A bad thing I'd say. With this rate of return surely the watches we love will increasingly be hoovered up by people only interested in investment return. Already for people of 'ordinary' means, but a genuine appreciation of aesthetic and technical characteristics, the opportunities to find and buy an early Speedy are becoming increasingly rare. As with many things in life the underlying principle is not the problem - it's the sheer rate of change that creates difficulty. Incidentally, as a retired person with savings, I'm as keen as anyone to find alternative means of investment, but with things like cars and watches I really do regret the fact that collectable examples are rapidly becoming inaccessible.

 

I have been following the prices for vintage Speedmasters for approximately a year now, and I do agree with you..
the 145.022 68-69-70 have nearly risen 50% in 12 months.
Great Investment !

 

Famous last words. Values of most vintage watches will be punished when the current bubble pops. Not to say that the best of the most desirable won't hold their values better than most – they will. But anyone expecting the performance of the past few years to be repeated over the next few years will be in for a very rude awakening.

 

Personally I purchase for enjoyment and expect nothing more, given my luck with so called safe investments and my age watches are not in the equation

 

Any data to support that? Or just a hunch? Or just you believe everything cyclical and we are due? I think predicting the watch market is as worthless as predicting the stock market.

 

keep it over here: https://omegaforums.net/threads/where-the-economy-is-heading-and-why.33679/

 

Ed White - 100% in last 12 months. Crazy.

 

In the UK it seems to have become much harder in the past year or so to find pie pan Constellations that aren't completely ruined or redialled, and people seem to be asking noticeably higher starting prices. And what's happening with vintage dive watches? On ebay I've recently seen a starting price of £1750 for an admittedly very nice SM120, a BIN of £5000 (!) for a Watchco 565 SM300 and starting prices upwards of £1000 for Cosmic 2000 divers with one at a BIN of £2000. And as for original 60s SM300s.....

I don't foresee a crash when prices get too high. I do see a crash when the day finally comes that savings pay the rates of interest they did ten years ago and everybody wants to convert their investments into cash at once.

 

Possibility of Bank of England doing QE this Thursday will push that day waaaay into the future.

 

Keep in mind the bubble always bursts. I have a fair amount of savings that are not even keeping up with inflation. I noticed last year (4th quarter) that silver was very low. I moved a portion of savings to silver ( Canadian maple leafs and U.S. silver Dollars) right now it appears my move was fortuitous. It will fall again, the question, is when.
With the current marketing and popularity of Omega, I think all watches that have a unique place in Omega's history have a better than average chance of achieving appreciation.

 

As with all collectables, the watches that will beat fashions and fads are the superb examples of the most interesting and attractive models. Rarity alone doesn't cut it. It will be the watch that you thought, wow this is beyond fantastic but Hell didn't just I overpay outrageously for it! that people will be fighting to offer you a handsome profit on, very possibly surprisingly soon after you bought it.

 

Spoken like someone who regrets having sold some, now more valuable, watches.

 

Silver, gold, real estate, stocks (tullips ) all can approach bubble status because their price rise is usually fueled by debt. The more leverage involved, the less the staying power of the owner to ride out issues. I don't know of any way to purchase collectibles, such as watches, with a mortgage. Unless a watch buyer is stupidly using other debt supplied cash (such as a margin loan against a stock portfolio), I don't believe any price drops would approach crash like drama. That being said, you still have to be smart and buy right. Both the collectible and it's price.

 

As with everyone else, I have been pleasantly surprised by the big ramp up in speedy prices over the past 18 months (only because I already own a few). I am sure 2019 and the 50th anniversary of the moon landing may keep things frothy for a while yet. Will prices crash at some point? I don't think so, as there is a limited supply. Will prices keep ramping up. No. at some point the market will decide that enough is enough and prices will likely start plateauing.

 

That's because nobody foresaw Speedmaster Lemmings.

 

the one thing i can predict with certainty is that i will continue to desire to buy more pieces.

 

Wrong, actually. I have been very happy to have sold some watches in recent years at multiples of what I originally paid for them, and couldn't care less if they have gained value subsequently.

I also sold a condo in FL in 2006, realized a very nice profit, and slept very well through the crash.

I am always happy to be early when it comes to bubbles, as leaving some potential profits on the table is far preferable to being caught in the downdraft after they burst.

 

Believe me you can easily use debt to purchase watches. They make it very easy to. I don't know if there is a bubble forming but I can certainly see values become flat for quite a while allowing inflation to wipe out gains. I'm not convinced that stainless steel sports watches will always be as popular as today and I'm not saying that to knock them or anything. The price of almost all assets classes is high right now as a result of the money price (debt) being low. This can change. Remember the early 1980s?