeah just gonna drive the Lincoln as long as it will go if cars are this crazy to deal with at the moment I would rather avoid that scene. I try to get to the dealership for oil changes and when I have gone, last time three months ago, the dealership was pretty packed which wasn't the case before this virus payed us a visit.